The coupled nature of the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling networks is of critical importance for sustainable food systems. Here we use material flow and ecological network analysis methods to map the N-P-coupled cycling network in China and evaluate its resilience. Results show a drop in resilience between 1980 and 2020, with further decreases expected by 2060 across different socio-economic pathways. Under a clean energy scenario with additional N and P demand, the resilience of the N-P-coupled cycling network would suffer considerably, especially in the N layer. China's socio-economic system may also see greater N emissions to the environment, thus disturbing the N cycle and amplifying the conflict between energy and food systems given the scarcity of P. Our findings on scenario-specific synergies and trade-offs can aid the management of N- and P-cycling networks in China by reducing chemical fertilizer use and food waste, for example.

Biology Department Towson University Towson MD USA

Department of Chemical Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing P R China

Department of Environmental Studies Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

Graduate School of Environmental Studies Tohoku University Sendai Japan

Institute for Circular Economy Tsinghua University Beijing P R China

International Institute for Applied System Analysis Laxenburg Austria

Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education School of Ecology Environment and Resources Guangdong University of Technology Guangzhou P R China

Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability Hiroshima University Hiroshima Japan

Research Institute for Humanity and Nature Kyoto Japan

School of Business East China University of Science and Technology Shanghai P R China

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