Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.

Centre for Rural Economy School of Natural and Environmental Sciences Newcastle University Agriculture Building King's Road Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU United Kingdom

Department of Plant Sciences Rothamsted Research West Common Harpenden Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ United Kingdom

Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Bělidla 986 4 603 00 Brno Czech Republic

Mendel University in Brno Zemědělská 1 Brno 613 00 Czech Republic

School of Agriculture Policy and Development University of Reading Earley Gate Reading RG6 6AH United Kingdom

Sustainable Agricultural Sciences Rothamsted Research West Common Harpenden Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ United Kingdom

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