Rising temperatures may endanger fragile ecosystems because their character and key species show different habitat affinities under different climates. This assumption has only been tested in limited geographical scales. In fens, one of the most endangered ecosystems in Europe, broader pH niches have been reported from cold areas and are expected for colder past periods. We used the largest European-scale vegetation database from fens to test the hypothesis that pH interacts with macroclimate temperature in forming realized niches of fen moss and vascular plant species. We calibrated the data set (29,885 plots after heterogeneity-constrained resampling) with temperature, using two macroclimate variables, and with the adjusted pH, a variable combining pH and calcium richness. We modelled temperature, pH and water level niches for one hundred species best characterizing European fens using generalized additive models and tested the interaction between pH and temperature. Fifty-five fen species showed a statistically significant interaction between pH and temperature (adj p ˂ .01). Forty-six of them (84%) showed a positive interaction manifested by a shift or restriction of their niche to higher pH in warmer locations. Nine vascular plants and no moss showed the opposite interaction. Mosses showed significantly greater interaction. We conclude that climate significantly modulates edaphic niches of fen plants, especially bryophytes. This result explains previously reported regional changes in realized pH niches, a current habitat-dependent decline of endangered taxa, and distribution changes in the past. A warmer climate makes growing seasons longer and warmer, increases productivity, and may lower the water level. These effects prolong the duration and intensity of interspecific competition, support highly competitive Sphagnum mosses, and, as such, force niches of specialized fen species towards narrower high-pH ranges. Recent anthropogenic landscape changes pose a severe threat to many fen species and call for mitigation measures to lower competition pressure in their refugia.

Climpact Data Science Nova Sophia Regus Nova Sophia Antipolis Cedex France

Department of Biosciences Faculty of Science and Technology University of Vic Central University of Catalonia Barcelona Spain

Department of Botany and Zoology Faculty of Science Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

Department of Chemistry Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability University of Parma Parma Italy

Department of Ecology and Environmental Conservation Institute of Environmental Biology University of Warsaw Warsaw Poland

Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences University of Eastern Finland Joensuu Finland

Department of Evolutionary Biology Ecology and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Biology Biodiversity Research Institute University of Barcelona Barcelona Spain

Department of Paleoecology Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Rostock University Rostock Germany

Geobotany and Botanical Garden Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg Halle Germany

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig Leipzig Germany

Laboratory of General Geobotany Komarov Botanical Institute R A S St Petersburg Russia

Laboratory of Geobotany Institute of Biology of the University of Latvia Rīga Latvia

Plant Science and Biodiversity Center Slovak Academy of Sciences Bratislava Slovakia

Research Unit of Biodiversity University of Oviedo Mieres Spain

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