Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

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Behavioural Ecology and Ecophysiology Group University of Antwerp Universiteitsplein 1 2610 Wilrijk Belgium

Behavioural Ecology Department of Biology Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich Großhaderner Str 2 Planegg Martinsried 82152 Germany

Biodiversity research Systematic Botany University of Potsdam Maulbeerallee 1 Berlin 14469 Germany

CEFE UMR 5175 CNRS Université de Montpellier Université Paul Valéry Montpellier EPHE 1919 route de Mende 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5 France

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Bush Estate Penicuik EH26 0QB UK

CREAF 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès Spain

CSIC Global Ecology Unit CREAF CSIC UAB Bellaterra 08193 Spain

Departamento de Zoologia Facultad de Ciencias Universidad de Granada 18071 Granada Spain

Department of Anatomy Cellular Biology and Zoology University of Extremadura 06006 Badajoz Spain

Department of Animal Ecology Netherlands Institute of Ecology P O Box 50 6700 AB Wageningen The Netherlands

Department of Biological Sciences Auburn University Auburn AL 36849 USA

Department of Biological Sciences Tokyo Metropolitan University 1 1 Minami Osawa Hachioji shi Tokyo 192 0397 Japan

Department of Biological Sciences University of Texas Rio Grande Valley Brownsville 78520 TX USA

Department of Biology Lund University 22362 Lund Sweden

Department of Biology Norwegian University of Science and Technology Høgskoleringen 5 7491 Trondheim Norway

Department of Biology University of Ottawa Ontario K1N 6N5 Canada

Department of Biology University of Turku Turku FI 20014 Finland

Department of Ecology Evolution and Organismal Biology Iowa State University Ames IA 50011 USA

Department of Ecology Technische Universität Berlin 12165 Berlin Germany

Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management and Museum of Vertebrate Zoology University of California Berkeley 94720 CA USA

Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich 8057 Switzerland

Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences 2424 Main Mall Vancouver V6T 1Z4 BC Canada

Department of Functional and Evolutionary Ecology Experimental Station of Arid Zones Ctra de Sacramento s n 04120 Almería Spain

Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming 1000 E University Avenue Laramie WY 82071 USA

Department of Zoology Faculty of Biology University of Seville Avenue Reina Mercedes 41012 Seville Spain

Department of Zoology Palacký University tř 17 listopadu 50 771 46 Olomouc Czech Republic

Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Downing Street Cambridge CB2 3EJ UK

Ecologie Systématique Evolution Université Paris Sud CNRS AgroParisTech Université Paris Saclay 91405 Orsay Cedex France

Edward Grey Institute Department of Zoology University of Oxford Oxford OX1 3PS UK

Estonian University of Life Sciences Kreutzwaldi 5 51014 Tartu Estonia

Evolutionary Ecology Group University of Antwerp Universiteitsplein 1 2610 Wilrijk Belgium

Graduate School of Simulation Studies University of Hyogo 7 1 28 Minatojima minamimachi Kobe 650 0047 Japan

Imperial College London Silwood Park Campus Buckurst Road Ascot SL5 7PY UK

Institute for Biochemistry and Biology Potsdam University Karl Liebknecht Strasse 24 25 14476 Potsdam Germany

Institute for Landscape and Open Space HSR Hochschule für Technik Oberseestrasse 10 Rapperswil 8640 Switzerland

Institute of Zoology Poznan University of Life Sciences Wojska Polskiego 71C 60 625 Poznań Poland

ISEM Université de Montpellier CNRS IRD EPHE Montpellier 34095 France

Lab of Ornithology Cornell University Ithaca NY 14850 USA

Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science Museum für Naturkunde Invalidenstrasse 43 10115 Berlin Germany

Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research Alfred Kowalke Straße 17 10315 Berlin Germany

LPO Mission Rapaces 26 avenue Alain Guigue 13104 Mas Thibert France

Miromiro Drive Kaikoura 7300 New Zealand

Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona P° Picasso s n Parc Ciutadella 08003 Barcelona Spain

Natural History Museum of Granollers Francesc Macià 52 08401 Granollers Spain

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research P O Box 5685 Torgarden 7485 Trondheim Norway

Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme Ecological Genetics Research Unit Faculty Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Helsinki 00014 Helsinki Finland

Research Domain 1 'Earth System Analysis' Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research P O Box 60 12 03 Telegrafenberg A31 Potsdam D 14412 Germany

Savannah River Ecology Laboratory University of Georgia Aiken SC 29802 USA

School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences University College Cork Cork T23 N73K Ireland

School of Biology Faculty of Biological Sciences University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT UK

School of Natural and Social Sciences University of Gloucestershire Swindon Road Cheltenham GL50 4AZ UK

Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center Senckenberganlage 25 60325 Frankfurt Main Germany

Sorbonne Université Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle CNRS CESCO UMR 7204 61 rue Buffon 75005 Paris France

Station of Experimental and Theoretical Ecology UMR 5321 CNRS and University Paul Sabatier 2 route du CNRS 09200 Moulis France

Swedish Museum of Natural History P O Box 50007 10405 Stockholm Sweden

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