Widening global variability in grassland biomass since the 1980s
Language English Country Great Britain, England Media print-electronic
Document type Journal Article
PubMed
39103674
DOI
10.1038/s41559-024-02500-x
PII: 10.1038/s41559-024-02500-x
Knihovny.cz E-resources
- MeSH
- Biodiversity MeSH
- Biomass * MeSH
- Climate Change MeSH
- Grassland * MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
Global change is associated with variable shifts in the annual production of aboveground plant biomass, suggesting localized sensitivities with unclear causal origins. Combining remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index data since the 1980s with contemporary field data from 84 grasslands on 6 continents, we show a widening divergence in site-level biomass ranging from +51% to -34% globally. Biomass generally increased in warmer, wetter and species-rich sites with longer growing seasons and declined in species-poor arid areas. Phenological changes were widespread, revealing substantive transitions in grassland seasonal cycling. Grazing, nitrogen deposition and plant invasion were prevalent in some regions but did not predict overall trends. Grasslands are undergoing sizable changes in production, with implications for food security, biodiversity and carbon storage especially in arid regions where declines are accelerating.
Archbold Biological Station Venus FL USA
Baruch Institute of Coastal Ecology and Forest Science Clemson University Clemson SC USA
Centre for Applied Ecology School of Agriculture University of Lisbon Lisbon Portugal
Centre for Ecological Sciences Indian Institute of Science Bangalore India
Chair of Biodiversity and Nature Tourism Estonian University of Life Sciences Tartu Estonia
College of Ecology Lanzhou University Lanzhou China
College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology Lanzhou University Lanzhou China
CSIRO Environment Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
Department of Biological Sciences Michigan Technological University Houghton MI USA
Department of Biological Sciences Texas Tech University Lubbock TX USA
Department of Biological Sciences University of Toronto Scarborough Toronto Ontario Canada
Department of Biology and Animal Sciences Sao Paulo State University UNESP Ilha Solteira Brazil
Department of Biology Boston University Boston MA USA
Department of Biology National University of Mongolia Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
Department of Biology Texas State University San Marcos TX USA
Department of Biology University of New Mexico Albuquerque NM USA
Department of Biology Wake Forest University Winston Salem NC USA
Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Umeå University Umeå Sweden
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder CO USA
Department of Ecology and Genetics University of Oulu Oulu Finland
Department of Ecology Evolution and Behavior University of Minnesota Saint Paul MN USA
Department of Ecology Evolution and Organismal Biology Iowa State University Ames IA USA
Department of Entomology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
Department of Environment and Genetics La Trobe University Bundoora Victoria Australia
Department of Environmental Science and Policy Marist College Poughkeepsie NY USA
Department of Geography King's College London London UK
Department of Health and Environmental Sciences Jiatong Liverpool University Suzhou China
Department of Integrative Biology University of Guelph Guelph Ontario Canada
Department of Integrative Biology University of Texas at Austin Austin TX USA
Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences Montana State University Bozeman MT USA
Department of Life Sciences Imperial College London Ascot UK
Department of Natural Sciences Northeastern State University Tahlequah OK USA
Department of Plant Agriculture University of Guelph Guelph Ontario Canada
Department of Plant and Soil Sciences University of Kentucky Lexington KY USA
Department of Terrestrial Ecology Netherlands Institute of Ecology Wageningen The Netherlands
Department of Zoology and Entomology University of Pretoria Pretoria South Africa
Department of Zoology School of Natural Sciences Trinity College Dublin Dublin Ireland
Division of Biological Sciences University of California San Diego San Diego CA USA
Ecology and Biodiversity Group Department of Biology Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
Faculty of Environmental and Forest Sciences Agricultural University of Iceland Reykjavik Iceland
Forest Research Centre School of Agriculture University of Lisbon Lisbon Portugal
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig Leipzig Germany
Gulbali Institute Charles Sturt University Albury New South Wales Australia
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment Western Sydney University Penrith New South Wales Australia
IFEVA Facultad de Agronomía Universidad de Buenos Aires CONICET Buenos Aires Argentina
Institute of Biology Leipzig University Leipzig Germany
Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Institute of Ecology College of Urban and Environmental Science Peking University Beijing China
Institute of Ecology Leuphana University of Lüneburg Lüneburg Germany
Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras FCEyN UNMdP CONICET Mar del Plata Argentina
INTA UNPA CONICET Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Rìo Gallegos Argentina
Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University Lancaster UK
Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg Halle Germany
Murdoch University Perth Western Australia Australia
School of Biological Sciences Monash University Clayton Victoria Australia
School of Earth and Sustainability Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ USA
School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA
School of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Sydney Camperdown New South Wales Australia
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
University of Northern Iowa Cedar Falls IA USA
USDA ARS Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory Temple TX USA
See more in PubMed
Nemani, R. R. et al. Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300, 1560–1563 (2003). PubMed DOI
Ciais, P. et al. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437, 529–533 (2005). PubMed DOI
Zhao, M. & Running, S. W. Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009. Science 329, 940–943 (2010). PubMed DOI
Zhu et al. Greening of the Earth and its drivers. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 791–795 (2016). DOI
Running, S. W. et al. A continuous satellite-derived measure of global terrestrial primary production. Bioscience 54, 547–560 (2004). DOI
Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W. & Costa-Roberts, J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333, 616–620 (2011). PubMed DOI
Tylianakis, J. M. et al. Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecol. Lett. 11, 1351–1363 (2008). PubMed DOI
Buitenwerf, R., Rose, L. & Higgins, S. I. Three decades of multi-dimensional change in global leaf phenology. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 364–368 (2015). DOI
Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 106–117 (2020). DOI
Berner, L. T. et al. Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome. Nat. Commun. 11, 4621 (2020). PubMed DOI PMC
Huang, J. et al. Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years. Clim. Dyn. 46, 1131–1150 (2016). DOI
Antar, M. et al. Biomass for a sustainable bioeconomy: an overview of world biomass production and utilization. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 139, 110691 (2021). DOI
Krausmann, F. et al. Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 10324–10329 (2013). PubMed DOI PMC
Gao, Q. et al. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands. Sci. Rep. 6, 26958 (2016). PubMed DOI PMC
Miles, V. V. & Esau, I. Spatial heterogeneity of greening and browning between and within bioclimatic zones in northern West Siberia. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 115002 (2016). DOI
Cavender-Bares, J. et al. Integrating remote sensing with ecology and evolution to advance biodiversity conservation. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 6, 506–519 (2022). PubMed DOI
Liao, C. et al. Altered ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycles by plant invasion: a meta‐analysis. New Phytol. 177, 706–714 (2008). PubMed DOI
Turbelin, A. J., Malamud, B. D. & Francis, R. A. Mapping the global state of invasive alien species: patterns of invasion and policy responses. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 26, 78–92 (2017). DOI
Borer, E. T. & Stevens, C. J. Nitrogen deposition and climate: an integrated synthesis. Trends Ecol. Evol. 6, 541–552 (2022). DOI
Knapp, A. K., Ciais, P. & Smith, M. D. Reconciling inconsistencies in precipitation–productivity relationships: implications for climate change. New Phytol. 214, 41–47 (2017). PubMed DOI
Teng, M. et al. The impacts of climate changes and human activities on net primary productivity vary across an ecotone zone in Northwest China. Sci. Total Environ. 714, 136691 (2020). PubMed DOI
Zani, D. et al. Increased growing-season productivity drives earlier autumn leaf senescence in temperate trees. Science 370, 1066–1071 (2020). PubMed DOI
Luo, Y. et al. Nutrients and water availability constrain the seasonality of vegetation activity in a Mediterranean ecosystem. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 4379–4400 (2020). DOI
Walker, M. D. et al. Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 1342–1346 (2006). PubMed DOI PMC
Parmesan, C. & Hanley, M. E. Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises. Ann. Bot. 106, 849–864 (2015). DOI
Olofsson, J. et al. Herbivores inhibit climate‐driven shrub expansion on the tundra. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 2681–2693 (2009). DOI
Maestre, F. T. et al. Grazing and ecosystem service delivery in global drylands. Science 378, 915–920 (2022). PubMed DOI
Yahdjian, L. et al. Why coordinated distributed experiments should go global. BioScience 71, 918–927 (2021). DOI
Borer, E. T. et al. Finding generality in ecology: a model for globally distributed experiments. Methods Ecol. Evol. 5, 65–73 (2014). DOI
White, R. P., Murray, S., Rohweder, M., Prince, S. D. & Thompson, K. M. Grassland Ecosystems (World Resources Institute, 2000).
Axelrod, D. I. Rise of the grassland biome, central North America. Bot. Rev. 51, 163–201 (1985). DOI
Sala, O. E. et al. Primary production of the central grassland region of the United States. Ecology 69, 40–45 (1988). DOI
Knapp, A. K. & Smith, M. D. Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production. Science 291, 481–484 (2001). PubMed DOI
Gilbert, B. et al. Climate and local environment structure asynchrony and the stability of primary production in grasslands. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 7, 1177–1188 (2020). DOI
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. & Lister, D. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Sci. Data 7, 109 (2020). PubMed DOI PMC
Ackerman, D., Millet, D. B. & Chen, X. Global estimates of inorganic nitrogen deposition across four decades. Global Biogeochem. Cy. 33, 100–107 (2019). DOI
van der Plas, F. et al. Plant traits alone are poor predictors of ecosystem properties and long-term ecosystem functioning. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4, 1602–1611 (2020). PubMed DOI
Heisler-White, J. L., Knapp, A. K. & Kelly, E. F. Increasing precipitation event size increases aboveground net primary productivity in a semi-arid grassland. Oecologia 158, 129–140 (2008). PubMed DOI
Xia, J. et al. Spatio-temporal patterns and climate variables controlling of biomass carbon stock of global grassland ecosystems from 1982 to 2006. Remote Sens. 6, 1783–1802 (2014). DOI
Orndahl, K. M., Macander, M. J., Berner, L. T. & Goetz, S. J. Plant functional type aboveground biomass change within Alaska and northwest Canada mapped using a 35-year satellite time series from 1985 to 2020. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 115010 (2022). DOI
Boone, R. B., Conant, R. T., Sircely, J., Thornton, P. K. & Herrero, M. Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 1382–1393 (2018). DOI
Andresen, L. C. et al. Biomass responses in a temperate European grassland through 17 years of elevated CO DOI
MacDougall, A. S. et al. Comparison of the distribution and phenology of Arctic mountain plants between the early 20th and 21st centuries. Glob. Change Biol. 27, 5070–5083 (2021). DOI
Möhl, P., von Büren, R. S. & Hiltbrunner, E. Growth of alpine grassland will start and stop earlier under climate warming. Nat. Commun. 13, 7398 (2022). PubMed DOI PMC
Friedman, A. R. et al. Interhemispheric temperature asymmetry over the twentieth century and in future projections. J. Clim. 26, 5419–5433 (2013). DOI
MacDougall, A. S., Wilson, S. D. & Bakker, J. D. Climatic variability alters the outcome of long‐term community assembly. J. Ecol. 96, 346–354 (2008). DOI
Grace, J. B. et al. Integrative modelling reveals mechanisms linking productivity and plant species richness. Nature 529, 390–393 (2016). PubMed DOI
Anderson, T. M. et al. Herbivory and eutrophication mediate grassland plant nutrient responses across a global climatic gradient. Ecology 99, 822–831 (2018). PubMed DOI
Dee, L. E. et al. Clarifying the effect of biodiversity on productivity in natural ecosystems with longitudinal data and methods for causal inference. Nat. Commun. 14, 2607 (2023). PubMed DOI PMC
Seabloom, E. W. et al. Plant species’ origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands. Nat. Commun. 6, 7710 (2015). PubMed DOI
Borer, E. T. et al. Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation. Nature 508, 517–520 (2014). PubMed DOI
Borer, E. T. et al. Nutrients cause grassland biomass to outpace herbivory. Nat. Commun. 11, 6036 (2020). PubMed DOI PMC
Delegido, J. et al. A red-edge spectral index for remote sensing estimation of green LAI over agroecosystems. Eur. J. Agron. 46, 42–52 (2013). DOI
Eisfelder, C. et al. Above-ground biomass estimation based on NPP time-series—a novel approach for biomass estimation in semi-arid Kazakhstan. Ecol. Indic. 72, 13–22 (2017). DOI
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O’Gorman, P. A. & Maher, N. More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 508–513 (2016). DOI
Zeng, X. et al. The global decline in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation from 2001 to 2018. Glob. Change Biol. 28, 6823–6833 (2022). DOI
Clay, D. E. et al. Does the conversion of grasslands to row crop in semi-arid areas threaten global food supplies? Glob. Food Secur. 3, 22–30 (2014). DOI
Godde, C. M. et al. Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 044021 (2020). DOI
Jackson, R. B., Banner, J. L., Jobbágy, E. G., Pockman, W. T. & Wall, D. H. Ecosystem carbon loss with woody plant invasion of grasslands. Nature 418, 623–626 (2002). PubMed DOI
Cleland, E. E. et al. Belowground biomass response to nutrient enrichment depends on light limitation across globally distributed grasslands. Ecosystems 7, 1466–1477 (2019). DOI
Hungate, B. A. et al. The fate of carbon in grasslands under carbon dioxide enrichment. Nature 388, 576–579 (1997). DOI
Chen, M. et al. Assessing precipitation, evapotranspiration, and NDVI as controls of US Great Plains plant production. Ecosphere 10, e02889 (2019). DOI
Jiang, Z. et al. Analysis of NDVI and scaled difference vegetation index retrievals of vegetation fraction. Remote Sens. Environ. 101, 366–378 (2006). DOI
Rocchini, D., Ricotta, C. & Chiarucci, A. Using satellite imagery to assess plant species richness: the role of multispectral systems. Appl. Veg. Sci. 10, 325–331 (2007). DOI
Kong, L. et al. Natural capital investments in China undermined by reclamation for cropland. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 7, 1771–1777 (2023).
Goldewijk, K. K. Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: the HYDE database. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 417–433 (2001). DOI
Lehmann, C. E. et al. Savanna vegetation–fire–climate relationships differ among continents. Science 343, 548–552 (2014). PubMed DOI
Firn, J. et al. Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities. Ecol. Lett. 14, 274–281 (2011). PubMed DOI
Potere, D. Horizontal positional accuracy of Google Earth’s high-resolution imagery archive. Sensors 8, 7973–7981 (2008). PubMed DOI PMC
Salinas-Castillo, W. E. & Paredes-Hernández, C. U. Horizontal and vertical accuracy of Google Earth®: comment on ‘Positional accuracy of the Google Earth terrain model derived from stratigraphic unconformities in the Big Bend region, Texas, USA’ by S.C. Benker, R.P. Langford and T.L. Pavlis. Geocarto Int. 29, 625–627 (2014). DOI
Landsat Collection 1. United States Geological Survey (USGS) https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-collection-1 (2023).
Huete, A. et al. Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 195–213 (2002). DOI
Young, A. T. Rayleigh scattering. Appl. Opt. 20, 533–535 (1981). PubMed DOI
R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing; https://www.R-project.org/ (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2021).
Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N. & Elphick, C. S. A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems. Methods Ecol. Evol. 1, 3–14 (2010). DOI
Gelman, A. arm: Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models; http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/arm (2011).
Grueber, C. E., Nakagawa, S., Laws, R. J. & Jamieson, I. G. Multi-model inference in ecology and evolution: challenges and solutions. J. Evol. Biol. 24, 699–711 (2011). PubMed DOI
Seabloom, E. W. et al. Species loss due to nutrient addition increases with spatial scale in global grasslands. Ecol. Lett. 24, 2100–2112 (2021). PubMed DOI