Nejvíce citovaný článek - PubMed ID 31462777
Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
In this paper, a sequence (1979-2022) of a long-term trial established in Lukavec in 1956 (Czech Republic) focusing on the effect of weather, various nitrogen (N) fertilization methods (control, PK, N1PK, N2PK, and N3PK) and preceding crops (cereals, legumes, and oil plants) on winter wheat grain yield is presented. The weather significantly changed at the site of the long-term trial. While the trend in the mean temperature significantly increased, precipitation did not change significantly over the long term. Four relationships between weather and grain yield were evaluated to be significant: (a) the mean temperature in February (r = -0.4) and the precipitation in (b) February (r = -0.4), (c) March (r = -0.4), and (d) May (r = 0.5). The yield trends for all the fertilizer treatments increased, including the unfertilized control. The N3PK treatment provided the highest mean grain yields, while the unfertilized control had the lowest yields. Comparing the preceding crops, the highest yields were harvested when the wheat followed the legumes. On the other hand, the cereals were evaluated as the least suitable preceding crop in terms of grain yield. According to the linear-plateau model, the optimal nitrogen (N) dose for modern wheat varieties, following legumes and under the trial's soil climate conditions, was 131 kg ha-1 N, corresponding to a mean grain yield of 8.2 t ha-1.
- Klíčová slova
- Triticum aestivum L., air temperature, correlation, crop rotation, linear plateau model, mineral N, precipitation,
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
STUDY REGION: The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe. STUDY FOCUS: Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and society, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. However, understanding changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes is associated with great uncertainty due to the limited number of gauge observations. Here, we compile a tree-ring network to reconstruct the July-September baseflow variability of the Morava River from 1745 to 2018 CE. An ensemble of reconstructions was produced to assess the impact of calibration period length and trend on the long-term mean of reconstruction estimates. The final estimates represent the first baseflow reconstruction based on tree rings from the European continent. Simulated flows and historical documentation provide quantitative and qualitative validation of estimates prior to the 20th century. NEW HYDROLOGICAL INSIGHTS FOR THE REGION: The reconstructions indicate an increased variability of warm-season flow during the past 100 years, with the most extreme high and low flows occurring after the start of instrumental observations. When analyzing the entire reconstruction, the negative trend in baseflow displayed by gauges across the basin after 1960 is not unprecedented. We conjecture that even lower flows could likely occur in the future considering that pre-instrumental trends were not primarily driven by rising temperature (and the evaporative demand) in contrast to the recent trends.
- Klíčová slova
- Baseflow, Extremes, Morava, Reconstruction, Tree rings,
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Anomalies in the frequency of river floods, i.e., flood-rich or -poor periods, cause biases in flood risk estimates and thus make climate adaptation measures less efficient. While observations have recently confirmed the presence of flood anomalies in Europe, their exact causes are not clear. Here we analyse streamflow and climate observations during 1960-2010 to show that shifts in flood generation processes contribute more to the occurrence of regional flood anomalies than changes in extreme rainfall. A shift from rain on dry soil to rain on wet soil events by 5% increased the frequency of flood-rich periods in the Atlantic region, and an opposite shift in the Mediterranean region increased the frequency of flood-poor periods, but will likely make singular extreme floods occur more often. Flood anomalies driven by changing flood generation processes in Europe may further intensify in a warming climate and should be considered in flood estimation and management.
- Klíčová slova
- Hydrology, Natural hazards,
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way1. Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe2. However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
One of the characteristics of global climate change is the increase in extreme climate events, e.g., droughts and floods. Forest adaptation strategies to extreme climate events are the key to predict ecosystem responses to global change. Severe floods alter the hydrological regime of an ecosystem which influences biochemical processes that control greenhouse gas fluxes. We conducted a flooding experiment in a mature grey alder (Alnus incana (L.) Moench) forest to understand flux dynamics in the soil-tree-atmosphere continuum related to ecosystem N2O and CH4 turn-over. The gas exchange was determined at adjacent soil-tree-pairs: stem fluxes were measured in vertical profiles using manual static chambers and gas chromatography; soil fluxes were measured with automated chambers connected to a gas analyser. The tree stems and soil surface were net sources of N2O and CH4 during the flooding. Contrary to N2O, the increase in CH4 fluxes delayed in response to flooding. Stem N2O fluxes were lower although stem CH4 emissions were significantly higher than from soil after the flooding. Stem fluxes decreased with stem height. Our flooding experiment indicated soil water and nitrogen content as the main controlling factors of stem and soil N2O fluxes. The stems contributed up to 88% of CH4 emissions to the stem-soil continuum during the investigated period but soil N2O fluxes dominated (up to 16 times the stem fluxes) during all periods. Conclusively, stem fluxes of CH4 and N2O are essential elements in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles and must be included in relevant models.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH