The long-term atmospheric cycling and fate of persistent organic pollutants under the influence of a changing climate is a concern. A GCM's realization of present-day (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate, the latter under a medium scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, is used to study meridional transports and their correlations with the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO and NAO). Regions of import and export maxima into the Arctic are identified along the Arctic Circle. It is found that, under future climate conditions, the net export of PCB153 out of the Arctic will increase. The meridional net flux pattern of this substance is expected to become independent of AO and NAO. For DDT, a trend of decreasing net Arctic import will reverse to an increasing trend 100 years after peak emission, which is partly due to more frequent AO and NAO positive phases. It is concluded that the long-term accumulation trends in the Arctic of other persistent pollutants, including so-called emerging pollutants, are subject to the substances' specific behavior and fate in the environment and need to be studied specifically.

§Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg 20146 Germany

†Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Mainz 55128 Germany

‡University of Hamburg CEN Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science Hamburg 22767 Germany

∥Masaryk University Research Centre for Toxic Compounds in the Environment Brno 62500 Czech Republic

⊥University of Cambridge Centre for Atmospheric Sciences Cambridge CB2 1TN United Kingdom

References provided by Crossref.org

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as sentinels for the elucidation of Arctic environmental change processes: a comprehensive review combined with ArcRisk project results

Temperature effect on phase state and reactivity controls atmospheric multiphase chemistry and transport of PAHs

Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls along an east-to-west gradient in subtropical North Atlantic surface water