Most cited article - PubMed ID 16567128
Risk assessment and prediction of Ixodes ricinus tick questing activity and human tick-borne encephalitis infection in space and time in the Czech Republic
The aim of this review is to follow the history of studies on endemiv arboviruses and the diseases they cause which were detected in the Czech lands (Bohemia, Moravia and Silesia (i.e., the Czech Republic)). The viruses involve tick-borne encephalitis, West Nile and Usutu flaviviruses; the Sindbis alphavirus; Ťahyňa, Batai, Lednice and Sedlec bunyaviruses; the Uukuniemi phlebovirus; and the Tribeč orbivirus. Arboviruses temporarily imported from abroad to the Czech Republic have been omitted. This brief historical review includes a bibliography of all relevant papers.
- Keywords
- arthropods, birds, mammals, mosquitoes, ticks,
- MeSH
- Arbovirus Infections history MeSH
- Arboviruses physiology MeSH
- History, 20th Century MeSH
- History, 21st Century MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Check Tag
- History, 20th Century MeSH
- History, 21st Century MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Historical Article MeSH
- Review MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic epidemiology MeSH
In Europe, Lyme borreliosis (LB) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) are the two vector-borne diseases with the largest impact on human health. Based on data on the density of host-seeking Ixodes ricinus ticks and pathogen prevalence and using a variety of environmental data, we have created an acarological risk model for a region where both diseases are endemic (Czech Republic-South Bohemia and Germany-Lower Bavaria, Upper Palatinate). The data on tick density were acquired by flagging 50 sampling sites three times in a single season. Prevalence of the causative agents of LB and TBE was determined. Data on environmental variables (e.g., altitude, vegetation cover, NDVI, land surface temperature) were obtained from various sources and processed using geographical information systems. Generalized linear models were used to estimate tick density, probability of tick infection, and density of infected ticks for the whole area. A significantly higher incidence of human TBE cases was recorded in South Bohemia compared to Bavarian regions, which correlated with a lower tick density in Bavaria. However, the differences in pathogen prevalence rates were not significant. The model outputs were made available to the public in the form of risk maps, indicating the distribution of tick-borne disease risk in space.
- Keywords
- Ixodes ricinus, Lyme borreliosis, geographical information systems, risk modeling, tick, tick-borne encephalitis,
- MeSH
- Geographic Information Systems MeSH
- Incidence MeSH
- Ixodes microbiology MeSH
- Encephalitis, Tick-Borne epidemiology MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Lyme Disease epidemiology MeSH
- Altitude MeSH
- Probability MeSH
- Prevalence MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Temperature MeSH
- Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic epidemiology MeSH
- Europe MeSH
- Germany epidemiology MeSH
Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a serious acute neuroinfection of humans caused by a tick-borne flavivirus. The disease is typically seasonal, linked to the host-seeking activity of Ixodes ricinus (predominantly nymphs), the principal European tick vector species. To address the need for accurate risk predictions of contracting TBE, data on 4,044 TBE cases reported in the Czech Republic during 2001-2006 were compared with questing activity of I. ricinus nymphs monitored weekly at a defined location for the same 6-year period. A time shift of 21 days between infected tick bite and recorded disease onset provided the optimal model for comparing the number of cases of TBE with numbers of questing nymphs. Mean annual distribution of TBE cases and tick counts showed a similar bimodal distribution. Significantly, the ratio of TBE cases to questing nymphs was highest in the summer-autumn period even though the number of questing nymphs peaked in the spring-summer period. However, this pattern changed during a period of extreme meteorological events of flooding and abnormally high temperatures, indicating that changes in climate affect the incidence of TBE. Previous studies failed to link human behavior with changes in incidence of TBE but showed extrinsic temperature impacts arbovirus replication. Hence, we hypothesize the apparent discrepancy between peak nymphal tick activity and greatest risk of contracting TBE is due to the effect of temperature on virus replication in the tick vector. Relative proportions of questing nymphs and the numbers of weeks in which they were found were greater in summer-autumn compared with spring-summer at near-ground temperatures >5°C and at standard day and weekly average temperatures of >15°C. Thus, during the summer-autumn period, the virus dose in infected tick bites is likely greater owing to increased virus replication at higher microclimatic temperatures, consequently increasing the relative risk of contracting TBE per summer-autumn tick bite. The data support the use of weather-based forecasts of tick attack risk (based on daytime ambient temperature) supplemented with weekly average temperature (as a proxy for virus replication) to provide much-needed real-time forecasts of TBE risk.
- Keywords
- Ixodes ricinus, TBEV, arbovirus, climate change, seasonality, tick-borne encephalitis,
- MeSH
- Arachnid Vectors physiology virology MeSH
- Incidence MeSH
- Ixodes physiology virology MeSH
- Encephalitis, Tick-Borne epidemiology transmission virology MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Weather MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Temperature MeSH
- Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne genetics isolation & purification physiology MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic epidemiology MeSH
BACKGROUND: Abiotic conditions provide cues that drive tick questing activity. Defining these cues is critical in predicting biting risk, and in forecasting climate change impacts on tick populations. This is particularly important for Ixodes ricinus nymphs, the vector of numerous pathogens affecting humans. METHODS: A 6-year study of the questing activity of I. ricinus was conducted in Central Bohemia, Czech Republic, from 2001 to 2006. Tick numbers were determined by weekly flagging the vegetation in a defined 600 m(2) field site. After capture, ticks were released back to where they were found. Concurrent temperature data and relative humidity were collected in the microhabitat and at a nearby meteorological station. Data were analysed by regression methods. RESULTS: During 208 monitoring visits, a total of 21,623 ticks were recorded. Larvae, nymphs, and adults showed typical bimodal questing activity curves with major spring peaks and minor late summer or autumn peaks (mid-summer for males). Questing activity of nymphs and adults began with ~12 h of daylight and ceased at ~9 h daylight, at limiting temperatures close to freezing (in early spring and late autumn); questing occurred during ~70 % calendar year without cessation in summer. The co-occurrence of larvae and nymphs varied annually, ranging from 31 to 80 % of monitoring visits, and depended on the questing activity of larvae. Near-ground temperature, day length, and relative air humidity were all significant predictors of nymphal activity. For 70 % of records, near-ground temperatures measured in the microhabitat were 4-5 °C lower than those recorded by the nearby meteorological observatory, although they were strongly dependent. Inter-annual differences in seasonal numbers of nymphs reflected extreme weather events. CONCLUSIONS: Weather predictions (particularly for temperature) combined with daylight length, are good predictors of the initiation and cessation of I. ricinus nymph questing activity, and hence of the risk period to humans, in Central Europe. Co-occurrence data for larvae and nymphs support the notion of intrastadial rather than interstadial co-feeding pathogen transmission. Annual questing tick numbers recover quickly from the impact of extreme weather events.
- MeSH
- Time Factors MeSH
- Ixodes physiology MeSH
- Larva physiology MeSH
- Nymph physiology MeSH
- Population Dynamics MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Temperature MeSH
- Humidity MeSH
- Environment * MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Check Tag
- Male MeSH
- Female MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
This article presents major epidemiologic features of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in the Czech Republic, using data of laboratory-confirmed cases since 1970. A total of 17,053 cases of TBE were reported in the Czech Republic (population 10 million) in 1970-2008. The data show several important features. First, the pattern of TBE incidence changed over time. Until the end of the 1970s, TBE was characterized by periods of alternately higher and lower incidence (between 180 and 595 cases per year); the 1980s were a period of low incidence with minimum variability; since the beginning of the 1990 s, there has been a steep rise in incidence, with marked year-to-year variation (e.g., 745 cases were registered in 1995, and a maximum of 1029 cases were registered in 2006). Second, the age distribution of TBE incidence has changed. Until the end of 1990 s, incidence peaked among those 15-19 years of age, with a gradual decline with age. In the 2000s, however, TBE incidence has been rising in those aged 60-64 years, with a sharp decline in those older than 65 years. Third, the seasonal pattern of TBE has changed markedly over time. In the earlier period, incidence had a clear peak in July/August; since the 1990 s, more cases have occurred in earlier and later months of the year. The proportion of cases occurring in April, May, October, and November increased from 9% in the 1970s to 23% in 2000-2008. Fourth, the geographical distribution of TBE also changed over time, with TBE increasingly occurring in the mountainous districts at higher altitudes. These changes in incidence patterns appear to be linked with changes in climatic and meteorological conditions. The link between climate change and TBE incidence is plausible, since TBE is a recreation-related infection associated with outdoor activities, and since climatic changes affect the life cycle of the vector.
- MeSH
- Arachnid Vectors virology MeSH
- Child MeSH
- Adult MeSH
- Incidence MeSH
- Ticks virology MeSH
- Encephalitis, Tick-Borne epidemiology mortality virology MeSH
- Infant MeSH
- Middle Aged MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Adolescent MeSH
- Young Adult MeSH
- Altitude MeSH
- Climate MeSH
- Child, Preschool MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Aged, 80 and over MeSH
- Aged MeSH
- Sex Factors MeSH
- Age Factors MeSH
- Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne physiology MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Check Tag
- Child MeSH
- Adult MeSH
- Infant MeSH
- Middle Aged MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Adolescent MeSH
- Young Adult MeSH
- Male MeSH
- Child, Preschool MeSH
- Aged, 80 and over MeSH
- Aged MeSH
- Female MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic epidemiology MeSH
The objective was to discover whether there any demonstrable relationships exist between the incidence of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases and current meteorological factors and to specify their character. Epidemiological data were extracted from the EPIDAT database (National Institute of Public Health, Prague). Analyzed were a total of 4,613 TBE cases registered in the whole Czech Republic (1994-2001) and 4,637 cases registered in the territory of Bohemia (1994-2004). Meteorological data were from the database of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute in Prague. A linear relationship has been found between TBE incidence and temperature factors in all the years under study. Lagged cross correlation was used (with the lags in time respective to incubation period from infected tick attack to initial TBE symptoms) and close relations were found for daily mean air temperature and lags 6-14 days (with a peak of 9 days). Effects of the current course of the meteorological situation (as well as long-term year-to-year changes) on TBE incidence are, foremost, mediated by the influence of climatic factors on Ixodes ricinus ticks and their host-seeking activity; under certain conditions, also by the effects of momentary weather on human behavior as TBE in the Czech Republic is a recreational disease connected with outdoor activities.
- MeSH
- Incidence MeSH
- Ixodes growth & development MeSH
- Encephalitis, Tick-Borne epidemiology MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Meteorological Concepts * MeSH
- Statistics as Topic MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic epidemiology MeSH