BACKGROUND AND AIM: The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally. METHODS: We analysed data from 455 cities across 20 countries from 3 February to 31 October 2020. We used a time-series analysis that assumes a quasi-Poisson distribution of the cases and incorporates distributed lag non-linear modelling for the exposure associations at the city-level while considering effects of autocorrelation, long-term trends, and day of the week. The confounding by governmental measures was accounted for by incorporating the Oxford Governmental Stringency Index. The effects of daily mean air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, and UV radiation were estimated by applying a meta-regression of local estimates with multi-level random effects for location, country, and climatic zone. RESULTS: We found that air temperature and absolute humidity influenced the spread of COVID-19 over a lag period of 15 days. Pooling the estimates globally showed that overall low temperatures (7.5 °C compared to 17.0 °C) and low absolute humidity (6.0 g/m3 compared to 11.0 g/m3) were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (RR temp =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.08; 1.64 and RR AH =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.12; 1.57). RH revealed no significant trend and for UV some evidence of a positive association was found. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. However, the study results also emphasise the heterogeneity of these associations in different countries. CONCLUSION: Globally, our results suggest that comparatively low temperatures and low absolute humidity were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 incidence. However, this study underlines regional heterogeneity of weather-related effects on COVID-19 transmission.

• Klíčová slova
• COVID-19, Distributed lag non-linear modelling, Global analysis, Humidity, Temperature, UV radiation,
• MeSH
• COVID-19 * epidemiologie   MeSH
• incidence MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• teplota MeSH
• ultrafialové záření MeSH
• velkoměsta epidemiologie   MeSH
• vlhkost MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Čína epidemiologie   MeSH
• velkoměsta epidemiologie   MeSH

Molecular simulation trajectories represent high-dimensional data. Such data can be visualized by methods of dimensionality reduction. Non-linear dimensionality reduction methods are likely to be more efficient than linear ones due to the fact that motions of atoms are non-linear. Here we test a popular non-linear t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) method on analysis of trajectories of 200 ns alanine dipeptide dynamics and 208 μs Trp-cage folding and unfolding. Furthermore, we introduce a time-lagged variant of t-SNE in order to focus on rarely occurring transitions in the molecular system. This time-lagged t-SNE efficiently separates states according to distance in time. Using this method it is possible to visualize key states of studied systems (e.g., unfolded and folded protein) as well as possible kinetic traps using a two-dimensional plot. Time-lagged t-SNE is a visualization method and other applications, such as clustering and free energy modeling, must be done with caution.

• Klíčová slova
• Time-lagged Independent Component Analysis, dimensionality reduction, molecular dynamics, tSNE, trajectory analysis,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-borne virus primarily transmitted by Culex mosquitoes, among birds, but occasionally infecting humans and equids. Understanding environmental factors on the disease occurrence is crucial for planning effective prevention and control strategies. Our study estimates the short-term effects of ambient temperature, relative humidity and precipitation on weekly cases of WNV in equids in Spain, using a space-time stratified case-crossover design. Because WNV transmission occurs sometime after the weather conditions become favorable for the vector, we aimed to estimate the lagged effect of the three weather variables on the incidence of WNV cases in equids. Therefore, we applied a conditional Poisson regression within the framework of lag-distributed models. These models are particularly effective for examining the delayed effects of exposures. The incidence of WNV confirmed cases was associated with temperatures registered within the prior two and eight weeks. The highest incidence was observed at lag four, where the incident rate ratio (IRR) increased to 11.96 (95 % CI: 9.84-50.40) with mean temperature at 33 °C, likewise relative humidity effect peaked also at lag four (IRR=3.99; 95 % CI: 1.43-11.16) at 93 % of relative humidity. On the other hand, the confidence intervals for precipitation were very wide, making it difficult to discern a clear change in the risk of WNV infection associated with total precipitation. This study sheds light on the complex relationships between meteorological variables and the incidence of WNV cases. Considering the zoonotic nature of the disease, these results could provide valuable information for surveillance and early warning of the disease.

• Klíčová slova
• Case-crossover design, Distributed lag non-linear models, Equids, Precipitation, Relative humidity, Temperature, West Nile virus,
• MeSH
• Equidae * virologie   MeSH
• incidence MeSH
• klinické křížové studie MeSH
• koně MeSH
• nemoci koní * epidemiologie   virologie   MeSH
• počasí * MeSH
• teplota MeSH
• virus západního Nilu izolace a purifikace   MeSH
• vlhkost MeSH
• západonilská horečka * epidemiologie   veterinární   MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Španělsko epidemiologie   MeSH

BACKGROUND: There is strong experimental evidence that physiologic stress from high temperatures is greater if humidity is higher. However, heat indices developed to allow for this have not consistently predicted mortality better than dry-bulb temperature. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to clarify the potential contribution of humidity an addition to temperature in predicting daily mortality in summer by using a large multicountry dataset. METHODS: In 445 cities in 24 countries, we fit a time-series regression model for summer mortality with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for temperature (up to lag 3) and supplemented this with a range of terms for relative humidity (RH) and its interaction with temperature. City-specific associations were summarized using meta-analytic techniques. RESULTS: Adding a linear term for RH to the temperature term improved fit slightly, with an increase of 23% in RH (the 99th percentile anomaly) associated with a 1.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8, 1.3] decrease in mortality. Allowing curvature in the RH term or adding terms for interaction of RH with temperature did not improve the model fit. The humidity-related decreased risk was made up of a positive coefficient at lag 0 outweighed by negative coefficients at lags of 1-3 d. Key results were broadly robust to small model changes and replacing RH with absolute measures of humidity. Replacing temperature with apparent temperature, a metric combining humidity and temperature, reduced goodness of fit slightly. DISCUSSION: The absence of a positive association of humidity with mortality in summer in this large multinational study is counter to expectations from physiologic studies, though consistent with previous epidemiologic studies finding little evidence for improved prediction by heat indices. The result that there was a small negative average association of humidity with mortality should be interpreted cautiously; the lag structure has unclear interpretation and suggests the need for future work to clarify. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5430.

• MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mortalita trendy   MeSH
• nelineární dynamika MeSH
• roční období MeSH
• velkoměsta MeSH
• vlhkost * MeSH
• vysoká teplota * MeSH
• vystavení vlivu životního prostředí statistika a číselné údaje   MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• velkoměsta MeSH

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. METHODS: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. FINDINGS: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. INTERPRETATION: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

• MeSH
• adaptorové proteiny signální transdukční MeSH
• podnebí * MeSH
• veřejné zdravotnictví * MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Austrálie MeSH
• Evropa MeSH
• Názvy látek
• adaptorové proteiny signální transdukční MeSH

It is acknowledged that climate change exacerbates social inequalities, and women have been reported as more vulnerable to heat than men in many studies in Europe, including the Czech Republic. This study aimed at investigating the associations between daily temperature and mortality in the Czech Republic in the light of a sex and gender perspective, taking into account other factors such as age and marital status. Daily mean temperature and individual mortality data recorded during the five warmest months of the year (from May to September) over the period 1995-2019 were used to fit a quasi-Poisson regression model, which included a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to account for the delayed and non-linear effects of temperature on mortality. The heat-related mortality risks obtained in each population group were expressed in terms of risk at the 99th percentile of summer temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature. Women were found generally more at risk to die because of heat than men, and the difference was larger among people over 85 years old. Risks among married people were lower than risks among single, divorced, and widowed people, while risks in divorced women were significantly higher than in divorced men. This is a novel finding which highlights the potential role of gender inequalities in heat-related mortality. Our study underlines the relevance of including a sex and gender dimension in the analysis of the impacts of heat on the population and advocates the development of gender-based adaptation policies to extreme heat.

• Klíčová slova
• Czech Republic, DLNM, Heat stress, Mortality, Sex and gender inequalities,
• MeSH
• genderová rovnost * MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mortalita MeSH
• senioři nad 80 let MeSH
• teplota MeSH
• vysoká teplota * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• senioři nad 80 let MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Česká republika epidemiologie   MeSH
• Evropa MeSH

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale. DESIGN: Time series study. SETTING: 761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period. PARTICIPANTS: Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events. RESULTS: A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 days (50 days for cardiovascular mortality) after a flooded day. The cumulative relative risks for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.021 (95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.036), 1.026 (1.005 to 1.047), and 1.049 (1.008 to 1.092), respectively. The associations varied across countries or territories and regions. The flood-mortality associations appeared to be modified by climate type and were stronger in low income countries and in populations with a low human development index or high proportion of older people. In communities impacted by flood, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floods. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased for up to 60 days after exposure to flood and the associations could vary by local climate type, socioeconomic status, and older age.

• MeSH
• časové faktory MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mortalita MeSH
• nemoci dýchací soustavy * MeSH
• podnebí MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• záplavy * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Austrálie epidemiologie   MeSH

Climate change issues present substantial obstacles to the global community's stability and humanity's overall welfare. Reducing carbon emissions is crucial in attaining environmental sustainability and addressing the consequences of SDG 13 (climate actions). The G7 nations, representing some of the largest economies globally and significantly contributing to global carbon emissions, have achieved certain advancements in mitigating their carbon footprint. Nevertheless, the attainment of carbon neutrality continues to pose a substantial obstacle. This study examines the mechanisms leading to environmental sustainability in G7 economies, explicitly emphasizing the contribution of research and development (R&D) toward attaining carbon neutrality. The present study utilizes G7 data from 1990 to 2020 to conduct an empirical analysis employing a cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CSARDL) panel model. The primary objective of this investigation is to examine the influence of R&D expenditure (R&DE) on carbon emissions metric ton (CO2Mt). Furthermore, this study investigates the current state of the EKC in the economies of the G7 nations, as well as the influence of renewable energy (RE) and non-renewable energy (NRE) on CO2Mt. The results suggest that R&DE is critical in mitigating CO2Mt and attaining carbon neutrality. The study also validates the EKC implies a negative and non-linear relationship between growth and CO2Mt. Moreover, renewable and non-renewable energy validate their respective negative and positive effects on CO2Mt. The findings of our study offer valuable insights for policymakers in the G7 nations, aiding them in developing effective regulatory measures for achieving carbon neutrality goals.

• Klíčová slova
• Carbon neutrality, EKC, Environmental stability, G7, R&D,
• MeSH
• ekonomický rozvoj MeSH
• obnovitelná energie MeSH
• oxid uhličitý MeSH
• průřezové studie MeSH
• sociální podmínky * MeSH
• uhlík * MeSH
• uhlíková stopa MeSH
• výzkum MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Názvy látek
• oxid uhličitý MeSH
• uhlík * MeSH

BACKGROUND: Only little is known about trends in temperature-mortality associations among the most vulnerable subgroups, especially in the areas of central and eastern Europe, which are considered major climatic hotspots in terms of heatwave exposure. Thus, we aimed to assess trends in temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic by sex, age and cause of death, and to quantify the temporal evolution of possible inequalities. METHODS: We collected daily time series of all-cause (1987-2019) and cause-specific (1994-2019) mortality by sex and age category, and population-weighted daily mean 2-metre temperatures for each region of the Czech Republic. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the trends in region-specific temperature-mortality associations, with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive average associations across the country. We then calculated mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures and implemented the indicator of sex- and age-dependent inequalities. RESULTS: We observed a similar risk of mortality due to cold temperatures for men and women. Conversely, for warm temperatures, a higher risk was observed for women. Results by age showed a clear pattern of increasing risk due to non-optimum temperatures with increasing age category. The relative risk (RR) related to cold was considerably attenuated in most of the studied subgroups during the study period, whereas an increase in the RR associated with heat was seen in the overall population, in women, in the age category 90+ years and with respect to respiratory causes. Moreover, underlying sex- and age-dependent inequalities experienced substantial growth. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest ongoing adaptation to cold temperatures. Mal/adaptation to hot temperatures occurred unequally among population subgroups and resulted in growing inequalities between the sexes and among age categories.

• Klíčová slova
• Heat, adaptation, climate change, cold, inequalities, mortality, temperature,
• MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mortalita MeSH
• nízká teplota * MeSH
• rizikové faktory MeSH
• senioři nad 80 let MeSH
• teplota MeSH
• vysoká teplota * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• senioři nad 80 let MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• metaanalýza MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Česká republika epidemiologie   MeSH

BACKGROUND: The ongoing increase in the mean global temperature due to human induced climate change, indicates that women and infants will have higher exposure to heat events leading to adverse outcomes. The study investigates the effect of non-optimal ambient temperature on the risk of preterm birth stratified by social position in Nepal. METHOD: This is a space-time-stratified case-crossover design, based on hospital-registered perinatal data between 2017 and 2021 (n = 47,807). A daily count of pregnant women residing in seven heat-prone districts was extracted together with their social status (ethnicity), obstetric complication and gestation of birth. The daily count of events was matched with the daily ambient temperature of their residence using the NOAA spatial temperature recording. Ambient temperature exposure was analysed using conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag non-linear models. FINDINGS: In the general population, with exposure to ambient temperature at the 75th centile (28 °C) the cumulative risk of preterm birth over 28 days was 1·29 times higher (RR, 1·29; 95% CI; 1·09, 1·54) than at median temperature (24.1 °C), and even higher among the socially disadvantaged population. Cumulative risk of preterm birth to cold ambient temperature at the 1st centile was high but not significant. Exposure to ambient temperature at the 90th centile (32·5 °C) had the highest cumulative risk of preterm birth for pregnant women from socially disadvantaged populations (RR 1·81; 95% CI; 1·28, 2·55). The delayed effect after exposure to temperatures above the 75th percentile was more prolonged in the disadvantaged than the advantaged social group. CONCLUSION: Although exposure to cold with certain effect on preterm births, heat (increase in ambient temperature) carries a risk of preterm birth in Nepal, and is more profound among socially disadvantaged populations.

• Klíčová slova
• Nepal, Non-optimal ambient temperature, Preterm birth, Social inequality,
• MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• klinické křížové studie * MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mladý dospělý MeSH
• novorozenec MeSH
• předčasný porod * epidemiologie   MeSH
• těhotenství MeSH
• teplota MeSH
• vysoká teplota škodlivé účinky   MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mladý dospělý MeSH
• novorozenec MeSH
• těhotenství MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Nepál epidemiologie   MeSH