White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a fungal disease caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans that is devastating to Nearctic bat populations but tolerated by Palearctic bats. Temperature is a factor known to be important for fungal growth and bat choice of hibernation. Here we investigated the effect of temperature on the pathogenic fungal growth in the wild across the Palearctic. We modelled body surface temperature of bats with respect to fungal infection intensity and disease severity and were able to relate this to the mean annual surface temperature at the site. Bats that hibernated at lower temperatures had less fungal growth and fewer skin lesions on their wings. Contrary to expectation derived from laboratory P. destructans culture experiments, natural infection intensity peaked between 5 and 6°C and decreased at warmer hibernating temperature. We made predictive maps based on bat species distributions, temperature and infection intensity and disease severity data to determine not only where P. destructans will be found but also where the infection will be invasive to bats across the Palearctic. Together these data highlight the mechanistic model of the interplay between environmental and biological factors, which determine progression in a wildlife disease.

Department of Biochemistry Ural State Medical University Ekaterinburg Russian Federation

Department of Biology University of York York UK

Department of Botany and Zoology Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

Department of Ecology and Diseases of Game Fish and Bees University of Veterinary and Pharmaceutical Sciences Brno Brno Czech Republic

Department of Ecosystem Research Environmental Risk Assessment and Conservation Biology Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Sofia Bulgaria

Department of Muscle Cell Research Centre of Biosciences Institute of Molecular Physiology and Genetics Slovak Academy of Sciences Bratislava Slovakia

Department of Process Control Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Informatics University of Pardubice Pardubice Czech Republic

Epidemiology Department Irkutsk State Medical University Irkutsk Russian Federation

Institute of Automation and Computer Science Brno University of Technology Brno Czech Republic

Institute of Biology and Soil Science Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladivostok Russian Federation

Institute of Biology Department of Vertebrate Ecology and Palaeontology Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences Wrocław Poland

Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

Institute of Vertebrate Biology Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

International Complex Research Laboratory for Study of Climate Change Land Use and Biodiversity Tyumen State University Tyumen Russian Federation

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