The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux Libreville Gabon

Agteca Santa Cruz Bolivia

AMAP Universite de Montpellier IRD CNRS CIRAD INRAE Montpellier France

Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Stirling Stirling UK

Bioversity International Yaoundé Cameroon

Botany Department University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria

Bureau Waardenburg Culemborg Netherlands

Busbridge Lane Godalming Surrey UK

Carboforexpert Geneva Switzerland

Carrera de Ingeniería Forestal Universidad Tecnica del Norte Ibarra Ecuador

Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Millbrook NY USA

cE3c Centre for Ecology Evolution and Environmental Changes Azorean Biodiversity Group Universidade dos Açores Angra do Heroísmo Azores Portugal

Center for Tropical Forest Science Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Panama Panama

Centre de Formation et de Recherche en Conservation Forestiere Epulu Democratic Republic of Congo

Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname Paramaribo Suriname

Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science and College of Marine and Environmental Sciences James Cook University Douglas QLD Australia

Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Natureza Universidade Federal do Acre Rio Branco AC Brazil

Centro de Conservacion Investigacion y Manejo de Areas Naturales CIMA Cordillera Azul Lima Peru

Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo SP Brazil

Centro de Investigación y Promoción del Campesinado La Paz Bolivia

Centro Multidisciplinar Universidade Federal do Acre Cruzeiro do Sul AC Brazil

Cirad UMR EcoFoG Kourou French Guiana

CIRAD UPR Forêts et Sociétés Yamoussoukro Côte d'Ivoire

Congo Programme Wildlife Conservation Society Brazzavile Republic of Congo

Coordenação da Biodiversidade Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Mauaus Brazil

CSIRO Land and Water Australia

Data for Sustainability Axel Netherlands

Departamento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Madrid Spain

Departamento de Biologia Universidade Federal do Amazonas Manaus Brazil

Département Hommes Natures Sociétés Muséum National d'Histoire Naturel Paris France

Department of Anthropology The University of Texas at Austin Austin TX USA

Department of Biology Boston University Boston MA USA

Department of Botany Palacký University in Olomouc Olomouc Czech Republic

Department of Earth Sciences University of Hong Kong Pok Ful Lam Hong Kong Special Administrative Region China

Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USA

Department of Environment and Geography University of York York UK

Department of Environment Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology Ghent University Ghent Belgium

Department of Environment Laboratory of Wood Technology Ghent University Ghent Belgium

Department of Forest Botany Dendrology and Geobiocoenology Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Department of Geography and The Environment University of Texas at Austin Austin TX USA

Department of Geography National University of Singapore Singapore

Department of Geography University College London London UK

Department of Natural Sciences Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK

Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology Harvard University Cambridge MA USA

Department of Plant and Soil Science School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK

Department of Plant Biology Faculty of Sciences University of Yaounde 1 Yaoundé Cameroon

Department of Plant Sciences University of Cambridge Cambridge UK

Dirección de la Carrera de Biología Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno Santa Cruz Bolivia

Division of Vertebrate Zoology Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History New Haven CT USA

DR Congo Programme Wildlife Conservation Society Kisangani Democratic Republic of Congo

Embrapa Amazônia Oriental Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation Brasília Brazil

Embrapa Genetic Resources and Biotechnology Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation Brasília Brazil

Embrapa Roraima Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation Brasília Brazil

Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford Oxford UK

Environmental Science and Policy George Mason University Fairfax VA USA

Escuela de Ciencias Agrícolas Pecuarias y del Medio Ambiente National Open University and Distance Bogotá Colombia

Escuela de Ciencias Forestales Unidad Académica del Trópico Universidad Mayor de San Simón Sacta Bolivia

Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias Biológicas e Sociais Aplicadas Universidad do Estado de Mato Grosso Nova Xavantina MT Brazil

Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana Iquitos Peru

Facultad de Ingeniería Ambiental Universidad Estatal Amazónica Puyo Pastaza Ecuador

Faculté de Gestion de Ressources Naturelles Renouvelables Université de Kisangani Kisangani Democratic Republic of Congo

Faculty of Environmental Earth Science Hokkaido University Sapporo Japan

Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management Norwegian University of Life Sciences Ås Norway

Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada

Faculty of Forestry University of Toronto Toronto Canada

Faculty of Science Department of Botany and Plant Physiology University of Buea Buea Cameroon

Faculty of Science Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Palacký University Olomouc Olomouc Czech Republic

Faculty of Science Universiti Brunei Darussalam Brunei

Flamingo Land Ltd North Yorkshire UK

Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group Wageningen University Wageningen Netherlands

Forest Management Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname Paramaribo Suriname

Forest Research Centre Sabah Forestry Department Sepilok Malaysia

Forest Resources Management Gembloux Agro Bio Tech University of Liège Liège Belgium

Forestry Research Institute of Ghana Kumasi Ghana

Gembloux Agro Bio Tech University of Liège Liège Belgium

Geography College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK

Graduate School of Agriculture Kyoto University Kyoto Japan

Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment London UK

Grupo de Ecosistemas Tropicales y Cambio Global Universidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam Tena Ecuador

Guyana Forestry Commission Georgetown Guyana

Herbario Alfredo Paredes Universidad Central del Ecuador Quito Ecuador

INRAE UMR EcoFoG CNRS CIRAD AgroParisTech Université des Antilles Université de Guyane 97310 Kourou French Guiana

Institure of Integrative Biology ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland

Institut de Recherche en Ecologie Tropicale Libreville Gabon

Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët Boigny INP HB Yamoussoukro Côte d'Ivoire

Institute for Conservation Research San Diego Zoo San Diego CA USA

Institute of Biological Sciences Universidade Federal do Pará Belém PA Brazil

Institute of Biology University of Campinas Campinas SP Brazil

Institute of Botany Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

Institute of Research for Forestry Development Universidad de los Andes Mérida Venezuela

Instituto de Biodiversidade e Florestas Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará Santarém PA Brazil

Instituto de Ciencias Naturales Universidad Nacional de Colombia Leticia Colombia

Instituto de Geociências Faculdade de Meteorologia Universidade Federal do Para Belém PA Brazil

Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana Iquitos Peru

Instituto Federal do Acre Rio Branco AC Brazil

Instituto IMANI Universidad Nacional de Colombia Leticia Colombia

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Manaus Brazil

Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas Caracas Venezuela

International Center for Tropical Botany Department of Biological Sciences Florida International University Miami FL USA

Inventory and Monitoring Program National Park Service Fredericksburg VA USA

Isotope Bioscience Laboratory Ghent University Ghent Belgium

Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development Georgetown Guyana

Jardín Botánico de Missouri Oxapampa Peru

Keller Science Action Center Field Museum Chicago IL USA

Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique UMR 5174 CNRS Toulouse France

Laboratório de Biogeoquímica Ambiental Wolfgang C Pfeiffer Universidade Federal de Rondônia Porto Velho RO Brazil

Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University Lancaster UK

LIBRe Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

Living with Lakes Centre Laurentian University Sudbury Canada

Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation Kinshasa Democratic Republic of Congo

Mensuration Unit Forestry Commission of Ghana Kumasi Ghana

Ministère de la Forêt de la Mer de l'Environnement Chargé du Plan Climat Libreville Gabon

Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno Santa Cruz Bolivia

Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi Belém PA Brazil

National Institute for Space Research São José dos Campos SP Brazil

National Museum of Natural History Smithsonian Institution Washington DC USA

Naturalis Biodiversity Center Leiden Netherlands

Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USA

PELD Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso Nova Xavantina MT Brazil

Plant Systematics and Ecology Laboratory Higher Teachers' Training College University of Yaoundé 1 Yaoundé Cameroon

Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds Leeds UK

Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar Herbario Universitario Guanare Venezuela

Programa de Pós Graduação Ecologia e Manejo de Recursos Naturais Universidade Federal do Acre Rio Branco AC Brazil

Projeto Dinâmica Biológica de Fragmentos Florestais Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Manaus Brazil

Proyecto Castaña Made de Dios Peru

Public Communications and Outreach Group Parks and Recreation Division Oakland Park FL USA

Rougier Gabon Libreville Gabon

Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh Edinburgh UK

Royal Botanic Gardens Kew Richmond London UK

School of Anthropology and Conservation University of Kent Canterbury UK

School of Biology University of Leeds Leeds UK

School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ USA

School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle OR USA

School of Forestry Beijing Forestry University Beijing China

School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Birmingham Birmingham UK

School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Plymouth Plymouth UK

School of Geography University of Leeds Leeds UK

School of Geography University of Notingham Nottingham UK

School of Geosciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK

School of International Tropical Forestry Universiti Malaysia Sabah Kota Kinabalu Malaysia

School of Life Sciences University of Lincoln Lincoln UK

School of Natural Sciences University of Bangor Bangor UK

Service of Wood Biology Royal Museum for Central Africa Tervuren Belgium

Smithsonian Institution Forest Global Earth Observatory Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Washington DC USA

Smithsonian Institution Washington DC USA

Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Panama Panama

Socioecosistemas y Cambio Climatico Fundacion con Vida Medellín Colombia

Socioecosistemas y Cambio Climatico Fundacion Con Vida Medellín Colombia

Sustainable Landscapes and Food Systems Center for International Forestry Research Bogor Indonesia

Systems Ecology Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam Netherlands

The Landscapes and Livelihoods Group Edinburgh UK

Tropenbos International Wageningen Netherlands

Tropical Forests and People Research Centre University of the Sunshine Coast Sippy Downs QLD Australia

Tropical Peat Research Institute Malaysian Palm Oil Board Selangor Malaysia

Uganda Programme Wildlife Conservation Society Kampala Uganda

UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford UK

UK Centre of Ecology and Hydrology Penicuik UK

UK Research and Innovation Innovate UK London UK

UMR Silva INRAE Nancy France

UNEMAT Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso Nova Xavantina MT Brazil

Universidad Autónoma del Beni José Ballivián Riberalta Bolivia

Universidad de los Andes Merida Colombia

Universidad de San Antonio Abad del Cusco Cusco Peru

Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa Arequipa Peru

Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco Cusco Peru

Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre de Grohmann Tacna Peru

Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso Cáceres MT Brazil

Universidade Estadual de Campinas Campinas SP Brazil

Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia CAPES Belém PA Brazil

University of Liberia Monrovia Liberia

UR Forest and Societies CIRAD Montpellier France

Utrecht University Utrecht Netherlands

Van der Hout Forestry Consulting Rotterdam Netherlands

Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences Velp Netherlands

Wageningen Environmental Research Wageningen Netherlands

Wildlife Conservation Society New York NY USA

Woods Hole Research Center Falmouth MA USA

Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University New Haven CT USA

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