The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost-climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post-thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw-mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well-suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high-disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post-thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower-intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post-thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

Agriculture and Agri Food Canada Quebec Research and Development Centre Quebec Quebec Canada

Austrian Polar Research Institute Vienna Austria

BfR Federal Institute for Risk Assessment Berlin Germany

Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center Ohio State University Colombus Ohio USA

California State University Northridge Northridge California USA

Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability Universität Hamburg Hamburg Germany

Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA

Center of Microbiome Science Ohio State University Colombus Ohio USA

Centre for Microbiology and Environmental Systems Science University of Vienna Vienna Austria

Centre for Polar Ecology University of South Bohemia Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic

Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences University of Eastern Finland Kuopio Finland

Department of Environmental Studies Amherst College Amherst Massachusetts USA

Department of Geosciences Princeton University Princeton New Jersey USA

Department of Plant and Wildlife Sciences Brigham Young University Provo Utah USA

EMergent Ecosystem Response to ChanGE Biology Integration Institute

GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Interface Geochemistry Potsdam Germany

GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Section Geomicrobiology Potsdam Germany

Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks Alaska USA

Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems of Soil Science Pushchino Russia

Institute of Soil Science Universität Hamburg Hamburg Germany

Laboratory of Extraterrestrial Ocean Systems Institute of Deep sea Science and Engineering Chinese Academy of Sciences Sanya China

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley California USA

Microbiology Department Ohio State University Columbus Ohio USA

Molecular Cellular and Biomedical Sciences University of New Hampshire Durham New Hampshire USA

Natural Resources and the Environment University of New Hampshire Durham New Hampshire USA

Natural Resources Institute Finland Helsinki Finland

U S Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Hanover New Hampshire USA

U S Geological Survey Geology Minerals Energy and Geophysics Science Center Menlo Park California USA

University of Alaska Fairbanks Alaska USA

University of Tennessee Knoxville Tennessee USA

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