Due to anthropogenic pressure some species have declined whereas others have increased within their native ranges. Simultaneously, many species introduced by humans have established self-sustaining populations elsewhere (i.e. have become naturalized aliens). Previous studies have shown that particularly plant species that are common within their native range have become naturalized elsewhere. However, how changes in native distributions correlate with naturalization elsewhere is unknown. We compare data on grid-cell occupancy of native vascular plant species over time for 10 European regions (countries or parts thereof). For nine regions, both early occupancy and occupancy change correlate positively with global naturalization success (quantified as naturalization in any administrative region and as the number of such regions). In other words, many plant species spreading globally as naturalized aliens are also expanding within their native regions. This implies that integrating data on native occupancy dynamics in invasion risk assessments might help prevent new invasions.

Biodiversity Macroecology and Biogeography University of Göttingen Göttingen Germany

Biometry Methodology and Quality Assurance Research Institute for Nature and Forest Brussel Belgium

Campus Institut Data Science University of Göttingen Göttingen Germany

Centre for Invasion Biology Department of Botany and Zoology Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch South Africa

Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use University of Göttingen Göttingen Germany

Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences University of Milan Milan Italy

Department of Biology University of Puerto Rico Rio Piedras San Juan Puerto Rico

Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Vienna Austria

Department of Botany and Zoology Faculty of Science Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

Department of Botany Faculty of Science Charles University Prague Czech Republic

Department of Ecology Faculty of Science Charles University Prague Czech Republic

Department of Evolution Ecology and Behaviour Institute of Infection Veterinary and Ecological Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK

Department of Geoecology Institute of Botany Czech Academy of Sciences Průhonice Czech Republic

Department of Invasion Ecology Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Botany Průhonice Czech Republic

Department of Taxonomy Institute of Botany Czech Academy of Sciences Průhonice Czech Republic

Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes anthropisés University of Picardie Jules Verne Amiens France

Ecology Department of Biology University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig Leipzig Germany

International Max Planck Research School for Quantitative Behaviour Ecology and Evolution Max Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour Konstanz Germany

State Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun China

State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research East China Normal University Shanghai China

Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation Taizhou University Taizhou China

Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station Institute of Eco Chongming Research Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences East China Normal University Shanghai China

Zhejiang Zhoushan Island Ecosystem Observation and Research Station Zhoushan China

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