The radial growth of temperate forests responds to climate change with remarkable variation across space and between species. However, there is limited understanding of how growing season extension and increasing drought stress contribute to long-term growth trends. Here, we calibrate the VS-Lite growth model using 2013 tree-ring chronologies from ten broadleaved and five coniferous genera in Central-Southeast Europe to predict intra-annual wood formation under four SSP climate scenarios through the 21st century. Results show that forecasted summer drought stress will be temporarily offset by an extended growing season, leading to stable or positive trends in tree-ring widths until a tipping point in the 2040s-2050s. During the second half of the 21st century, high-emission scenarios lead to growth acceleration in humid coniferous forests due to growing season extension and enhanced growth rate. In contrast, forecasted extension of the growing season is insufficient to compensate for declining summer growth rates at drier sites, resulting in significant growth reduction for all genera, particularly during dry years. Our results demonstrate that adjusting intra-annual wood formation to seasonal moisture availability may become crucial for tree survival in warmer climates. Furthermore, we highlight that only low-emission scenarios support non-declining stem growth in dry forests with current species composition.

Department of Environment Faculty of Environment University of Jan Evangelista Purkyně Pasteurova 15 Ústí nad Labem Czech Republic

Department of Forest Ecology Czech University of Life Sciences Kamýcká 129 Prague Czech Republic

Department of Forest Ecology Landscape Research Institute p r i Lidická 25 27 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology Faculty of Science Charles University Albertov 6 Prague Czech Republic

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology Mendel University in Brno Zemědělská 3 Brno Czech Republic

Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia České Budějovice Czech Republic

Forestry and Game Management Research Institute Strnady 136 Jíloviště Czech Republic

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Bělidla 986 4a Brno Czech Republic

IFER Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research Ltd Cs armady 655 Jilove u Prahy Czech Republic

Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences Dukelská 135 Třeboň Czech Republic

Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología Avda Montañana 1005 Zaragoza Spain

The Green Concept Institute for Carbon Assessments and Restoration Ecology 101 Mohar Apartments Pune India

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