STUDY REGION: The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe. STUDY FOCUS: Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and society, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. However, understanding changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes is associated with great uncertainty due to the limited number of gauge observations. Here, we compile a tree-ring network to reconstruct the July-September baseflow variability of the Morava River from 1745 to 2018 CE. An ensemble of reconstructions was produced to assess the impact of calibration period length and trend on the long-term mean of reconstruction estimates. The final estimates represent the first baseflow reconstruction based on tree rings from the European continent. Simulated flows and historical documentation provide quantitative and qualitative validation of estimates prior to the 20th century. NEW HYDROLOGICAL INSIGHTS FOR THE REGION: The reconstructions indicate an increased variability of warm-season flow during the past 100 years, with the most extreme high and low flows occurring after the start of instrumental observations. When analyzing the entire reconstruction, the negative trend in baseflow displayed by gauges across the basin after 1960 is not unprecedented. We conjecture that even lower flows could likely occur in the future considering that pre-instrumental trends were not primarily driven by rising temperature (and the evaporative demand) in contrast to the recent trends.

Department of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Department of Civil Environmental and Geodetic Engineering Ohio State University United States

Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz Germany

Department of Geography Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

Department of Geography University of Cambridge Cambridge UK

Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology Charles University Prague Czech Republic

Department of Water Resources and Environmental Modeling Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Department of Wood Science and Wood Technology Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research Birmensdorf Switzerland

T G Masaryk Water Research Institute Prague Czech Republic

UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig Germany

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