• Klíčová slova
• biogeography, climate sensitivity, density dependence, global warming, plant growth, population ecology, treeline,
• MeSH
• ekosystém MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• teoretické modely MeSH
• teplota * MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH

Assessing species establishment risk is an important task used for informing biosecurity activities aimed at preventing biological invasions. Propagule pressure is a major contributor to the probability of invading species establishment; however, direct assessment of numbers of individuals arriving is virtually never possible. Inspections conducted at borders by biosecurity officials record counts of species (or higher-level taxa) intercepted during inspections, which can be used as proxies for arrival rates. Such data may therefore be useful for predicting species establishments, though some species may establish despite never being intercepted. We present a stochastic process-based model of the arrival-interception-establishment process to predict species establishment risk from interception count data. The model can be used to estimate the probability of establishment, both for species that were intercepted and species that had no interceptions during a given observation period. We fit the stochastic model to data on two insect families, Cerambycidae and Aphididae, that were intercepted and/or established in the United States or New Zealand. We also explore the effects of variation in model parameters and the inclusion of an Allee effect in the establishment probability. Although interception data sets contain much noise due to variation in inspection policy, interception effort and among-species differences in detectability, our study shows that it is possible to use such data for predicting establishments and distinguishing differences in establishment risk profile between taxonomic groups. Our model provides a method for predicting the number of species that have breached border biosecurity, including both species detected during inspections but also "unseen arrivals" that have never been intercepted, but have not yet established a viable population. These estimates could inform prioritization of different taxonomic groups, pathways or identification effort in biosecurity programs.

• Klíčová slova
• Aphididae, Cerambycidae, biosecurity, interception, species establishment, stochastic process,
• MeSH
• brouci * MeSH
• hmyz MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• stochastické procesy MeSH
• zavlečené druhy * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Nový Zéland MeSH

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

• Klíčová slova
• biological invasions, expert survey, globalization, impacts, management, policy, scenarios, uncertainties,
• MeSH
• biodiverzita * MeSH
• ekosystém MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• předpověď MeSH
• zavlečené druhy * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8-9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect's climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system's failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8-9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.

• Klíčová slova
• Dendroecology, European Alps, Insect outbreaks, North Atlantic Oscillation, Population cycles, Zeiraphera diniana or griseana,
• MeSH
• epidemický výskyt choroby MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• modřín * MeSH
• můry * MeSH
• populační dynamika MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

Although research on human-mediated exchanges of species has substantially intensified during the last centuries, we know surprisingly little about temporal dynamics of alien species accumulations across regions and taxa. Using a novel database of 45,813 first records of 16,926 established alien species, we show that the annual rate of first records worldwide has increased during the last 200 years, with 37% of all first records reported most recently (1970-2014). Inter-continental and inter-taxonomic variation can be largely attributed to the diaspora of European settlers in the nineteenth century and to the acceleration in trade in the twentieth century. For all taxonomic groups, the increase in numbers of alien species does not show any sign of saturation and most taxa even show increases in the rate of first records over time. This highlights that past efforts to mitigate invasions have not been effective enough to keep up with increasing globalization.

• MeSH
• časové faktory MeSH
• druhová specificita MeSH
• internacionalita MeSH
• ostrovy MeSH
• počítačová simulace MeSH
• zavlečené druhy * MeSH
• zeměpis MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• ostrovy MeSH

Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees are highly nonlinear, due to complex aggregation behaviors exhibited by beetles attacking trees. Models have a role to play in helping unravel the effects of variable tree resistance and beetle aggregation on bark beetle outbreaks. In this article we develop a new mathematical model for bark beetle outbreaks using an analogy with epidemiological models. Because the model operates on several distinct time scales, singular perturbation methods are used to simplify the model. The result is a dynamical system that tracks populations of uninfested and infested trees. A limiting case of the model is a discontinuous function of state variables, leading to solutions in the Filippov sense. The model assumes an extensive seed-bank so that tree recruitment is possible even if trees go extinct. Two scenarios are considered for immigration of new beetles. The first is a single tree stand with beetles immigrating from outside while the second considers two forest stands with beetle dispersal between them. For the seed-bank driven recruitment rate, when beetle immigration is low, the forest stand recovers to a beetle-free state. At high beetle immigration rates beetle populations approach an endemic equilibrium state. At intermediate immigration rates, the model predicts bistability as the forest can be in either of the two equilibrium states: a healthy forest, or a forest with an endemic beetle population. The model bistability leads to hysteresis. Interactions between two stands show how a less resistant stand of trees may provide an initial toe-hold for the invasion, which later leads to a regional beetle outbreak in the resistant stand.

• Klíčová slova
• Bark beetle, Bistability, Dendroctonus ponderosae, Dispersal, Filippov solution, Hysteresis, Population dynamics, SI models, Stability,
• MeSH
• biologické modely * MeSH
• brouci fyziologie   MeSH
• epidemický výskyt choroby * MeSH
• kůra rostlin parazitologie   MeSH
• nemoci rostlin parazitologie   MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH

Direct effects of climate change on animal physiology, and indirect impacts from disruption of seasonal synchrony and breakdown of trophic interactions are particularly severe in Arctic and Alpine ecosystems. Unravelling biotic from abiotic drivers, however, remains challenging because high-resolution animal population data are often limited in space and time. Here, we show that variation in annual horn growth (an indirect proxy for individual performance) of 8043 male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) over the past four decades is well synchronised among eight disjunct colonies in the eastern Swiss Alps. Elevated March to May temperatures, causing premature melting of Alpine snowcover, earlier plant phenology and subsequent improvement of ibex food resources, fuelled annual horn growth. These results reveal dependency of local trophic interactions on large-scale climate dynamics, and provide evidence that declining herbivore performance is not a universal response to global warming even for high-altitude populations that are also harvested.

• Klíčová slova
• Alpine ungulates, European Alps, body size, climate change, ecological response, horn growth, phenotypic plasticity, plant phenology, spatial synchrony, trophic interaction,
• MeSH
• klimatické změny * MeSH
• kozy růst a vývoj   MeSH
• lineární modely MeSH
• roční období * MeSH
• rohy růst a vývoj   MeSH
• teplota * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• dopisy MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Švýcarsko MeSH