Following rapid climate change, tundra plant communities are experiencing extensive compositional shifts. A conservation concern is the potential encroachment of boreal species into the tundra ('borealisation'). Tundra borealisation has been sporadically reported, but not systematically quantified. Here, we synthesised data from across 32 study areas, spanning 1137 plots and 287 vascular plant species, resurveyed between 1981 and 2023. We (i) quantified tundra borealisation as the colonisation and increase in abundance of Boreal and Boreal-Tundra species, (ii) assessed biogeographical, climatic and local borealisation drivers and (iii) identified species contributing to borealisation and their associated traits. Half of the plots experienced borealisation, although borealisation rates were not different to random expectation. Borealisation was greater in Eurasia, closer to the treeline, at higher elevations, in warmer and wetter regions, where climate change was limited, and where initial boreal abundance was lower. Boreal coloniser species were generally short-statured, and more often shrubs and graminoids. Boreal species colonised around three times less frequently than Boreal-Tundra species. Hence, our findings indicate that tundra borealisation is mainly driven by the spread of already established boreal-low Arctic tundra species. These plant community composition changes could have cascading impacts on land-atmosphere interactions, trophic dynamics and Indigenous and local livelihoods.

Amsterdam Institute for Life and Environment Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam the Netherlands

Arctic Research Centre Aarhus C Denmark

Biology Department Grand Valley State University Allendale Michigan USA

CREAF Bellaterra Spain

Department of Arctic and Marine Biology; Faculty of Biosciences Fisheries and Economics UiT The Arctic University of Norway Tromsø Norway

Department of Arctic Biology University Centre in Svalbard Longyearbyen Norway

Department of Biodiversity and Nature Tourism Estonian University of Life Sciences Tartu Estonia

Department of Biological Sciences and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research University of Bergen Bergen Norway

Department of Biological Sciences Florida International University Miami Florida USA

Department of Biology Aarhus University Aarhus C Denmark

Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences Marietta College Marietta Ohio USA

Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Sweden

Department of Biology Memorial University St John's Newfoundland Canada

Department of Biology University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark

Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Sweden

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA

Department of Ecoscience Aarhus University Roskilde Denmark

Department of Electrical Engineering Mathematics and Science Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development University of Gävle Gävle Sweden

Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada

Department of Geography University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada

Department of Natural History Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway

Department of Wildlife Fish and Conservation Biology University of California Davis Davis California USA

Dutch Research Council Den Haag the Netherlands

Environmental Science Center Qatar University Doha Qatar

Faculty of Environmental and Forest Sciences Agricultural University of Iceland Reykjavík Iceland

Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management Norwegian University of Life Sciences Ås Norway

Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre Gothenburg Sweden

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA

Institute of Hydrobiology Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic

Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Iceland Reykjavík Iceland

Natural Resources Institute Finland Oulu Finland

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Bergen Norway

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Oslo Norway

Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

School of Biosciences University of Nottingham Nottingham UK

School of Environment Resources and Sustainability University of Waterloo Waterloo Ontario Canada

School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK

Swedish Environmental Research Institute Gothenburg Sweden

USDA Forest Service Research and Development Río Piedras Puerto Rico USA

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