Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.

Center for Theoretical Studies Husova 4 11000 Prague 1 Czech Republic

Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes Na břehu 497 15 19000 Prague 9 Czech Republic

CERGE EI Politických vězňů 7 11121 Prague 1 Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Biology Centre Institute of Entomology Branišovská 31 37005 České Budějovice Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Computer Science Pod Vodárenskou věží 2 18200 Prague 8 Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Information Theory and Automation Pod Vodárenskou věží 4 18200 Prague 8 Czech Republic

Department of Biochemistry Cell and Molecular Biology 3rd Faculty of Medicine Charles University Ruská 87 100 00 Prague 10 Czech Republic

Department of Criminology School of Social Sciences University of Manchester Oxford Rd Manchester UK

Department of Mathematics Centre for Mathematical Biology Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia Branišovská 1760 37005 České Budějovice Czech Republic

Department of Mathematics University of Zagreb Bijenička 30 10000 Zagreb Croatia

New Media Studies Faculty of Arts Charles University Na Příkopě 29 11000 Prague 1 Czech Republic

medRxiv. 2021 Feb 16:2020.11.06.20227330. doi: 10.1101/2020.11.06.20227330. PubMed

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