BACKGROUND & AIMS: Prevention of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) is critical for eliminating HCV in Europe. We estimated the impact of current and scaled-up HCV treatment with and without scaling up opioid substitution therapy (OST) and needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) across Europe over the next 10 years. METHODS: We collected data on PWID HCV treatment rates, PWID prevalence, HCV prevalence, OST, and NSP coverage from 11 European settings. We parameterised an HCV transmission model to setting-specific data that project chronic HCV prevalence and incidence among PWID. RESULTS: At baseline, chronic HCV prevalence varied from <25% (Slovenia/Czech Republic) to >55% (Finland/Sweden), and <2% (Amsterdam/Hamburg/Norway/Denmark/Sweden) to 5% (Slovenia/Czech Republic) of chronically infected PWID were treated annually. The current treatment rates using new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) may achieve observable reductions in chronic prevalence (38-63%) in 10 years in Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Amsterdam. Doubling the HCV treatment rates will reduce prevalence in other sites (12-24%; Belgium/Denmark/Hamburg/Norway/Scotland), but is unlikely to reduce prevalence in Sweden and Finland. Scaling-up OST and NSP to 80% coverage with current treatment rates using DAAs could achieve observable reductions in HCV prevalence (18-79%) in all sites. Using DAAs, Slovenia and Amsterdam are projected to reduce incidence to 2 per 100 person years or less in 10 years. Moderate to substantial increases in the current treatment rates are required to achieve the same impact elsewhere, from 1.4 to 3 times (Czech Republic and France), 5-17 times (France, Scotland, Hamburg, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, and Sweden), to 200 times (Finland). Scaling-up OST and NSP coverage to 80% in all sites reduces treatment scale-up needed by 20-80%. CONCLUSIONS: The scale-up of HCV treatment and other interventions is needed in most settings to minimise HCV transmission among PWID in Europe. LAY SUMMARY: Measuring the amount of HCV in the population of PWID is uncertain. To reduce HCV infection to minimal levels in Europe will require scale-up of both HCV treatment and other interventions that reduce injecting risk (especially OST and provision of sterile injecting equipment).
- MeSH
- Antiviral Agents therapeutic use MeSH
- Hepatitis C, Chronic * drug therapy epidemiology prevention & control MeSH
- Incidence MeSH
- Substance Abuse, Intravenous * complications epidemiology prevention & control MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Needs Assessment MeSH
- Opiate Substitution Treatment methods MeSH
- Disease Transmission, Infectious prevention & control statistics & numerical data MeSH
- Prevalence MeSH
- Needle-Exchange Programs methods organization & administration MeSH
- Models, Theoretical MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- Geographicals
- Europe MeSH
BACKGROUND: Evaluation of treatment effects on walking requires appropriate and responsive outcome measures. OBJECTIVES: To determine responsiveness of 5 walking measures and provide reference values for clinically meaningful improvements, according to disability level, in persons with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). METHODS: Walking tests were measured pre- and postrehabilitation in 290 pwMS from 17 European centers. Combined anchor- and distribution-based methods determined responsiveness of objective short and long walking capacity tests (Timed 25-Foot Walk [T25FW] and 2- and 6-Minute Walk Tests [2MWT and 6MWT] and of the patient-reported Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale-12 [MSWS-12]). A global rating of change scale, from patients' and therapists' perspective, was used as external criteria to determine the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), minimally important change (MIC), and smallest real change (SRC). Patients were stratified into disability subgroups (Expanded Disability Status Scale score ≤4 [n = 98], >4 [n = 186]). RESULTS: MSWS-12, 2MWT, and 6MWT were more responsive (AUC 0.64-0.73) than T25FW (0.50-0.63), especially in moderate to severely disabled pwMS. Clinically meaningful changes (MICs) from patient and therapist perspective were -10.4 and -11.4 for MSWS-12 (P < .01), 9.6 m and 6.8 m for 2MWT (P < .05), and 21.6 m (P < .05) and 9.1 m (P = .3) for 6MWT. In subgroups, MIC was significant from patient perspective for 2MWT (10.8 m) and from therapist perspective for MSWS-12 (-10.7) in mildly disabled pwMS. In moderate to severely disabled pwMS, MIC was significant for MSWS-12 (-14.1 and -11.9). CONCLUSIONS: Long walking tests and patient-reported MSWS-12 were more appropriate than short walking tests in detecting clinically meaningful improvement after physical rehabilitation, particularly the MSWS-12 for moderate to severely disabled pwMS.
- MeSH
- Walking physiology MeSH
- Adult MeSH
- Physical Therapy Modalities * standards MeSH
- Middle Aged MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Recovery of Function MeSH
- Disability Evaluation * MeSH
- Reference Standards MeSH
- Multiple Sclerosis diagnosis rehabilitation MeSH
- Treatment Outcome MeSH
- Check Tag
- Adult MeSH
- Middle Aged MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Male MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Multicenter Study MeSH
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
- Geographicals
- Europe MeSH