OBJECTIVES: We assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity. METHODS: This study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time. RESULTS: Doing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%-0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314-446 billion per year and US$6.0-8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.
- MeSH
- celosvětové zdraví ekonomika MeSH
- cvičení * MeSH
- hrubý domácí produkt statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita trendy MeSH
- podpora zdraví ekonomika MeSH
- sedavý životní styl * MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Numerous studies have shown that later school start times (SST) are associated with positive student outcomes, including improvements in academic performance, mental and physical health, and public safety. While the benefits of later SST are very well documented in the literature, in practice there is opposition against delaying SST. A major argument against later SST is the claim that delaying SST will result in significant additional costs for schools due to changes in bussing strategies. However, to date, there has only been one published study that has quantified the potential economic benefits of later SST in relation to potential costs. The current study investigates the economic implications of later school start times by examining a policy experiment and its subsequent state-wide economic effects of a state-wide universal shift in school start times to 8.30AM. Using a novel macroeconomic modeling approach, the study estimates changes in the economic performance of 47 US states following a delayed school start time, which includes the benefits of higher academic performance of students and reduced car crash rates. The benefit-cost projections of this study suggest that delaying school start times is a cost-effective, population-level strategy, which could have a significant impact on public health and the US economy. From a policy perspective, these findings are crucial as they demonstrate that significant economic gains resulting from the delay in SST accrue over a relatively short period of time following the adoption of the policy shift.
- MeSH
- analýza nákladů a výnosů MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- ekonomické modely MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- školy ekonomika organizace a řízení MeSH
- spánek MeSH
- studenti psychologie statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- veřejná politika MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Spojené státy americké MeSH
