Forecasting insect responses to environmental variables at local and global spatial scales remains a crucial task in Ecology. However, predicting future responses requires long-term datasets, which are rarely available for insects, especially in the tropics. From 2002 to 2017, we recorded male ant incidence of 155 ant species at ten malaise traps on the 50-ha ForestGEO plot in Barro Colorado Island. In this Panamanian tropical rainforest, traps were deployed for two weeks during the wet and dry seasons. Short-term changes in the timing of male flying activity were pronounced, and compositionally distinct assemblages flew during the wet and dry seasons. Notably, the composition of these distinct flying assemblages oscillated in consistent 4-year cycles but did not change during the 16-year study period. Across time, a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model explained 75% of long-term variability in male ant production (i.e., the summed incidence of male species across traps), which responded negatively to monthly maximum temperature, and positively to sea surface temperature, a surrogate for El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Establishing these relationships allowed us to forecast ant production until 2022 when year-long local climate variables were available. Consistent with the data, the forecast indicated no significant changes in long-term temporal trends of male ant production. However, simulations of different scenarios of climate variables found that strong ENSO events and maximum temperature impacted male ant production positively and negatively, respectively. Our results highlight the dependence of ant male production on both short- and long-term temperature changes, which is critical under current global warming.

• Klíčová slova
• Ant reproduction, Barro Colorado Island, Climate change, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Formicidae, Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors, Time-series, Tropical forests,
• MeSH
• deštný prales MeSH
• ENSO MeSH
• Formicidae * fyziologie   MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• roční období * MeSH
• teplota MeSH
• tropické klima * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH

Understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines has become an important goal in ecology, particularly in the tropics, where most terrestrial diversity exists. Over the past 12 years, the ForestGEO Arthropod Initiative has systematically monitored multiple insect groups on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, providing baseline data for assessing long-term population trends. Here, we estimate the rates of change in abundance among 96 tiger moth species on BCI. Population trends of most species were stable (n = 20) or increasing (n = 62), with few (n = 14) declining species. Our analysis of morphological and climatic sensitivity traits associated with population trends shows that species-specific responses to climate were most strongly linked with trends. Specifically, tiger moth species that are more abundant in warmer and wetter years are more likely to show population increases. Our study contrasts with recent findings indicating insect decline in tropical and temperate regions. These results highlight the significant role of biotic responses to climate in determining long-term population trends and suggest that future climate changes are likely to impact tropical insect communities.

• Klíčová slova
• Panama, climate change, functional traits, population trend, rainforest,
• MeSH
• ekologie MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• můry * fyziologie   MeSH
• stromy MeSH
• tropické klima * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Colorado MeSH