Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

Department of Agri Environmental and Territorial Sciences University of Bari Aldo Moro via Amendola 165 A 70126 Bari Italy

Department of Forest Ecology Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Kamýcká 129 CZ 165 21 Praha 6 Suchdol Czech Republic

Department of Forest Management and Geodesy Technical University in Zvolen T G Masaryka 24 Zvolen 96053 Slovakia

Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources Biotechnical Faculty University of Ljubljana Večna pot 83 Ljubljana 1000 Slovenia

Dipartimento di Agraria University of Naples Federico 2 via Università 100 80055 Portici Napoli Italy

DISAFA University of Torino Largo Braccini 2 10095 Grugliasco Italy

Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Kamýcká 129 CZ 165 21 Praha 6 Suchdol Czech Republic

Forest Ecology Department of Environmental Sciences Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH Zurich Universitätstrasse 16 CH 8092 Zürich Switzerland

Forest Research Forestry Commission Northern Research Station Roslin EH25 9SY UK

INIA CIFOR Ctra La Coruña km 7 5 28040 Madrid Spain

Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Zámek 1 CZ 252 43 Průhonice Czech Republic

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Environmental Research Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19 82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen Germany

Institute of Silviculture Department of Forest and Soil Sciences University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna Peter Jordan Straße 82 1190 Wien Austria

Natural Resources Institute Finland Management and Production of Renewable Resources Latokartanonkaari 9 00790 Helsinki Finland

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PO Box 60 12 03 D 14412 Potsdam Germany

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