PURPOSE: To test the effect of race/ethnicity on Social Security Administration (SSA) life tables' life expectancy (LE) predictions in localized prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with either radical prostatectomy (RP) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). We hypothesized that LE will be affected by race/ethnicity. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We relied on the 2004-2006 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to identify D'Amico intermediate- and high-risk PCa patients treated with either RP or EBRT. SSA life tables were used to compute 10-year LE predictions and were compared to OS. Stratification was performed according to treatment type (RP/EBRT) and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian). RESULTS: Of 55,383 assessable patients, 40,490 were non-Hispanic White (RP 49.3% vs. EBRT 50.7%), 7194 non-Hispanic Black (RP 41.3% vs. EBRT 50.7%), 4716 Hispanic/Latino (RP 51.0% vs. EBRT 49.0%) and 2983 were Asian (RP 41.6% vs. EBRT 58.4%). In both RP and EBRT patients, OS exceeded life tables' LE predictions, except for non-Hispanic Blacks. However, in RP patients, the magnitude of the difference was greater than in EBRT. Moreover, in RP patients, OS of non-Hispanic Blacks virtually perfectly followed predicted LE. Conversely, in EBRT patients, the OS of non-Hispanic Black patients was worse than predicted LE. CONCLUSIONS: When comparing SEER-derived observed OS with SSA life table-derived predicted life expectancy, we recorded a survival disadvantage in non-Hispanic Black RP and EBRT patients, which was not the case in the three other races/ethnicities (non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanic/Latinos, and Asians). This discrepancy should ideally be confirmed within different registries, countries, and tumor entities. Furthermore, the source of these discrepant survival outcomes should be investigated and addressed by health care politics.

• Klíčová slova
• Life expectancy prediction, Life table, Localized prostate cancer, SEER, Social Security Administration,
• MeSH
• etnicita MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• naděje dožití MeSH
• nádory prostaty * terapie   patologie   MeSH
• tabulky života MeSH
• Úřad Spojených států pro sociální zabezpečení * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Spojené státy americké epidemiologie   MeSH

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the magnitude of differences between observed overall survival and respective, age-adjusted Social Security Administration life tables-derived life expectancy in Caucasian, African American, Hispanic/Latino and Asian metastatic prostate cancer patients. Furthermore, to test for differences in cancer-specific mortality and other-cause mortality according to race/ethnicity. METHODS: We relied on the 2004-2006 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database to identify Caucasian, African American, Hispanic/Latino and Asian metastatic prostate cancer patients. Social Security Administration life tables were used to compute 10-year life expectancy for comparisons with observed overall survival. Poisson regression plots showed cancer-specific mortality relative to other-cause mortality for each race/ethnicity. RESULTS: A total of 2574 (64.2%) patients were Caucasian, 753 (18.8%) were African American, 453 (11.3%) were Hispanic/Latino and 227 (5.7%) were Asian, respectively. The median age at diagnosis was 72 years in Caucasian patients, 68 years in African American patients, 70 years in Hispanic/Latino patients and 72 years in Asian patients. Observed overall survival rates were always lower compared with respective predicted life expectancy. The magnitude of the difference between observed overall survival and predicted life expectancy at 10 years was highest in African American patients (-52.2%), followed by Caucasian patients (-48.3%), Hispanic/Latino patients (-46.1%) and Asian patients (-37.4%). African American patients showed the highest cancer-specific mortality rates (71.1%) and second-highest other-cause mortality rates (17.4% vs highest 18.4% in Caucasian patients), despite having the youngest age at diagnosis. Asian patients showed the lowest cancer-specific mortality rates (65.5%, P < 0.0001) and lowest other-cause mortality rates (13.3%, P = 0.04), despite having the oldest age at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Despite having the youngest age at diagnosis, African American patients show the least favorable survival profile in metastatic prostate cancer. Conversely, Asian patients show the most favorable survival profile in metastatic prostate cancer, despite having the oldest age at diagnosis.

• Klíčová slova
• Epidemiology and End Results, Social Security Administration, Surveillance, life expectancy, life table, metastatic prostate cancer,
• MeSH
• běloši MeSH
• černoši nebo Afroameričané MeSH
• etnicita * MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• naděje dožití MeSH
• nádory prostaty * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy (LE) is an important consideration in the clinical decision-making for T1aN0M0 renal cell cancer (RCC) patients. OBJECTIVE: To test the effect of race/ethnicity (Caucasian, African American, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian) on LE predictions from Social Security Administration (SSA) life tables in male and female T1aN0M0 RCC patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We relied on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. INTERVENTION: Radical nephrectomy (RN) and partial nephrectomy (PN). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Five-year and 10-yr observed overall survival (OS) of pT1aN0M0 RCC patients treated between 2004 and 2006 were compared with the LE predicted from SSA life tables. We repeated the comparison in a more contemporary cohort (2009-2011), with 5-yr follow-up and higher PN rates. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: In the 2004-2006 cohort, PN rate was 40.7%. OS followed the predicted LE in Caucasians, Hispanics/Latinos, and Asians, but not in African Americans, in whom 5-yr OS rates were 5.0% (male) and 8.7% (female) and 10-yr rates were 4.2% (male) and 11.1% (female) lower than predicted. In the 2009-2011 cohort, PN rate was 59.4%. Same observations were made for OS versus predicted LE in Caucasians, Hispanics/Latinos, and Asians. In African Americans, 5-yr OS rates were 1.5% (male) and 4.9% (female) lower than predicted. CONCLUSIONS: In RN- or PN-treated pT1aN0M0 RCC patients, LE predictions closely approximated OS of Caucasians, Hispanics/Latinos, and Asians. In African-American patients, SSA life tables overestimated LE, more in females than in males. The limitations of our study are its retrospective nature, its validity for US patients only, and the under-representation of racial/ethnic minorities. PATIENT SUMMARY: Social Security Administration life tables can be used to estimate long-term life expectancy in patients who are surgically treated for renal cancer (≤4 cm). However, while for Caucasians, Hispanics/Latinos, and Asians, the prediction performs well, life expectancy of African Americans is generally overestimated by life table predictions. TAKE HOME MESSAGE: In the clinical decision-making process for T1aN0M0 renal cell cancer patients eligible for radical or partial nephrectomy, the important influence of patient sex and race/ethnicity on life expectancy should be taken into account, when using Social Security Administration life tables.

• Klíčová slova
• Life expectancy *, Life table *, Small renal mass *, Social Security Administration *, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results *, T1a renal cell cancer *,
• MeSH
• etnicita MeSH
• karcinom z renálních buněk * etnologie   patologie   chirurgie   MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• naděje dožití etnologie   MeSH
• nádory ledvin * etnologie   patologie   chirurgie   MeSH
• nefrektomie metody   MeSH
• retrospektivní studie MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

PURPOSE: to compare observed overall survival vs age-adjusted lifetable (LT) derived life expectancy (LE) in metastatic urothelial bladder cancer (MBCa) patients according to race/ethnicity. METHODS: We identified Caucasian, African American, Hispanic/Latino and Asian metastatic urothelial bladder cancer patients from 2004 to 2011 within the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. Social Security Administration tables were used to compute 5 year LE. LT-derived LE was compared to observed overall survival OS. Additionally, we relied on Poisson regression plots to display cancer-specific mortality (CSM) relative to other-cause mortality (OCM) for each race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Overall, 2286 MBCa patients were identified. Of those, 1800 (79%) were Caucasian vs 212 (9.3%) African American vs 189 (8.3%) Hispanic/Latino vs 85 (3.7%) Asians. The median age at diagnosis was 71 years for Asians vs 70 for Caucasians vs 67 for Hispanic/Latinos vs 67 for African Americans. African Americans showed the biggest difference between observed OS and LT-predicted LE at five years (- 83.8%), followed by Hispanic/Latinos (- 81%), Caucasians (- 77%) and Asian patients (- 69%). In Poisson regression plots, Hispanic/Latinos displayed the highest cancer-specific mortality rate (88%), while African/Americans showed the highest other cause mortality rate (12%). Conversely, Asian patients displayed the lowest CSM rate (83%) and second lowest OCM rate (7%). CONCLUSIONS: African Americans showed the least favorable survival profile in MBCa, despite being youngest at diagnosis. Contrarily, Asians displayed the best survival profile in MBCa, despite being oldest at diagnosis.

• Klíčová slova
• Life expectancy, Life table, Metastatic bladder cancer, SEER, Social security administration, Surveillance,
• MeSH
• běloši MeSH
• černoši nebo Afroameričané MeSH
• etnicita MeSH
• karcinom z přechodných buněk * MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• naděje dožití MeSH
• nádory močového měchýře * MeSH
• program SEER MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. METHODS: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. FINDINGS: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9-29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76-6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2-26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1-32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8-32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1-24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8-74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9-80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90-2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1-79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5-83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675-808) and 141 million (131-154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6-79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3-82·9) among females. INTERPRETATION: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

• MeSH
• celosvětové zdraví statistika a číselné údaje   MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• globální zátěž nemocemi * MeSH
• kouření * epidemiologie   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mladiství MeSH
• mladý dospělý MeSH
• naděje dožití * trendy   MeSH
• předpověď * MeSH
• prevalence MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mladiství MeSH
• mladý dospělý MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

The aim of the paper is to describe asystem dynamics model applied on aprediction of the number of patients with Alzheimers disease in the EU in the future and related financial impacts. Dementia resulting from Alzheimers disease is the most widely spread type of dementia and is highly connected with the age of the person - the patient. Most people are diagnosed with Alzheimers disease when they are older than 64. The ageing of population will be an ongoing problem in the next few decades due to alow birth rate and increasing life expectancy. This is areason to focus on prediction models of Alzheimers disease and its impact on economy. The paper presents adynamic modelling approach of system dynamics. The created model of the EU population and patients with AD is expanded by afinancial submodel at the end. This submodel estimates the cost on patients from three available cost studies.Key words: systém dynamic Alzhimers disease population ageing.

• MeSH
• Alzheimerova nemoc etiologie   MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• naděje dožití MeSH
• stárnutí * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

AIMS: The 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals. METHODS AND RESULTS: The updated LIFE-CVD (i.e. LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687 135 individuals without established CVD, 30 939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1 657 707 individuals (61 311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the Netherlands (Extramural LUMC Academic Network). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example, a 50-year-old smoking woman with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low-risk region vs. 1.6 years in the very high-risk region from lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low-risk region to 4.8 years in the very high-risk region. CONCLUSION: By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines.

The study introduces LIFE-CVD2, a new tool that helps predict the risk of heart disease over a person’s lifetime, and highlights how where you live in Europe can affect this risk.Using health information from over 687 000 people, LIFE-CVD2 looks at things like blood pressure and whether someone smokes to figure out their chance of having heart problems later in life. Health information from another 1.6 million people in seven different European countries was used to show that it did a good job of predicting who might develop heart disease.Knowing your heart disease risk over your whole life helps doctors give you the best advice to keep your heart healthy. Let us say there is a 50-year-old woman who smokes and has a bit high blood pressure. Right now, she might not look like she is in danger. But with the LIFE-CVD2 tool, doctors can show her how making changes today, like lowering her blood pressure or stopping smoking, could mean many more years without heart problems. These healthy changes can make a big difference over many years.

• Klíčová slova
• Cardiovascular disease, Lifetime, Prevention, Primary prevention, Risk prediction,
• MeSH
• časové faktory MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• hodnocení rizik MeSH
• kardiovaskulární nemoci * prevence a kontrola   epidemiologie   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• metody pro podporu rozhodování MeSH
• prognóza MeSH
• rizikové faktory kardiovaskulárních chorob * MeSH
• rizikové faktory MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• multicentrická studie MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Evropa epidemiologie   MeSH

Life span and aging are substantially modified by natural selection. Across species, higher extrinsic (environmentally related) mortality (and hence shorter life expectancy) selects for the evolution of more rapid aging. However, among populations within species, high extrinsic mortality can lead to extended life span and slower aging as a consequence of condition-dependent survival. Using within-species contrasts of eight natural populations of Nothobranchius fishes in common garden experiments, we demonstrate that populations originating from dry regions (with short life expectancy) had shorter intrinsic life spans and a greater increase in mortality with age, more pronounced cellular and physiological deterioration (oxidative damage, tumor load), and a faster decline in fertility than populations from wetter regions. This parallel intraspecific divergence in life span and aging was not associated with divergence in early life history (rapid growth, maturation) or pace-of-life syndrome (high metabolic rates, active behavior). Variability across four study species suggests that a combination of different aging and life-history traits conformed with or contradicted the predictions for each species. These findings demonstrate that variation in life span and functional decline among natural populations are linked, genetically underpinned, and can evolve relatively rapidly.

• Klíčová slova
• Intraspecific variation *, life span *, neoplasia *, pace-of-life syndrome *, parallel evolution *, reproductive senescence *,
• MeSH
• biologická evoluce * MeSH
• Cyprinodontiformes genetika   fyziologie   MeSH
• dlouhověkost MeSH
• podnebí MeSH
• selekce (genetika) * MeSH
• stárnutí * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• zvláštnosti životní historie * MeSH
• Check Tag
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH

BACKGROUND: Increasing life expectancy has made understanding the mechanisms underlying late-life health and function more important. We set out to investigate whether trajectories of change in psychosocial working conditions are associated with late-life physical function. METHODS: Two Swedish surveys, linked at the individual level, were used (n = 803). A psychosocial job exposure matrix was used to measure psychosocial working conditions during people's first occupation, as well as their occupation every five years thereafter until baseline in 1991. Physical function was measured in 2014. Random effects growth curve models were used to calculate intraindividual trajectories of working conditions. Predictors of physical function were assessed with ordered logistic regression. RESULTS: A more active job at baseline was associated with increased odds of late-life physical function (OR 1.15, CI 1.01-1.32). Higher baseline job strain was associated with decreased odds of late-life physical function (OR 0.75, CI 0.59-0.96). A high initial level followed by an upward trajectory of job strain throughout working life was associated with decreased odds of late-life physical function (OR 0.32, CI 0.17-0.58). CONCLUSIONS: Promoting a healthier workplace by reducing chronic stress and inducing intellectual stimulation, control, and personal growth may contribute to better late-life physical function.

• Klíčová slova
• Cohort, Job control, Life course, Mobility limitations, Sweden, Work-related stress,
• MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• následné studie MeSH
• práce psychologie   MeSH
• pracovní stres epidemiologie   MeSH
• průzkumy a dotazníky MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• tělesná a funkční výkonnost * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Švédsko epidemiologie   MeSH

The life expectancy of men varies at present in the posttotalitarian central and eastern European countries round 67 years; on the territory of the former USSR it is cca 64 years, in western and northern Europe 72-75 years. Linear extrapolation of these data to 2000 indicates that at the beginning of the next century the life expectancy of men in western Europe will vary round 76 years, while in the posttotalitarian countries it will remain at the same low level. In western Europe there is a steady decline of early deaths of men due to cardiovascular diseases (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases), diseases of the respiratory, digestive, nervous, urogenital system. The mortality caused by neoplasms, however, remains at a constant level. This is the reason why after 2000 the structure of mortality will change substantially: the cause of premature death of every other man in western Europe will be neoplasms. In the posttotalitarian part of Europe since 1970 early deaths of men due to cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms (mainly lung cancer), diseases of the digestive and nervous system and cirrhosis of the liver are rising steadily. It is probable that in this part of Europe also after 2000 the main cause of death will be cardiovascular and neoplastic diseases which together will account for 60-70% of early deaths of men and for their short life expectancy.

• MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mortalita * trendy   MeSH
• naděje dožití * trendy   MeSH
• předpověď MeSH
• příčina smrti trendy   MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• anglický abstrakt MeSH
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Evropa MeSH