In forest tree breeding, assisted migration has been proposed to accelerate the adaptive response to climate change. Response functions are currently fitted across multiple populations and environments, enabling selections of the most appropriate seed sources for a specific reforestation site. So far, the approach has been limited to capturing adaptive variation among populations, neglecting tree-to-tree variation residing within a population. Here, we combined the response function methodology with the in-situ breeding approach, utilizing progeny trials of European larch (Larix decidua) across 21 test sites in Austria ranging from Alpine to lowland regions. We quantified intra-population genetic variance and predicted individual genetic performance along a climatic gradient. This approach can be adopted in most breeding and conservation programs, boosting the speed of adaptation under climate change.

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czechia

Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests Natural Hazards and Landscape Department of Forest Biodiversity and Nature Conservation Vienna Austria

Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests Natural Hazards and Landscape Department of Forest Growth Silviculture and Genetics Vienna Austria

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