The European Final Palaeolithic witnessed marked changes in almost all societal domains. Despite a rich body of evidence, our knowledge of human palaeodemographic processes and regional population dynamics still needs to be improved. In this study, we present regionally differentiated population estimates for the Greenland Interstadial 1d-a (GI-1d-a; 14-12.7 ka cal BP) and the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1; 12.7-11.6 ka cal BP) for Southern, Western, Northern and Central Europe. The data were obtained by applying the Cologne Protocol, a geostatistical approach for estimating prehistoric population size and density, to a newly compiled dataset of Final Palaeolithic sites. On a large spatio-temporal scale and compared to preceding Upper Palaeolithic phases, areas north of the Alps become the dominant demographic growth area for the first time since the dispersal of anatomically modern humans into Europe. At smaller scales, we observe divergent regional trends, with a conspicuous lack of archaeological evidence appearing in previously occupied areas of central France and Germany. Our study also shows that during the Final Palaeolithic, the climatic cooling of GS-1 coincides with a pronounced population decline in most parts of the study area. An apparent increase in population density occurs only in north-eastern Central Europe and north-eastern Italy. Our estimates suggest that the total population was reduced by half. Similar results, with a relationship between decreasing temperatures and decreasing populations, have already been observed for the late phase of the Gravettian, when populations were reduced to only one third of those estimated for the early phase. Yet, in contrast to the collapse of local populations during the late Gravettian, the increase in population densities in Central Europe during GS-1 indicates population movements eastwards, possibly in response to deteriorating climatic conditions, particularly in western regions during the Younger Dryas.

Centre for Cultural Anthropology Moravian Museum Brno Czech Republic

CNRS Laboratoire PACEA UMR 5199 Université de Bordeaux Bordeaux France

CNRS UMR 8068 TEMPS MSH MONDES Nanterre France

Department of Archaeology and Heritage Studies Aarhus University Aarhus Denmark

Department of Archaeology Prehistory Research Unit Ghent University Ghent Belgium

Department of Archaeology University of York York United Kingdom

Department of Humanities Prehistoric and Anthropological Sciences Unit University of Ferrara Ferrara Italy

Department of Old World and Asian Studies University Erlangen Nürnberg Erlangen Germany

Faculty of Archaeology Adam Mickiewicz University Poznań Poland

Faculty of Archaeology Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands

Heinrich Schliemann Institute of Ancient Studies Seminar for Prehistoric Archaeology University of Rostock Rostock Germany

Institute of Archaeology of the Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering National Council of Research Milano Italy

Institute of Prehistoric Archaeology University of Cologne Cologne Germany

Interdisciplinary Center for Archaeology and the Evolution of Human Behaviour Universidade do Algarve Faro Portugal

Leibniz Zentrum für Archäologie Schleswig Germany

Museum for Archaeology Schleswig Holstein State Museums Foundation Schloss Gottorf Schleswig Germany

Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle CNRS HNHP UMR 7194 Paris France

Research bureau Old Land Eindhoven The Netherlands

Stichting STONE Foundation for Stone Age Research in the Netherlands Groningen The Netherlands

University of the Basque Country Faculty of Arts Vitoria Gasteiz Spain

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