The Mongol invasion of Eastern Europe, and especially its sudden withdrawal from Hungary in 1242 CE, has generated much speculation and an array of controversial theories. None of them, however, considered multifaceted environmental drivers and the coupled analysis of historical reports and natural archives. Here we investigate annually resolved, absolutely dated and spatially explicit paleoclimatic evidence between 1230 and 1250 CE. Documentary sources and tree-ring chronologies reveal warm and dry summers from 1238-1241, followed by cold and wet conditions in early-1242. Marshy terrain across the Hungarian plain most likely reduced pastureland and decreased mobility, as well as the military effectiveness of the Mongol cavalry, while despoliation and depopulation ostensibly contributed to widespread famine. These circumstances arguably contributed to the determination of the Mongols to abandon Hungary and return to Russia. While overcoming deterministic and reductionist arguments, our 'environmental hypothesis' demonstrates the importance of minor climatic fluctuations on major historical events.

Global Change Research Centre AS CR Zemedelska 1 613 00 Brno Czech Republic

Institute for Advanced Study School of Historical Studies 1 Einstein Dr Princeton NJ 08540 USA

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research Falkenplatz 16 3012 Bern Switzerland

Princeton University Department of East Asian Studies Princeton NJ 08540 USA

Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Zürcherstrasse 111 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland

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