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Prediction of Relapse After Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Cessation in Crohn's Disease: Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis of 1317 Patients From 14 Studies

RWM. Pauwels, CJ. van der Woude, D. Nieboer, EW. Steyerberg, MJ. Casanova, JP. Gisbert, NA. Kennedy, CW. Lees, E. Louis, T. Molnár, K. Szántó, E. Leo, S. Bots, R. Downey, M. Lukas, WC. Lin, A. Amiot, C. Lu, X. Roblin, K. Farkas, JB. Seidelin, M....

. 2022 ; 20 (8) : 1671-1686.e16. [pub] 20210430

Jazyk angličtina Země Spojené státy americké

Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, metaanalýza, přehledy, práce podpořená grantem

Perzistentní odkaz   https://www.medvik.cz/link/bmc22024987

Grantová podpora
MR/S034919/1 Medical Research Council - United Kingdom

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tools for stratification of relapse risk of Crohn's disease (CD) after anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy cessation are needed. We aimed to validate a previously developed prediction model from the diSconTinuation in CrOhn's disease patients in stable Remission on combined therapy with Immunosuppressants (STORI) trial, and to develop an updated model. METHODS: Cohort studies were selected that reported on anti-TNF cessation in 30 or more CD patients in remission. Individual participant data were requested for luminal CD patients and anti-TNF treatment duration of 6 months or longer. The discriminative ability (concordance-statistic [C-statistic]) and calibration (agreement between observed and predicted risks) were explored for the STORI model. Next, an updated prognostic model was constructed, with performance assessment by cross-validation. RESULTS: This individual participant data meta-analysis included 1317 patients from 14 studies in 11 countries. Relapses after anti-TNF cessation occurred in 632 of 1317 patients after a median of 13 months. The pooled 1-year relapse rate was 38%. The STORI prediction model showed poor discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.51). The updated model reached a moderate discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.59), and included clinical symptoms at cessation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4), younger age at diagnosis (HR, 1.5 for A1 (age at diagnosis ≤16 years) vs A2 (age at diagnosis 17 - 40 years); 95% CI, 1.11-1.89), no concomitant immunosuppressants (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.18-172), smoking (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.15-1.67), second line anti-TNF (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69), upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (HR, 1.3 for L4 vs non-L4; 95% CI, 0.96-1.79), adalimumab (HR, 1.22 vs infliximab; 95% CI, 0.99-1.50), age at cessation (HR, 1.2 per 10 years younger; 95% CI, 1-1.33), C-reactive protein (HR, 1.04 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08), and longer disease duration (HR, 1.07 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17). In subanalysis, the discriminative ability of the model improved by adding fecal calprotectin (C-statistic, 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: This updated prediction model showed a reasonable discriminative ability, exceeding the performance of a previously published model. It might be useful to guide clinical decisions on anti-TNF therapy cessation in CD patients after further validation.

1st Department of Medicine University of Szeged Szeged Hungary

Department of Biomedical Data Sciences Leiden University Medical Center Leiden The Netherlands

Department of Digestive Diseases Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío Seville Spain

Department of Gastro Enterology INSERM CIC 1408 Paris France

Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Amsterdam University Medical Center Academic Medical Centre Amsterdam The Netherlands

Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Liège Liège Belgium

Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam The Netherlands

Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Royal Hallamshire Hospital Sheffield Teaching Hospitals National Health Service Foundation Trust Sheffield United Kingdom

Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Western General Hospital Edinburgh United Kingdom

Department of Gastroenterology Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Paris Paris Est Creteil University Henri Mondor Hospital Paris Est Creteil University

Department of Gastroenterology Herlev Hospital Herlev Denmark

Department of Gastroenterology Hospital Universitario de La Princesa Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Princesa Universidad Autónoma de Madrid Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas Madrid Spain

Department of Gastroenterology Paris Est Créteil Val de Marne University Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Paris Henri Mondor Hospital Creteil France

Department of Gastroenterology University of Saint Etienne Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Hopital Nord Saint Etienne France

Department of Public Health Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam The Netherlands

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department of Internal Medicine Mackay Memorial Hospital Taipei Taiwan

Division of Gastroenterology Calgary Alberta Canada

Division of Gastroenterology Zeidler Ledcor Center University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada

Exeter Inflammatory Bowel Disease Research Group University of Exeter Exeter United Kingdom

Inflammatory Bowel Disease Clinical and Research Centre Iscare a s Prague Czech Republic

Institute of Medical Biochemistry and Laboratory Diagnostics 1st Medical Faculty General Teaching Hospital Prague Czech Republic

Citace poskytuje Crossref.org

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$a BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tools for stratification of relapse risk of Crohn's disease (CD) after anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy cessation are needed. We aimed to validate a previously developed prediction model from the diSconTinuation in CrOhn's disease patients in stable Remission on combined therapy with Immunosuppressants (STORI) trial, and to develop an updated model. METHODS: Cohort studies were selected that reported on anti-TNF cessation in 30 or more CD patients in remission. Individual participant data were requested for luminal CD patients and anti-TNF treatment duration of 6 months or longer. The discriminative ability (concordance-statistic [C-statistic]) and calibration (agreement between observed and predicted risks) were explored for the STORI model. Next, an updated prognostic model was constructed, with performance assessment by cross-validation. RESULTS: This individual participant data meta-analysis included 1317 patients from 14 studies in 11 countries. Relapses after anti-TNF cessation occurred in 632 of 1317 patients after a median of 13 months. The pooled 1-year relapse rate was 38%. The STORI prediction model showed poor discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.51). The updated model reached a moderate discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.59), and included clinical symptoms at cessation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4), younger age at diagnosis (HR, 1.5 for A1 (age at diagnosis ≤16 years) vs A2 (age at diagnosis 17 - 40 years); 95% CI, 1.11-1.89), no concomitant immunosuppressants (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.18-172), smoking (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.15-1.67), second line anti-TNF (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69), upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (HR, 1.3 for L4 vs non-L4; 95% CI, 0.96-1.79), adalimumab (HR, 1.22 vs infliximab; 95% CI, 0.99-1.50), age at cessation (HR, 1.2 per 10 years younger; 95% CI, 1-1.33), C-reactive protein (HR, 1.04 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08), and longer disease duration (HR, 1.07 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17). In subanalysis, the discriminative ability of the model improved by adding fecal calprotectin (C-statistic, 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: This updated prediction model showed a reasonable discriminative ability, exceeding the performance of a previously published model. It might be useful to guide clinical decisions on anti-TNF therapy cessation in CD patients after further validation.
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