Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Catalan Institute for Water Research 17003 Girona Spain

Cavanilles Institute of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology University of Valencia 46980 Paterna Valencia Spain

Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies Dundalk Institute of Technology A91 K584 Dundalk Ireland

Centro de Investigação da Montanha Instituto Politécnico de Bragança Campus de Santa Apolónia 5300 253 Bragança Portugal;

Centro de Investigacións Cientificas Avanzadas Facultade de Ciencias Universidade da Coruña 15071 A Coruña Spain

Departamento de Sistemática e Ecologia Universidade Federal da Paraíba 58059 970 Paraíba Brasil

Department F A Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences University of Geneva 1205 Geneva Switzerland

Department for Ecotoxicology Teaching Institute of Public Health of Primorje Gorski Kotar County 51000 Rijeka Croatia

Department of Animal Biology Plant Biology and Ecology University of Jaen 23701 Jaen Spain

Department of Aquatic Ecology Netherlands Institute of Ecology 6700 Wageningen The Netherlands

Department of Basic Science Ataturk University 25240 Erzurum Turkey

Department of Bioengineering Bursa Technical University 16310 Bursa Turkey

Department of Biological and Environmental Science University of Jyväskylä 40014 Jyväskylä Finland

Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Stirling Stirling FK9 4LA UK

Department of Biological Sciences Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA 24061 USA

Department of Biology Balikesir University 10145 Balikesir Turkey

Department of Biology Faculty of Science University of Zagreb 10000 Zagreb Croatia

Department of Biology Giresun University 28100 Giresun Turkey

Department of Biology Hitit University 19040 Corum Turkey

Department of Biology Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek 31000 Osijek Croatia

Department of Biology Limnological Institute University of Konstanz 78464 Konstanz Germany

Department of Biology Lund University 22362 Lund Sweden

Department of biology Middle East Technical University 6800 Ankara Turkey

Department of Biology Sakarya University 54187 Sakarya Turkey

Department of Biology University of Cádiz 11510 Puerto Real Cádiz Spain

Department of Botany Aristotle University of Thessaloniki 54124 Thessaloniki Greece

Department of Civil Engineering University of A Coruña 15192 A Coruña Spain

Department of Ecology and Genetics Erken Laboratory Uppsala University 76173 Norrtalje Sweden

Department of Ecology and Genetics Limnology Uppsala University 75236 Uppsala Sweden

Department of Ecology University of Granada 18071 Granada Spain

Department of Ecology University of Malaga 29071 Malaga Spain

Department of Environment and Resource Management Mediterranean Fisheries Research Production and Training Institute 7090 Antalya Turkey

Department of Environmental Engineering Abant Izzet Baysal University 14280 Bolu Turkey

Department of Environmental Improvement Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering Warsaw University of Life Sciences—SGGW 02 787Warsaw Poland

Department of Environmental Science and Technology Cyprus University of Technology 3036 Lemesos Cyprus

Department of Environmental Sciences Wageningen University and Research 6700 Wageningen The Netherlands

Department of Evolutionary Biology Ecology and Environmental Sciences University of Barcelona 08028 Barcelona Spain

Department of Experimental Limnology Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries 16775 Stechlin Germany

Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture Ankara University 6100 Ankara Turkey

Department of Forest Engineering University of Cankiri Karatekin 18200 Cankiri Turkey

Department of Freshwater and Marine Ecology University of Amsterdam 1090 GE Amsterdam The Netherlands

Department of Freshwater Ecology Norwegian Institute for Water Research 0349 Oslo Norway

Department of Freshwater Protection Institute of Environmental Protection National Research Institute 01 692 Warsaw Poland

Department of Freshwater Resource and Management Faculty of Aquatic Sciences Istanbul University 34134 Istanbul Turkey

Department of Genetic Toxicology and Cancer Biology National Institute of Biology 1000 Ljubljana Slovenia

Department of Hydraulic Engineering Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering Warsaw University of Life Sciences—SGGW 02 787Warsaw Poland

Department of Hydrobiology Adam Mickiewicz University 61614 Poznan Poland

Department of Hydrobiology and Protection of Ecosystems University of Life Sciences in Lublin 20262 Lublin Poland

Department of Hydrobiology Morava Board Authority 60200 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Hydrobiology University of Bialystok 15245 Bialystok Poland

Department of Icthyology Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecology Inland Fisheries Institute 10719 Olsztyn Poland

Department of Limnology and Water Quality AECOM U R S 08036 Barcelona Spain

Department of Marine Biotechnology University of Gdansk 81378 Gdynia Poland

Department of Microbiology and Ecology University of Valencia 46100 Burjassot Spain

Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics Gaziosmanpasa University 60250 Merkez Turkey

Department of Plant Ecology and Environmental Conservation Faculty of Biology University ofWarsaw 02 089 Warsaw Poland

Department of Science and Engineering Åbo Akademi University 20520 Åbo Finland

Department of Sustainable Ecosystems and Bioresources Fondazione Edmund Mach 38010 San Michele all’Adige Italy

Department of Tourism Recreation and Ecology University of Warmia and Mazury 10 720 Olsztyn Poland

Department ofWater Protection Adam Mickiewicz University 61614 Poznan Poland

Department ofWater Protection Engineering University ofWarmia and Mazury 10 720 Olsztyn Poland

Department ofWater Quality Slovenian Environmental Agency 1000 Ljubljana Slovenia

European Regional Centre for Ecohydrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences 90364 Lodz Poland

Faculty of Aquaculture Mersin University 33160 Mersin Turkey

Faculty of Biology University ofWarsaw 02 096Warsaw Poland

Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics SS Cyril and Methodius University 1000 Skopje Macedonia

Freshwater Biological Laboratory Department of Biology University of Copenhagen 2100 Copenhagen Denmark

German Environment Agency Unit Drinking Water Resources and Water Treatment Corrensplatz 1 14195 Berlin Germany

Institute for Water and Wetland Research Department of Aquatic Ecology and Environmental Biology Radboud University Nijmegen 6525 AJ Nijmegen The Netherlands

Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Estonian University of Life Sciences 51014 Tartu Estonia

Institute of Biochemistry and Biology Potsdam University 14469 Potsdam Germany

Institute of Botany Nature Research Centre Vilnius 08412 Lithuania

Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera ICTJA CSIC 08028 Barcelona Spain

Institute of Environmental Engineering Poznan University of Technology 60965 Poznan Poland

Institute of Environmental Protection and Engineering University of Bielsko Biala 43309 Bielsko Biala Poland

Institute of Marine Sciences Department of Oceanography Middle East Technical University 06800 Ankara Turkey

Institute of Marine Sciences Marine Biology and Fisheries Middle East Technical University 06800 Ankara Turkey

Institute of Marine Sciences University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill NC 28557 USA

Institute of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology National Center for Scientific Research «DEMOKRITOS» 15341 Attiki Greece

Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences 31 120 Krakow Poland

Institute of Technology The State University of Applied Sciences 82300 Elblag Poland

Instituto Dom Luiz University of Lisbon 1749016 Lisbon Portugal

Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research and University of Porto 4450 208 Matosinhos Portugal

Laboratory of Paleoecology Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences 60200 Brno Czech Republic

Lammi Biological Station University of Helsinki 16900 Lammi Finland

National Reference Center for Hydrobiology Public Health Authority of the Slovak Republic 82645 Bratislava Slovakia

R and D Department Environmental Engineering 3edata 27004 Lugo Spain

RECETOX Faculty of Science Masaryk University 62500 Brno Czech Republic

Republic of Turkey Ministry of Food Agriculture Fisheries Research Institute 32500 Eğirdir Isparta Turkey

Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources InBIO Associated Laboratory Faculty of Sciences and Technology University of the Azores 9501 801 Ponta Delgada Portugal

School of Pharmacy and Life Sciences Robert Gordon University Aberdeen AB10 7GJ UK

Society for the Protection of Prespa 53077 Agios Germanos Greece

Tartu Observatory Faculty of Science and Technology University of Tartu 61602 Tartu Estonia

Water Quality Department Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company 11146 Athens Greece

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