It is acknowledged that climate change exacerbates social inequalities, and women have been reported as more vulnerable to heat than men in many studies in Europe, including the Czech Republic. This study aimed at investigating the associations between daily temperature and mortality in the Czech Republic in the light of a sex and gender perspective, taking into account other factors such as age and marital status. Daily mean temperature and individual mortality data recorded during the five warmest months of the year (from May to September) over the period 1995-2019 were used to fit a quasi-Poisson regression model, which included a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to account for the delayed and non-linear effects of temperature on mortality. The heat-related mortality risks obtained in each population group were expressed in terms of risk at the 99th percentile of summer temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature. Women were found generally more at risk to die because of heat than men, and the difference was larger among people over 85 years old. Risks among married people were lower than risks among single, divorced, and widowed people, while risks in divorced women were significantly higher than in divorced men. This is a novel finding which highlights the potential role of gender inequalities in heat-related mortality. Our study underlines the relevance of including a sex and gender dimension in the analysis of the impacts of heat on the population and advocates the development of gender-based adaptation policies to extreme heat.

• Keywords
• Czech Republic, DLNM, Heat stress, Mortality, Sex and gender inequalities,
• MeSH
• Gender Equity * MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Mortality MeSH
• Aged, 80 and over MeSH
• Temperature MeSH
• Hot Temperature * MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Aged, 80 and over MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH
• Europe MeSH

We compared selected thermal indices in their ability to predict heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during the extraordinary summer 2015. Relatively, novel thermal indices-Universal Thermal Climate Index and Excess Heat Factor (EHF)-were compared with more traditional ones (apparent temperature, simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), and physiologically equivalent temperature). The relationships between thermal indices and all-cause relative mortality deviations from the baseline (excess mortality) were estimated by generalized additive models for the extended summer season (May-September) during 1994-2014. The resulting models were applied to predict excess mortality in 2015 based on observed meteorology, and the mortality estimates by different indices were compared. Although all predictors showed a clear association between thermal conditions and excess mortality, we found important variability in their performance. The EHF formula performed best in estimating the intensity of heat waves and magnitude of heat-impacts on excess mortality on the most extreme days. Afternoon WBGT, on the other hand, was most precise in the selection of heat-alert days during the extended summer season, mainly due to a relatively small number of "false alerts" compared to other predictors. Since the main purpose of heat warning systems is identification of days with an increased risk of heat-related death rather than prediction of exact magnitude of the excess mortality, WBGT seemed to be a slightly favorable predictor for such a system.

• Keywords
• Central Europe, Heat, Heat warning system, Heat-related mortality, Thermal indices,
• MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Heat Stress Disorders mortality   MeSH
• Seasons MeSH
• Models, Theoretical * MeSH
• Cities epidemiology   MeSH
• Wind MeSH
• Humidity MeSH
• Hot Temperature adverse effects   MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Comparative Study MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH
• Cities epidemiology   MeSH

This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country's entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0-64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere.

• Keywords
• Central Europe, excess heat factor, heat-related mortality, heat-wave,
• MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Meteorological Concepts MeSH
• Mortality * trends   MeSH
• Age Factors MeSH
• Hot Temperature adverse effects   MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Comparative Study MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH

The study examines spatial patterns of effects of high temperature extremes on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic at a district level during 1994-2009. Daily baseline mortality for each district was determined using a single location-stratified generalized additive model. Mean relative deviations of mortality from the baseline were calculated on days exceeding the 90th percentile of mean daily temperature in summer, and they were correlated with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and physical-environmental variables for the districts. Groups of districts with similar characteristics were identified according to socioeconomic status and urbanization level in order to provide a more general picture than possible on the district level. We evaluated lagged patterns of excess mortality after hot spell occurrences in: (i) urban areas vs. predominantly rural areas; and (ii) regions with different overall socioeconomic level. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions, altitude, and urbanization generally affect the spatial distribution of districts with the highest excess cardiovascular mortality, while socioeconomic status did not show a significant effect in the analysis across the Czech Republic as a whole. Only within deprived populations, socioeconomic status played a relevant role as well. After taking into account lagged effects of temperature on excess mortality, we found that the effect of hot spells was significant in highly urbanized regions, while most excess deaths in rural districts may be attributed to harvesting effects.

• Keywords
• cardiovascular disease, heat stress, mortality, socioeconomic status, spatial differences,
• MeSH
• Demography MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Cardiovascular Diseases epidemiology   mortality   MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Urban Population statistics & numerical data   MeSH
• Heat Stress Disorders epidemiology   mortality   MeSH
• Seasons MeSH
• Aged, 80 and over MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Socioeconomic Factors MeSH
• Rural Population statistics & numerical data   MeSH
• Hot Temperature adverse effects   MeSH
• Geography MeSH
• Check Tag
• Adult MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Aged, 80 and over MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH

The study examines effects of hot spells on cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality in the population of the Czech Republic, with emphasis on differences between ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CD) and between morbidity and mortality. Daily data on CVD morbidity (hospital admissions) and mortality over 1994-2009 were obtained from national hospitalization and mortality registers and standardized to account for long-term changes as well as seasonal and weekly cycles. Hot spells were defined as periods of at least two consecutive days with average daily air temperature anomalies above the 95% quantile during June to August. Relative deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline were evaluated. Hot spells were associated with excess mortality for all examined cardiovascular causes (CVD, IHD and CD). The increases were more pronounced for CD than IHD mortality in most population groups, mainly in males. In the younger population (0-64 years), however, significant excess mortality was observed for IHD while there was no excess mortality for CD. A short-term displacement effect was found to be much larger for mortality due to CD than IHD. Excess CVD mortality was not accompanied by increases in hospital admissions and below-expected-levels of morbidity prevailed during hot spells, particularly for IHD in the elderly. This suggests that out-of-hospital deaths represent a major part of excess CVD mortality during heat and that for in-hospital excess deaths CVD is a masked comorbid condition rather than the primary diagnosis responsible for hospitalization.

• Keywords
• Cardiovascular disease, Central Europe, Cerebrovascular disease, Hot spells, Ischaemic heart disease, Morbidity, Mortality,
• MeSH
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Hospitalization statistics & numerical data   MeSH
• Cardiovascular Diseases epidemiology   mortality   MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Young Adult MeSH
• Morbidity MeSH
• Infant, Newborn MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Hot Temperature adverse effects   MeSH
• Check Tag
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Young Adult MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Infant, Newborn MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH

Sudden weather changes have long been thought to be associated with negative impacts on human health, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships. We use large 6-h changes in atmospheric pressure as a proxy for sudden weather changes and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analysed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population 1.2 million) over a 16-year period (1994-2009). We found that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant rise in hospital admissions. Increased CVD morbidity was observed neither for pressure drops in summer nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal flow and rapidly moving low-pressure systems with centres over northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting western and central Europe. Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions, however, shows that the links disappear if weather changes are characterised by frontal passages. Sudden pressure drops in winter are associated also with significant excess CVD mortality. As climate models project strengthening of zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of windstorms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the twenty-first century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.

• MeSH
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Hospitalization statistics & numerical data   MeSH
• Cardiovascular Diseases epidemiology   MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Young Adult MeSH
• Infant, Newborn MeSH
• Weather MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Seasons MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Air Pressure * MeSH
• Cities epidemiology   MeSH
• Check Tag
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Young Adult MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Infant, Newborn MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH
• Cities epidemiology   MeSH

Several studies have examined the relationship of high and low air temperatures to cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic. Much less is understood about heat-/cold-related cardiovascular morbidity and possible regional differences. This paper compares the effects of warm and cold days on excess mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the city of Prague and a rural region of southern Bohemia during 1994-2009. Population size and age structure are similar in the two regions. The results are evaluated for selected population groups (men and women). Excess mortality (number of deaths) and morbidity (number of hospital admissions) were determined as differences between observed and expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Generally higher relative excess CVD mortality on warm days than on cold days was identified in both regions. In contrast to mortality, weak excess CVD morbidity was observed for both warm and cold days. Different responses of individual CVDs to heat versus cold stress may be caused by the different nature of each CVD and different physiological processes induced by heat or cold stress. The slight differences between Prague and southern Bohemia in response to heat versus cold stress suggest the possible influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors such as the effects of urban heat island and exposure to air pollution, lifestyle differences, and divergence in population structure, which may result in differing vulnerability of urban versus rural population to temperature extremes.

• MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Hospitalization statistics & numerical data   MeSH
• Cardiovascular Diseases epidemiology   mortality   MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Urban Population statistics & numerical data   MeSH
• Morbidity MeSH
• Cold Temperature MeSH
• Rural Population statistics & numerical data   MeSH
• Hot Temperature MeSH
• Check Tag
• Adult MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH

BACKGROUND: Many studies have reported associations between temperature extremes and cardiovascular mortality but little has been understood about differences in the effects on acute and chronic diseases. The present study examines hot and cold spell effects on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the Czech Republic during 1994-2009, with emphasis upon differences in the effects on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and chronic IHD. METHODS: We use analogous definitions for hot and cold spells based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies, thus allowing for comparison of results for summer hot spells and winter cold spells. Daily mortality data were standardised to account for the long-term trend and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Periods when the data were affected by epidemics of influenza and other acute respiratory infections were removed from the analysis. RESULTS: Both hot and cold spells were associated with excess IHD mortality. For hot spells, chronic IHD was responsible for most IHD excess deaths in both male and female populations, and the impacts were much more pronounced in the 65+ years age group. The excess mortality from AMI was much lower compared to chronic IHD mortality during hot spells. For cold spells, by contrast, the relative excess IHD mortality was most pronounced in the younger age group (0-64 years), and we found different pattern for chronic IHD and AMI, with larger effects on AMI. CONCLUSIONS: The findings show that while excess deaths due to IHD during hot spells are mainly of persons with chronic diseases whose health had already been compromised, cardiovascular changes induced by cold stress may result in deaths from acute coronary events rather than chronic IHD, and this effect is important also in the younger population. This suggests that the most vulnerable population groups as well as the most affected cardiovascular diseases differ between hot and cold spells, which needs to be taken into account when designing and implementing preventive actions.

• MeSH
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Myocardial Infarction mortality   MeSH
• Myocardial Ischemia mortality   MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Cold Temperature MeSH
• Infant, Newborn MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Risk Factors MeSH
• Seasons MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Age Factors MeSH
• Hot Temperature MeSH
• Check Tag
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Infant, Newborn MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH

The study examines the relationship between sudden changes in weather conditions in summer, represented by (1) sudden air temperature changes, (2) sudden atmospheric pressure changes, and (3) passages of strong atmospheric fronts; and variations in daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic. The events are selected from data covering 1986-2005 and compared with the database of daily excess all-cause mortality for the whole population and persons aged 70 years and above. Relative deviations of mortality, i.e., ratios of the excess mortality to the expected number of deaths, were averaged over the selected events for days D-2 (2 days before a change) up to D+7 (7 days after), and their statistical significance was tested by means of the Monte Carlo method. We find that the periods around weather changes are associated with pronounced patterns in mortality: a significant increase in mortality is found after large temperature increases and on days of large pressure drops; a decrease in mortality (partly due to a harvesting effect) occurs after large temperature drops, pressure increases, and passages of strong cold fronts. The relationship to variations in excess mortality is better expressed for sudden air temperature/pressure changes than for passages of atmospheric fronts. The mortality effects are usually more pronounced in the age group 70 years and above. The impacts associated with large negative changes of pressure are statistically independent of the effects of temperature; the corresponding dummy variable is found to be a significant predictor in the ARIMA model for relative deviations of mortality. This suggests that sudden weather changes should be tested also in time series models for predicting excess mortality as they may enhance their performance.

• MeSH
• Time Factors MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Monte Carlo Method MeSH
• Survival Rate MeSH
• Mortality * MeSH
• Altitude MeSH
• Cold Temperature MeSH
• Weather * MeSH
• Seasons MeSH
• Air Pressure MeSH
• Geography MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH

BACKGROUND: The association between cardiovascular mortality and winter cold spells was evaluated in the population of the Czech Republic over 21-yr period 1986-2006. No comprehensive study on cold-related mortality in central Europe has been carried out despite the fact that cold air invasions are more frequent and severe in this region than in western and southern Europe. METHODS: Cold spells were defined as periods of days on which air temperature does not exceed -3.5 degrees C. Days on which mortality was affected by epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections were identified and omitted from the analysis. Excess cardiovascular mortality was determined after the long-term changes and the seasonal cycle in mortality had been removed. Excess mortality during and after cold spells was examined in individual age groups and genders. RESULTS: Cold spells were associated with positive mean excess cardiovascular mortality in all age groups (25-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years) and in both men and women. The relative mortality effects were most pronounced and most direct in middle-aged men (25-59 years), which contrasts with majority of studies on cold-related mortality in other regions. The estimated excess mortality during the severe cold spells in January 1987 (+274 cardiovascular deaths) is comparable to that attributed to the most severe heat wave in this region in 1994. CONCLUSION: The results show that cold stress has a considerable impact on mortality in central Europe, representing a public health threat of an importance similar to heat waves. The elevated mortality risks in men aged 25-59 years may be related to occupational exposure of large numbers of men working outdoors in winter. Early warnings and preventive measures based on weather forecast and targeted on the susceptible parts of the population may help mitigate the effects of cold spells and save lives.

• MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Risk Assessment MeSH
• Confidence Intervals MeSH
• Cardiovascular Diseases diagnosis   mortality   MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Meteorological Concepts * MeSH
• Multivariate Analysis MeSH
• Cold Temperature adverse effects   MeSH
• Poisson Distribution MeSH
• Probability MeSH
• Cause of Death * MeSH
• Seasons MeSH
• Sex Distribution MeSH
• Aged, 80 and over MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Population Surveillance MeSH
• Age Distribution MeSH
• Check Tag
• Adult MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Aged, 80 and over MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH