INTRODUCTION: Recent advances in machine learning provide new possibilities to process and analyse observational patient data to predict patient outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a data processing pipeline for cardiogenic shock (CS) prediction from the MIMIC III database of intensive cardiac care unit patients with acute coronary syndrome. The ability to identify high-risk patients could possibly allow taking pre-emptive measures and thus prevent the development of CS. METHODS: We mainly focus on techniques for the imputation of missing data by generating a pipeline for imputation and comparing the performance of various multivariate imputation algorithms, including k-nearest neighbours, two singular value decomposition (SVD)-based methods, and Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations. After imputation, we select the final subjects and variables from the imputed dataset and showcase the performance of the gradient-boosted framework that uses a tree-based classifier for cardiogenic shock prediction. RESULTS: We achieved good classification performance thanks to data cleaning and imputation (cross-validated mean area under the curve 0.805) without hyperparameter optimization. CONCLUSION: We believe our pre-processing pipeline would prove helpful also for other classification and regression experiments.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Sleep manifests itself by the spontaneous emergence of characteristic oscillatory rhythms, which often time-lock and are implicated in memory formation. Here, we analyze a neural mass model of the thalamocortical loop in which the cortical node can generate slow oscillations (approximately 1 Hz) while its thalamic component can generate fast sleep spindles of σ-band activity (12-15 Hz). We study the dynamics for different coupling strengths between the thalamic and cortical nodes, for different conductance values of the thalamic node's potassium leak and hyperpolarization-activated cation-nonselective currents, and for different parameter regimes of the cortical node. The latter are listed as follows: (1) a low activity (DOWN) state with noise-induced, transient excursions into a high activity (UP) state, (2) an adaptation induced slow oscillation limit cycle with alternating UP and DOWN states, and (3) a high activity (UP) state with noise-induced, transient excursions into the low activity (DOWN) state. During UP states, thalamic spindling is abolished or reduced. During DOWN states, the thalamic node generates sleep spindles, which in turn can cause DOWN to UP transitions in the cortical node. Consequently, this leads to spindle-induced UP state transitions in parameter regime (1), thalamic spindles induced in some but not all DOWN states in regime (2), and thalamic spindles following UP to DOWN transitions in regime (3). The spindle-induced σ-band activity in the cortical node, however, is typically the strongest during the UP state, which follows a DOWN state "window of opportunity" for spindling. When the cortical node is parametrized in regime (3), the model well explains the interactions between slow oscillations and sleep spindles observed experimentally during Non-Rapid Eye Movement sleep. The model is computationally efficient and can be integrated into large-scale modeling frameworks to study spatial aspects like sleep wave propagation.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high risk of stroke preventable by timely initiation of anticoagulation. Currently available screening tools based on ECG are not optimal due to inconvenience and high costs. Aim of this study was to study the diagnostic value of apelin for AF in patients with high risk of stroke. Methods: We designed a multicenter, matched-cohort study. The population consisted of three study groups: a healthy control group (34 patients) and two matched groups of 60 patients with high risk of stroke (AF and non-AF group). Apelin levels were examined from peripheral blood. Results: Apelin was significantly lower in AF group compared to non-AF group (0.694 ± 0.148 vs. 0.975 ± 0.458 ng/ml, p = 0.001) and control group (0.982 ± 0.060 ng/ml, p < 0.001), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of apelin as a predictor of AF scored area under the curve (AUC) of 0.658. Apelin's concentration of 0.969 [ng/ml] had sensitivity = 0.966 and specificity = 0.467. Logistic regression based on manual feature selection showed that only apelin and NT-proBNP were independent predictors of AF. Logistic regression based on selection from bivariate analysis showed that only apelin was an independent predictor of AF. A logistic regression model using repeated stratified K-Fold cross-validation strategy scored an AUC of 0.725 ± 0.131. Conclusions: Our results suggest that apelin might be used to rule out AF in patients with high risk of stroke.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
In this comparative study, six causality detection methods were compared, namely, the Granger vector autoregressive test, the extended Granger test, the kernel version of the Granger test, the conditional mutual information (transfer entropy), the evaluation of cross mappings between state spaces, and an assessment of predictability improvement due to the use of mixed predictions. Seven test data sets were analyzed: linear coupling of autoregressive models, a unidirectional connection of two Hénon systems, a unidirectional connection of chaotic systems of Rössler and Lorenz type and of two different Rössler systems, an example of bidirectionally connected two-species systems, a fishery model as an example of two correlated observables without a causal relationship, and an example of mediated causality. We tested not only 20000 points long clean time series but also noisy and short variants of the data. The standard and the extended Granger tests worked only for the autoregressive models. The remaining methods were more successful with the more complex test examples, although they differed considerably in their capability to reveal the presence and the direction of coupling and to distinguish causality from mere correlation.
- MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- kauzalita MeSH
- systémová analýza MeSH
- teoretické modely * MeSH
- Publikační typ
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- srovnávací studie MeSH
Nonparametric detection of coupling delay in unidirectionally and bidirectionally coupled nonlinear dynamical systems is examined. Both continuous and discrete-time systems are considered. Two methods of detection are assessed-the method based on conditional mutual information-the CMI method (also known as the transfer entropy method) and the method of convergent cross mapping-the CCM method. Computer simulations show that neither method is generally reliable in the detection of coupling delays. For continuous-time chaotic systems, the CMI method appears to be more sensitive and applicable in a broader range of coupling parameters than the CCM method. In the case of tested discrete-time dynamical systems, the CCM method has been found to be more sensitive, while the CMI method required much stronger coupling strength in order to bring correct results. However, when studied systems contain a strong oscillatory component in their dynamics, results of both methods become ambiguous. The presented study suggests that results of the tested algorithms should be interpreted with utmost care and the nonparametric detection of coupling delay, in general, is a problem not yet solved.
- MeSH
- algoritmy MeSH
- šíření informací MeSH
- systémová analýza MeSH
- teoretické modely * MeSH
- Publikační typ
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as the Earth's climate to volcanic eruptions, extreme events or geoengineering. Here a data-driven approach is introduced based on a dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, and novel network measures based on causal effect theory that go beyond standard complex network tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways. Applied to a data set of atmospheric dynamics, the method identifies several strongly uplifting regions acting as major gateways of perturbations spreading in the atmosphere. Additionally, the method provides a stricter statistical approach to pathways of atmospheric teleconnections, yielding insights into the Pacific-Indian Ocean interaction relevant for monsoonal dynamics. Also for neuroscience or power grids, the novel causal interaction perspective provides a complementary approach to simulations or experiments for understanding the functioning of complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in increasing their resilience to shocks or extreme events.
