Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented globally for systems and taxa with sufficient data. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models. Pursuing both approaches will provide greater insight into biodiversity and ecosystem services projections. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance policy development to meet global sustainability goals.

Bangor University Gwynedd Wales United Kingdom

Columbia University and with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies both New York New York United States

Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czechia and with the Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt Bogotá Colombia

Land and Water CSIRO Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia

North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina United States

United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre Cambridge England United Kingdom

University of Minnesota Saint Paul Minnesota United States

University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia

University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg South Africa and with the Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

University of Tokyo Meguro Tokyo Japan

US Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center in Reston Virginia United States

US Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Boulder Colorado United States

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