The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Associate Laboratory TERRA Lisbon Portugal

Centre of Geographical Studies Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning University of Lisbon Lisboa Portugal

Department of Biology Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere Aarhus University Aarhus Denmark

Department of Botany and Zoology Centre for Invasion Biology Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch South Africa

Department of Environmental Sciences University of Basel Basel Switzerland

Department of Invasion Ecology Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Botany Průhonice Czech Republic

Division of Biodiversity Dynamics and Conservation Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Vienna Austria

Division of BioInvasions Global Change and Macroecology Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Vienna Austria

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig Leipzig Germany

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Halle Germany

Institute for Biochemistry and Biology University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany

Institute of Integrative Biology ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland

Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg Halle Germany

UMR CNRS 7058 Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés Université de Picardie Jules Verne Amiens France

Univ Grenoble Alpes Univ Savoie Mont Blanc CNRS LECA Grenoble F 38000 France

University of Lausanne Lausanne Switzerland

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