Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.

Aquatic Systems Biology Unit Technical University of Munich Freising Germany

Berlin Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research Berlin Germany

Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Millbrook NY USA

Centre for Invasion Biology Department of Botany and Zoology Stellenbosch University Matieland 7602 South Africa

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Land and Water Black Mountain Canberra Australia

Department of Biology Duke University Durham NC USA

Department of Biosciences Swansea University Singleton Park UK

Department of Ecology Evolution and Marine Biology University of California Santa Barbara Santa Barbara CA USA

Department of Ecology Faculty of Science Charles University Viničná 7 Prague 2 Czech Republic

Department of Invasion Ecology Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Průhonice Czech Republic

Department of Natural Resource Sciences McGill University MacDonald Campus Saint Anne de Bellevue Canada

Division of Conservation Vegetation and Landscape Ecology University of Vienna Vienna Austria

Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Iceland Reykjavík Iceland

Freie Universität Berlin Berlin Germany

Institute for Multidisciplinary Research University of Belgrade Belgrade Serbia

Institute of Botany Department of Invasion Ecology The Czech Academy of Sciences Průhonice Czech Republic

Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries Berlin Germany

School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK

School of Biology Newcastle University Newcastle UK

West Iceland Nature Research Centre Stykkishólmur Iceland

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