Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.

Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics School of Public Health Imperial College London London UK

College of Engineering and Computer Science Australian National University Canberra Australia

Department of Engineering Science University of Oxford Oxford UK

Department of Health Policy London School of Economics and Political Science London UK

Department of Statistics University of Oxford Oxford UK

Engineering Department University of Cambridge Cambridge UK

Faculty of Economics University of Cambridge Cambridge UK

Faculty of Public Health and Policy London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK

Future of Humanity Institute University of Oxford Oxford UK

Harvard John A Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University Cambridge MA USA

Independent scholar London UK

Independent scholar Prague Czech Republic

Mathematical Physical and Life Sciences Doctoral Training Centre University of Oxford Oxford UK

Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis School of Public Health Imperial College London London UK

Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning Group Department of Computer Science University of Oxford Oxford UK

Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute San Francisco CA USA

School of Computer Science University of Bristol Bristol UK

School of Medical Sciences University of Manchester Manchester UK

Tufts Initiative for the Forecasting and Modeling of Infectious Diseases Tufts University Boston MA USA

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Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe

Perceived Effectiveness, Restrictiveness, and Compliance with Containment Measures against the Covid-19 Pandemic: An International Comparative Study in 11 Countries

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19