Understanding potential differences in vaccine-induced protection between demographic subgroups is key for vaccine development. Vaccine efficacy evaluation across these subgroups in phase 2b or 3 clinical trials presents challenges due to lack of precision: such trials are typically designed to demonstrate overall efficacy rather than to differentiate its value between subgroups. This study proposes a method for estimating vaccine efficacy using immunogenicity (instead of vaccination status) as a predictor in time-to-event models. The method is applied to two datasets from immunogenicity sub-studies of vaccine phase 3 clinical trials for zoster and dengue vaccines. Results show that using immunogenicity-based estimation of efficacy in subgroups using time-to-event models is more precise than the standard estimation. Incorporating immune correlate data in time-to-event models improves precision in estimating efficacy (i.e., yields narrower confidence intervals), which can assist vaccine developers and public health authorities in making informed decisions.

• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

BACKGROUND: Vaccine efficacy (VE) assessed in a randomized controlled clinical trial can be affected by demographic, clinical, and other subject-specific characteristics evaluated as baseline covariates. Understanding the effect of covariates on efficacy is key to decisions by vaccine developers and public health authorities. METHODS: This work evaluates the impact of including correlate of protection (CoP) data in logistic regression on its performance in identifying statistically and clinically significant covariates in settings typical for a vaccine phase 3 trial. The proposed approach uses CoP data and covariate data as predictors of clinical outcome (diseased versus non-diseased) and is compared to logistic regression (without CoP data) to relate vaccination status and covariate data to clinical outcome. RESULTS: Clinical trial simulations, in which the true relationship between CoP data and clinical outcome probability is a sigmoid function, show that use of CoP data increases the positive predictive value for detection of a covariate effect. If the true relationship is characterized by a decreasing convex function, use of CoP data does not substantially change positive or negative predictive value. In either scenario, vaccine efficacy is estimated more precisely (i.e., confidence intervals are narrower) in covariate-defined subgroups if CoP data are used, implying that using CoP data increases the ability to determine clinical significance of baseline covariate effects on efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes and evaluates a novel approach for assessing baseline demographic covariates potentially affecting VE. Results show that the proposed approach can sensitively and specifically identify potentially important covariates and provides a method for evaluating their likely clinical significance in terms of predicted impact on vaccine efficacy. It shows further that inclusion of CoP data can enable more precise VE estimation, thus enhancing study power and/or efficiency and providing even better information to support health policy and development decisions.

• Klíčová slova
• Baseline covariates, Correlate of protection, Logistic regression, Relative risk, Vaccine efficacy,
• MeSH
• demografie statistika a číselné údaje   MeSH
• klinické zkoušky, fáze III jako téma statistika a číselné údaje   metody   MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• logistické modely MeSH
• počítačová simulace MeSH
• randomizované kontrolované studie jako téma statistika a číselné údaje   metody   MeSH
• účinnost vakcíny * statistika a číselné údaje   MeSH
• vakcinace statistika a číselné údaje   metody   MeSH
• vakcíny terapeutické užití   MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Názvy látek
• vakcíny MeSH

Vaccine efficacy is often assessed by counting disease cases in a clinical trial. A new quantitative framework proposed here ("PoDBAY," Probability of Disease Bayesian Analysis), estimates vaccine efficacy (and confidence interval) using immune response biomarker data collected shortly after vaccination. Given a biomarker associated with protection, PoDBAY describes the relationship between biomarker and probability of disease as a sigmoid probability of disease ("PoD") curve. The PoDBAY framework is illustrated using clinical trial simulations and with data for influenza, zoster, and dengue virus vaccines. The simulations demonstrate that PoDBAY efficacy estimation (which integrates the PoD and biomarker data), can be accurate and more precise than the standard (case-count) estimation, contributing to more sensitive and specific decisions than threshold-based correlate of protection or case-count-based methods. For all three vaccine examples, the PoD fit indicates a substantial association between the biomarkers and protection, and efficacy estimated by PoDBAY from relatively little immunogenicity data is predictive of the standard estimate of efficacy, demonstrating how PoDBAY can provide early assessments of vaccine efficacy. Methods like PoDBAY can help accelerate and economize vaccine development using an immunological predictor of protection. For example, in the current effort against the COVID-19 pandemic it might provide information to help prioritize (rank) candidates both earlier in a trial and earlier in development.

• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH