Climate change affects the distribution of many species, including Burgundy and Périgord truffles in central and southern Europe, respectively. The cultivation potential of these high-prized cash crops under future warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Here we perform a literature review to define the ecological requirements for the growth of both truffle species. This information is used to develop niche models, and to estimate their cultivation potential in the Czech Republic under current (2020) and future (2050) climate conditions. The Burgundy truffle is already highly suitable for cultivation on ~ 14% of agricultural land in the Czech Republic (8486 km2), whereas only ~ 8% of the warmest part of southern Moravia are currently characterised by a low suitability for Périgord truffles (6418 km2). Though rising temperatures under RCP8.5 will reduce the highly suitable cultivation areas by 7%, the 250 km2 (3%) expansion under low-emission scenarios will stimulate Burgundy truffles to benefit from future warming. Doubling the moderate and expanding the highly suitable land by 352 km2 in 2050, the overall cultivation potential for Périgord truffles will rise substantially. Our findings suggest that Burgundy and Périgord truffles could become important high-value crops for many regions in central Europe with alkaline soils. Although associated with uncertainty, long-term investments in truffle cultivation could generate a wide range of ecological and economic benefits.

Department of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology Faculty of AgriSciences Mendel University Zemědělská 1 613 00 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Climate Change Impacts On Agroecosystems Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Bělidla 986 4 603 00 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Crop and Forest Science University of Lleida Alcalde Rovira Roure 191 25198 Lleida Spain

Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Palacký University Šlechtitelů 27 78371 Olomouc Czech Republic

Department of Geography Faculty of Science Masaryk University Kotlářská 2 602 00 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Geography University of Cambridge Downing Place Cambridge CB2 3EN UK

Department of Physical Geography Stockholm University 106 91 Stockholm Sweden

Deutsche Trüffelbäume Karl Bücheler Strasse 1 78315 Radolfzell Germany

Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia Crta Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2 25280 Solsona Spain

Institute of Forest Sciences Chair of Forest Growth and Dendroecology University of Freiburg Tennenbacher Straße 4 79106 Freiburg Germany

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL Zürcherstrasse 111 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland

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