Forecasting insect responses to environmental variables at local and global spatial scales remains a crucial task in Ecology. However, predicting future responses requires long-term datasets, which are rarely available for insects, especially in the tropics. From 2002 to 2017, we recorded male ant incidence of 155 ant species at ten malaise traps on the 50-ha ForestGEO plot in Barro Colorado Island. In this Panamanian tropical rainforest, traps were deployed for two weeks during the wet and dry seasons. Short-term changes in the timing of male flying activity were pronounced, and compositionally distinct assemblages flew during the wet and dry seasons. Notably, the composition of these distinct flying assemblages oscillated in consistent 4-year cycles but did not change during the 16-year study period. Across time, a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model explained 75% of long-term variability in male ant production (i.e., the summed incidence of male species across traps), which responded negatively to monthly maximum temperature, and positively to sea surface temperature, a surrogate for El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Establishing these relationships allowed us to forecast ant production until 2022 when year-long local climate variables were available. Consistent with the data, the forecast indicated no significant changes in long-term temporal trends of male ant production. However, simulations of different scenarios of climate variables found that strong ENSO events and maximum temperature impacted male ant production positively and negatively, respectively. Our results highlight the dependence of ant male production on both short- and long-term temperature changes, which is critical under current global warming.

• Klíčová slova
• Ant reproduction, Barro Colorado Island, Climate change, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Formicidae, Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors, Time-series, Tropical forests,
• MeSH
• deštný prales MeSH
• ENSO MeSH
• Formicidae * fyziologie   MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• roční období * MeSH
• teplota MeSH
• tropické klima * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH

The soil fauna of the tropics remains one of the least known components of the biosphere. Long-term monitoring of this fauna is hampered by the lack of taxonomic expertise and funding. These obstacles may potentially be lifted with DNA metabarcoding. To validate this approach, we studied the ants, springtails and termites of 100 paired soil samples from Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The fauna was extracted with Berlese-Tullgren funnels and then either sorted with traditional taxonomy and known, individual DNA barcodes ("traditional samples") or processed with metabarcoding ("metabarcoding samples"). We detected 49 ant, 37 springtail and 34 termite species with 3.46 million reads of the COI gene, at a mean sequence length of 233 bp. Traditional identification yielded 80, 111 and 15 species of ants, springtails and termites, respectively; 98%, 37% and 100% of these species had a Barcode Index Number (BIN) allowing for direct comparison with metabarcoding. Ants were best surveyed through traditional methods, termites were better detected by metabarcoding, and springtails were equally well detected by both techniques. Species richness was underestimated, and faunal composition was different in metabarcoding samples, mostly because 37% of ant species were not detected. The prevalence of species in metabarcoding samples increased with their abundance in traditional samples, and seasonal shifts in species prevalence and faunal composition were similar between traditional and metabarcoding samples. Probable false positive and negative species records were reasonably low (13-18% of common species). We conclude that metabarcoding of samples extracted with Berlese-Tullgren funnels appear suitable for the long-term monitoring of termites and springtails in tropical rainforests. For ants, metabarcoding schemes should be complemented by additional samples of alates from Malaise or light traps.

• MeSH
• biodiverzita MeSH
• členovci * genetika   MeSH
• DNA genetika   MeSH
• Formicidae * genetika   MeSH
• Isoptera * genetika   MeSH
• půda MeSH
• taxonomické DNA čárové kódování metody   MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Názvy látek
• DNA MeSH
• půda MeSH

Tropical forests sustain many ant species whose mating events often involve conspicuous flying swarms of winged gynes and males. The success of these reproductive flights depends on environmental variables and determines the maintenance of local ant diversity. However, we lack a strong understanding of the role of environmental variables in shaping the phenology of these flights. Using a combination of community-level analyses and a time-series model on male abundance, we studied male ant phenology in a seasonally wet lowland rainforest in the Panama Canal. The male flights of 161 ant species, sampled with 10 Malaise traps during 58 consecutive weeks (from August 2014 to September 2015), varied widely in number (mean = 9.8 weeks, median = 4, range = 1 to 58). Those species abundant enough for analysis (n = 97) flew mainly towards the end of the dry season and at the start of the rainy season. While litterfall, rain, temperature, and air humidity explained community composition, the time-series model estimators elucidated more complex patterns of reproductive investment across the entire year. For example, male abundance increased in weeks when maximum daily temperature increased and in wet weeks during the dry season. On the contrary, male abundance decreased in periods when rain receded (e.g., at the start of the dry season), in periods when rain fell daily (e.g., right after the beginning of the wet season), or when there was an increase in the short-term rate of litterfall (e.g., at the end of the dry season). Together, these results suggest that the BCI ant community is adapted to the dry/wet transition as the best timing of reproductive investment. We hypothesize that current climate change scenarios for tropical regions with higher average temperature, but lower rainfall, may generate phenological mismatches between reproductive flights and the adequate conditions needed for a successful start of the colony.

• MeSH
• déšť MeSH
• Formicidae * MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• lesy MeSH
• roční období MeSH
• stromy MeSH
• tropické klima * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH

The top-down and indirect effects of insects on plant communities depend on patterns of host use, which are often poorly documented, particularly in species-rich tropical forests. At Barro Colorado Island, Panama, we compiled the first food web quantifying trophic interactions between the majority of co-occurring woody plant species and their internally feeding insect seed predators. Our study is based on more than 200 000 fruits representing 478 plant species, associated with 369 insect species. Insect host-specificity was remarkably high: only 20% of seed predator species were associated with more than one plant species, while each tree species experienced seed predation from a median of two insect species. Phylogeny, but not plant traits, explained patterns of seed predator attack. These data suggest that seed predators are unlikely to mediate indirect interactions such as apparent competition between plant species, but are consistent with their proposed contribution to maintaining plant diversity via the Janzen-Connell mechanism.

• Klíčová slova
• Apparent competition, Barro Colorado Island, Janzen-Connell hypothesis, Panama, host specialisation, interaction network, plant traits, quantitative food web, seed predation,
• MeSH
• biodiverzita MeSH
• fylogeneze MeSH
• hmyz * MeSH
• lesy * MeSH
• potravní řetězec * MeSH
• semena rostlinná MeSH
• tropické klima * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• dopisy MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Panama MeSH

We have little knowledge of the response of invertebrate assemblages to climate change in tropical ecosystems, and few studies have compiled long-term data on invertebrates from tropical rainforests. We provide an updated list of the 72 species of Saturniidae moths collected on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, during the period 1958-2016. This list will serve as baseline data for assessing long-term changes of saturniids on BCI in the future, as 81% of the species can be identified by their unique DNA Barcode Index Number, including four cryptic species not yet formally described. A local species pool of 60 + species breeding on BCI appears plausible, but more cryptic species may be discovered in the future. We use monitoring data obtained by light trapping to analyze recent population trends on BCI for saturniid species that were relatively common during 2009-2016, a period representing >30 saturniid generations. The abundances of 11 species, of 14 tested, could be fitted to significant time-series models. While the direction of change in abundance was uncertain for most species, two species showed a significant increase over time, and forecast models also suggested continuing increases for most species during 2017-2018, as compared to the 2009 base year. Peaks in saturniid abundance were most conspicuous during El Niño and La Niña years. In addition to a species-specific approach, we propose a reproducible functional classification based on five functional traits to analyze the responses of species sharing similar functional attributes in a fluctuating climate. Our results suggest that the abundances of larger body-size species with good dispersal abilities may increase concomitantly with rising air temperature in the future, because short-lived adults may allocate less time to increasing body temperature for flight, leaving more time available for searching for mating partners or suitable oviposition sites.

• Klíčová slova
• DNA barcoding, climatic anomalies, functional groups, monitoring, population dynamics, rainforest, species traits,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

Quantifying the spatio-temporal distribution of arthropods in tropical rainforests represents a first step towards scrutinizing the global distribution of biodiversity on Earth. To date most studies have focused on narrow taxonomic groups or lack a design that allows partitioning of the components of diversity. Here, we consider an exceptionally large dataset (113,952 individuals representing 5,858 species), obtained from the San Lorenzo forest in Panama, where the phylogenetic breadth of arthropod taxa was surveyed using 14 protocols targeting the soil, litter, understory, lower and upper canopy habitats, replicated across seasons in 2003 and 2004. This dataset is used to explore the relative influence of horizontal, vertical and seasonal drivers of arthropod distribution in this forest. We considered arthropod abundance, observed and estimated species richness, additive decomposition of species richness, multiplicative partitioning of species diversity, variation in species composition, species turnover and guild structure as components of diversity. At the scale of our study (2 km of distance, 40 m in height and 400 days), the effects related to the vertical and seasonal dimensions were most important. Most adult arthropods were collected from the soil/litter or the upper canopy and species richness was highest in the canopy. We compared the distribution of arthropods and trees within our study system. Effects related to the seasonal dimension were stronger for arthropods than for trees. We conclude that: (1) models of beta diversity developed for tropical trees are unlikely to be applicable to tropical arthropods; (2) it is imperative that estimates of global biodiversity derived from mass collecting of arthropods in tropical rainforests embrace the strong vertical and seasonal partitioning observed here; and (3) given the high species turnover observed between seasons, global climate change may have severe consequences for rainforest arthropods.

• MeSH
• biodiverzita * MeSH
• členovci fyziologie   MeSH
• deštný prales MeSH
• ekosystém * MeSH
• fylogeneze MeSH
• rozšíření zvířat fyziologie   MeSH
• tropické klima MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Panama MeSH

Few data are available about the regional or local extinction of tropical butterfly species. When confirmed, local extinction was often due to the loss of host-plant species. We used published lists and recent monitoring programs to evaluate changes in butterfly composition on Barro Colorado Island (BCI, Panama) between an old (1923-1943) and a recent (1993-2013) period. Although 601 butterfly species have been recorded from BCI during the 1923-2013 period, we estimate that 390 species are currently breeding on the island, including 34 cryptic species, currently only known by their DNA Barcode Index Number. Twenty-three butterfly species that were considered abundant during the old period could not be collected during the recent period, despite a much higher sampling effort in recent times. We consider these species locally extinct from BCI and they conservatively represent 6% of the estimated local pool of resident species. Extinct species represent distant phylogenetic branches and several families. The butterfly traits most likely to influence the probability of extinction were host growth form, wing size and host specificity, independently of the phylogenetic relationships among butterfly species. On BCI, most likely candidates for extinction were small hesperiids feeding on herbs (35% of extinct species). However, contrary to our working hypothesis, extinction of these species on BCI cannot be attributed to loss of host plants. In most cases these host plants remain extant, but they probably subsist at lower or more fragmented densities. Coupled with low dispersal power, this reduced availability of host plants has probably caused the local extinction of some butterfly species. Many more bird than butterfly species have been lost from BCI recently, confirming that small preserves may be far more effective at conserving invertebrates than vertebrates and, therefore, should not necessarily be neglected from a conservation viewpoint.

• MeSH
• ekosystém MeSH
• extinkce biologická * MeSH
• fylogeneze * MeSH
• motýli genetika   fyziologie   MeSH
• ostrovy MeSH
• taxonomické DNA čárové kódování * MeSH
• tropické klima MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• ostrovy MeSH
• Panama MeSH