OBJECTIVE: To create a tool to predict probability of remission and low disease activity (LDA) in patients with RA being considered for anti-TNF treatment in clinical practice. METHODS: We analysed data from GO-MORE, an open-label, multinational, prospective study in biologic-naïve patients with active RA (DAS28-ESR ⩾3.2) despite DMARD therapy. Patients received 50 mg s.c. golimumab (GLM) once monthly for 6 months. In secondary analyses, regression models were used to determine the best set of baseline factors to predict remission (DAS28-ESR <2.6) at month 6 and LDA (DAS28-ESR ⩽3.2) at month 1. RESULTS: In 3280 efficacy-evaluable patients, of 12 factors included in initial regression models predicting remission or LDA, six were retained in final multivariable models. Greater likelihood of LDA and remission was associated with being male; younger age; lower HAQ, ESR (or CRP) and tender joint count (or swollen joint count) scores; and absence of comorbidities. In models predicting 1-, 3- and 6-month LDA or remission, area under the receiver operating curve was 0.648-0.809 (R(2) = 0.0397-0.1078). The models also predicted 6-month HAQ and EuroQoL-5-dimension scores. A series of matrices were developed to easily show predicted rates of remission and LDA. CONCLUSION: A matrix tool was developed to show predicted GLM treatment outcomes in patients with RA, based on a combination of six baseline characteristics. The tool could help provide practical guidance in selection of candidates for anti-TNF therapy.

Centre de Rhumatologie St Louis Québec Canada

Clinical Development Merck and Co Inc Kenilworth NJ USA

Departement de Rhumatologie Hôpital Lapeyronie Montpellier University Hospital Montpellier France

Department of Biostatistics

Department of Immunology MSD Italy Global Medical Affairs Rome Italy

Department of Internal Medicine B and Research Center for Autoimmune Diseases Sheba Medical Center Tel Hashomer Israel

Department of Medical Affairs MSD Danmark ApS Ballerup Denmark

Department of Rheumatology AGAR Francisco Marroquin University Guatemala City Guatemala

Department of Rheumatology Centro Paulista de Investigação Clinica São Paulo Brazil

Department of Rheumatology Clinical Sciences Centre University Hospital Aintree Liverpool UK

Department of Rheumatology Klinik für Rheumatologie Schön Klinik Hamburg Eilbek Hamburg Germany

Department of Rheumatology Southend University Hospital Westcliff on Sea Essex UK

Department of Rheumatology Université Catholique de Louvain Brussels Belgium

Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology Department of Medicine 4 University of Munich Munich Germany

Institute of Rheumatology and Clinic of Rheumatology Charles University Prague Czech Republic

Instituto de Asistencia Reumatologica Integral Buenos Aires Argentina

Panorama Medical Centre Cape Town South Africa

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