Understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines has become an important goal in ecology, particularly in the tropics, where most terrestrial diversity exists. Over the past 12 years, the ForestGEO Arthropod Initiative has systematically monitored multiple insect groups on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, providing baseline data for assessing long-term population trends. Here, we estimate the rates of change in abundance among 96 tiger moth species on BCI. Population trends of most species were stable (n = 20) or increasing (n = 62), with few (n = 14) declining species. Our analysis of morphological and climatic sensitivity traits associated with population trends shows that species-specific responses to climate were most strongly linked with trends. Specifically, tiger moth species that are more abundant in warmer and wetter years are more likely to show population increases. Our study contrasts with recent findings indicating insect decline in tropical and temperate regions. These results highlight the significant role of biotic responses to climate in determining long-term population trends and suggest that future climate changes are likely to impact tropical insect communities.

Agriculture and Environment Department Harper Adams University Newport Shropshire TF10 8NB UK

Department of Ecology Institute of Entomology Biology Centre Czech Academy of Sciences Ceske Budejovice 37005 Czech Republic

Department of Geography University College London Gower Street London WC1E 6BT UK

Department of Life and Earth Sciences Perimeter College Georgia State University Atlanta USA

Faculty of Sciences University of South Bohemia Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic

ForestGEO Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Apartado 0843 03092 Balboa Ancon Panamá City Republic of Panamá

Maestria de Entomologia Universidad de Panamá Apartado 3366 Panamá 4 Panamá

Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle Département Systématique et Évolution Entomologie 57 rue Cuvier Paris France

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Climate drives the long-term ant male production in a tropical community

Population trends of insect pollinators in a species-rich tropical rainforest: stable trends but contrasting patterns across taxa

More winners than losers over 12 years of monitoring tiger moths (Erebidae: Arctiinae) on Barro Colorado Island, Panama

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figshare
10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5896928