Host abundance and landscape structure often interact to shape spatial patterns of many wildlife diseases. Emergence, spread, and persistence of African swine fever (ASF) among wild boar in eastern Europe has raised questions on the factors underlying ASF dynamics in this novel host-pathogen system. This work identifies drivers of ASF occurrence in natural wild boar population. We evaluated factors shaping the probability of ASF-postitive wild boar during the first three years (2014-2016) of the ASF epidemic in Poland. We expected to observe positive effects of wild boar density, proportion of forested area, human activity, and proximity to previous infections on ASF case probability. We tested these predictions using the infection status of 830 wild boar samples and generalized mixed-effects models. The probability of ASF case increased from 3 to 20% as population density rose from 0.4 to 2 ind./km2. The positive effect of population density on ASF case probability was stronger at locations near previous ASF incidents. ASF was more likely to occur in forested areas, with the probability of detecting an ASF positive sample rising from 2 to 11% as forest cover around the sample increased from 0.5 to 100%. This pattern was consistent at both low and high wild boar densities. Indicators of human activity were poor predictors of ASF occurrence. Disease control efforts, such as culling and carcass search, should be focused on high-density populations where chances of detecting and eliminating ASF-positive wild boar are higher. The intensity of control measures should decrease with distance from the infected area to match the observed spatial pattern of ASF case probability. Woodlands represent areas of the highest risk of ASF case occurrence. Distribution and connectivity of suitable habitats over the landscape can be used to prioritize disease-management actions.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat epidemiologie MeSH
- biologické modely MeSH
- divoká zvířata MeSH
- epidemie veterinární MeSH
- interakce hostitele a patogenu * MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- pravděpodobnost MeSH
- prostorová analýza MeSH
- Sus scrofa MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat fyziologie MeSH
- životní prostředí MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Polsko MeSH
For the monitoring of wild boar interactions with conspecific carcasses, seven wild boar carcasses were placed in different sites in the Czech Republic during winter season. Data were collected by camera traps. In total, 732 visits were recorded of wild boars at the carcass sites. Direct contact with the carcass was detected in 81% of the records. Cannibalism was observed in 9.8% of all recorded visits. The first direct contact was observed on average 30 days after the carcass had been placed in its respective site. Cannibalism was observed on average after 70 days. The effect of sex-age class on direct contact was not proven in our study. The presented findings show that cannibalism in wild boar can play a substantial role in the ASF epidemic. These results highlighted the importance of the removal of infected carcasses from the habitat, which is crucial for African swine fever eradication.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat epidemiologie přenos virologie MeSH
- ekosystém MeSH
- epidemie veterinární MeSH
- kanibalismus MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- Sus scrofa MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat fyziologie MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- Klíčová slova
- Státní veterinární správa,
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat * epidemiologie MeSH
- epidemie veterinární MeSH
- infekční nemoci MeSH
- kontrola infekčních nemocí metody MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal disease infectious to wild and domesticated suids. This disease entered the European Union in 2014 and recently reached western Europe, with the first cases observed in Belgium in September 2018. Carcasses of ASF-infected wild boar play an important role in the spread and persistence of the virus in the environment. Thus, rapidly finding and removing carcasses is a crucial measure for effective ASF control. Using distribution modelling, we investigated whether the fine-scale distribution of ASF-infected animals can be predicted and support wild boar carcass searches. Our results suggest that ASF-infected wild boar selected deathbeds in cool and moist habitats; thus, deathbed choice was mostly influenced by topographic and water-dependent covariates. Furthermore, we show that in the case of an epidemic, it is important to quickly collect a minimum of 75-100 carcasses with exact locations to build a well-performing and efficient carcass distribution model. The proposed model provides an indication of where carcasses are most likely to be found and can be used as a guide to strategically allocate resources.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat epidemiologie prevence a kontrola virologie MeSH
- ekosystém MeSH
- epidemie veterinární MeSH
- Evropská unie MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- Sus scrofa MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat izolace a purifikace MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
