Few studies assessing the effects of COVID-19 on mental health include prospective markers of risk and resilience necessary to understand and mitigate the combined impacts of the pandemic, lockdowns, and other societal responses. This population-based study of young adults includes individuals from the Neuroscience in Psychiatry Network (n = 2403) recruited from English primary care services and schools in 2012-2013 when aged 14-24. Participants were followed up three times thereafter, most recently during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 outbreak when they were aged between 19 and 34. Repeated measures of psychological distress (K6) and mental wellbeing (SWEMWBS) were supplemented at the latest assessment by clinical measures of depression (PHQ-9) and anxiety (GAD-7). A total of 1000 participants, 42% of the original cohort, returned to take part in the COVID-19 follow-up; 737 completed all four assessments [mean age (SD), 25.6 (3.2) years; 65.4% female; 79.1% White]. Our findings show that the pandemic led to pronounced deviations from existing mental health-related trajectories compared to expected levels over approximately seven years. About three-in-ten young adults reported clinically significant depression (28.8%) or anxiety (27.6%) under current NHS guidelines; two-in-ten met clinical cut-offs for both. About 9% reported levels of psychological distress likely to be associated with serious functional impairments that substantially interfere with major life activities; an increase by 3% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Deviations from personal trajectories were not necessarily restricted to conventional risk factors; however, individuals with pre-existing health conditions suffered disproportionately during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Resilience factors known to support mental health, particularly in response to adverse events, were at best mildly protective of individual psychological responses to the pandemic. Our findings underline the importance of monitoring the long-term effects of the ongoing pandemic on young adults' mental health, an age group at particular risk for the emergence of psychopathologies. Our findings further suggest that maintaining access to mental health care services during future waves, or potential new pandemics, is particularly crucial for those with pre-existing health conditions. Even though resilience factors known to support mental health were only mildly protective during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains to be seen whether these factors facilitate mental health in the long term.

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust Cambridge UK

Department of Clinical Psychology Philipps University of Marburg Marburg Germany

Department of Kinanthropology and Humanities Charles University Prague Czechia

Department of Medicine Institute of Biomedical Research University of Salamanca Salamanca Spain

Department of Psychiatry Faculty of Medicine University of Southampton Southampton UK

Department of Psychiatry University of Cambridge Douglas House 18B Trumpington Road Cambridge CB2 8AH UK

Max Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research London UK

National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration East of England Cambridge UK

Norwich Medical School University of East Anglia Norwich UK

Research Department of Clinical Educational and Health Psychology University College London London UK

Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust Southampton UK

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