Infectious wildlife diseases that circulate at the interface with domestic animals pose significant threats worldwide and require early detection and warning. Although animal tracking technologies are used to discern behavioural changes, they are rarely used to monitor wildlife diseases. Common disease-induced behavioural changes include reduced activity and lethargy ('sickness behaviour'). Here, we investigated whether accelerometer sensors could detect the onset of African swine fever (ASF), a viral infection that induces high mortality in suids for which no vaccine is currently available. Taking advantage of an experiment designed to test an oral ASF vaccine, we equipped 12 wild boars with an accelerometer tag and quantified how ASF affects their activity pattern and behavioural fingerprint, using overall dynamic body acceleration. Wild boars showed a daily reduction in activity of 10-20% from the healthy to the viremia phase. Using change point statistics and comparing healthy individuals living in semi-free and free-ranging conditions, we show how the onset of disease-induced sickness can be detected and how such early detection could work in natural settings. Timely detection of infection in animals is crucial for disease surveillance and control, and accelerometer technology on sentinel animals provides a viable complementary tool to existing disease management approaches.

• Klíčová slova
• African swine fever, animal sentinel, biosignal, wild boar, wildlife disease monitoring,
• MeSH
• africký mor prasat * diagnóza   MeSH
• akcelerometrie veterinární   MeSH
• divoká zvířata MeSH
• hospodářská zvířata MeSH
• prasata MeSH
• Sus scrofa * MeSH
• zrychlení MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH

For the monitoring of wild boar interactions with conspecific carcasses, seven wild boar carcasses were placed in different sites in the Czech Republic during winter season. Data were collected by camera traps. In total, 732 visits were recorded of wild boars at the carcass sites. Direct contact with the carcass was detected in 81% of the records. Cannibalism was observed in 9.8% of all recorded visits. The first direct contact was observed on average 30 days after the carcass had been placed in its respective site. Cannibalism was observed on average after 70 days. The effect of sex-age class on direct contact was not proven in our study. The presented findings show that cannibalism in wild boar can play a substantial role in the ASF epidemic. These results highlighted the importance of the removal of infected carcasses from the habitat, which is crucial for African swine fever eradication.

• Klíčová slova
• African swine fever, camera-trapping, cannibalism, wild boar behaviour,
• MeSH
• africký mor prasat epidemiologie   přenos   virologie   MeSH
• ekosystém MeSH
• epidemie veterinární   MeSH
• kanibalismus MeSH
• prasata MeSH
• roční období MeSH
• Sus scrofa MeSH
• virus afrického moru prasat fyziologie   MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Česká republika epidemiologie   MeSH

The importance of social and spatial structuring of wildlife populations for disease spread, though widely recognized, is still poorly understood in many host-pathogen systems. In particular, system-specific kin relationships among hosts can create contact heterogeneities and differential disease transmission rates. Here, we investigate how distance-dependent infection risk is influenced by genetic relatedness in a novel host-pathogen system: wild boar (Sus scrofa) and African swine fever (ASF). We hypothesized that infection risk would correlate positively with proximity and relatedness to ASF-infected individuals but expected those relationships to weaken with the distance between individuals due to decay in contact rates and genetic similarity. We genotyped 323 wild boar samples (243 ASF-negative and 80 ASF-positive) collected in north-eastern Poland in 2014-2016 and modelled the effects of geographic distance, genetic relatedness and ASF virus transmission mode (direct or carcass-based) on the probability of ASF infection. Infection risk was positively associated with spatial proximity and genetic relatedness to infected individuals with generally stronger effect of distance. In the high-contact zone (0-2 km), infection risk was shaped by the presence of infected individuals rather than by relatedness to them. In the medium-contact zone (2-5 km), infection risk decreased but was still associated with relatedness and paired infections were more frequent among relatives. At farther distances, infection risk further declined with relatedness and proximity to positive individuals, and was 60% lower among un-related individuals in the no-contact zone (33% in10-20 km) compared among relatives in the high-contact zone (93% in 0-2 km). Transmission mode influenced the relationship between proximity or relatedness and infection risk. Our results indicate that the presence of nearby infected individuals is most important for shaping ASF infection rates through carcass-based transmission, while relatedness plays an important role in shaping transmission rates between live animals.

• Klíčová slova
• ASF, disease ecology, kinship, social behaviour, transmission, wild boar,
• MeSH
• africký mor prasat * MeSH
• divoká zvířata MeSH
• náchylnost k nemoci veterinární   MeSH
• nemoci prasat * MeSH
• prasata MeSH
• pravděpodobnost MeSH
• Sus scrofa MeSH
• virus afrického moru prasat * genetika   MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

The spatial spread of infectious disease is determined by spatial and social processes such as animal space use and family group structure. Yet, the impacts of social processes on spatial spread remain poorly understood and estimates of spatial transmission kernels (STKs) often exclude social structure. Understanding the impacts of social structure on STKs is important for obtaining robust inferences for policy decisions and optimizing response plans. We fit spatially explicit transmission models with different assumptions about contact structure to African swine fever virus surveillance data from eastern Poland from 2014 to 2015 and evaluated how social structure affected inference of STKs and spatial spread. The model with social structure provided better inference of spatial spread, predicted that approximately 80% of transmission events occurred within family groups, and that transmission was weakly female-biased (other models predicted weakly male-biased transmission). In all models, most transmission events were within 1.5 km, with some rare events at longer distances. Effective reproductive numbers were between 1.1 and 2.5 (maximum values between 4 and 8). Social structure can modify spatial transmission dynamics. Accounting for this additional contact heterogeneity in spatial transmission models could provide more robust inferences of STKs for policy decisions, identify best control targets and improve transparency in model uncertainty.

• Klíčová slova
• African swine fever, effective reproduction number, social structure, spatial transmission kernel, surveillance, wild boar,
• MeSH
• africký mor prasat * epidemiologie   MeSH
• nejistota MeSH
• prasata MeSH
• Sus scrofa MeSH
• virus afrického moru prasat * MeSH
• základní reprodukční číslo MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH

Host abundance and landscape structure often interact to shape spatial patterns of many wildlife diseases. Emergence, spread, and persistence of African swine fever (ASF) among wild boar in eastern Europe has raised questions on the factors underlying ASF dynamics in this novel host-pathogen system. This work identifies drivers of ASF occurrence in natural wild boar population. We evaluated factors shaping the probability of ASF-postitive wild boar during the first three years (2014-2016) of the ASF epidemic in Poland. We expected to observe positive effects of wild boar density, proportion of forested area, human activity, and proximity to previous infections on ASF case probability. We tested these predictions using the infection status of 830 wild boar samples and generalized mixed-effects models. The probability of ASF case increased from 3 to 20% as population density rose from 0.4 to 2 ind./km2. The positive effect of population density on ASF case probability was stronger at locations near previous ASF incidents. ASF was more likely to occur in forested areas, with the probability of detecting an ASF positive sample rising from 2 to 11% as forest cover around the sample increased from 0.5 to 100%. This pattern was consistent at both low and high wild boar densities. Indicators of human activity were poor predictors of ASF occurrence. Disease control efforts, such as culling and carcass search, should be focused on high-density populations where chances of detecting and eliminating ASF-positive wild boar are higher. The intensity of control measures should decrease with distance from the infected area to match the observed spatial pattern of ASF case probability. Woodlands represent areas of the highest risk of ASF case occurrence. Distribution and connectivity of suitable habitats over the landscape can be used to prioritize disease-management actions.

• Klíčová slova
• ASF, Disease control, Disease spread, Host density, Landscape structure,
• MeSH
• africký mor prasat epidemiologie   MeSH
• biologické modely MeSH
• divoká zvířata MeSH
• epidemie veterinární   MeSH
• interakce hostitele a patogenu * MeSH
• prasata MeSH
• pravděpodobnost MeSH
• prostorová analýza MeSH
• Sus scrofa MeSH
• virus afrického moru prasat fyziologie   MeSH
• životní prostředí MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Polsko epidemiologie   MeSH

Since the introduction in Georgia in 2007 of an African swine fever (ASF) genotype 2 virus strain, the virus has rapidly spread to both Western European and Asian countries. It now constitutes a major threat for the global swine industry. The ongoing European transmission cycle has been related to the 'wild boar habitat' with closed transmission events between wild boar populations and incidental spillovers to commercial and non-commercial (backyard) pig holdings. During the epidemic in Belgium, only wild boar were infected and although the introduction route has not yet been elucidated, the 'human factor' is highly suspected. While ASF was successfully contained in a small region in the Southern part of Belgium without affecting domestic pigs, the risk of spillover at the wild/domestic interface remains poorly assessed. In this study, we used a semi-quantitative method, involving national and international experts, to assess the risk associated with different transmission routes for ASF introduction from wild boar to domestic pig holdings and subsequent dissemination between holdings in the Belgian epidemiological context. Qualitative responses obtained by our questionnaire were numerically transformed and statistically processed to provide a semi-quantitative assessment of the occurrence of the hazard and a ranking of all transmission routes. 'Farmer', 'bedding material', 'veterinarian' and 'professionals from the pig sector' were considered as the most important transmission routes for ASF introduction from the wild reservoir to pig holdings. 'Animal movements', 'farmer', 'veterinarian', 'iatrogenic', 'animal transport truck' and 'animal care equipment' were considered as the most important transmission routes posing a risk of ASF spread between pig holdings. Combined with specific biosecurity checks in the holdings, this assessment helps in prioritizing risk mitigation measures against ASF introduction and further spread in the domestic pig industry, particularly while the ASF situation in Western Europe is worsening.

• Klíčová slova
• African swine fever, pig, risk assessment, spread, wild boar,
• MeSH
• africký mor prasat * epidemiologie   MeSH
• epidemický výskyt choroby veterinární   MeSH
• hodnocení rizik MeSH
• nemoci prasat * MeSH
• prasata MeSH
• Sus scrofa MeSH
• virus afrického moru prasat * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Belgie epidemiologie   MeSH

INTRODUCTION: African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable disease of swine that impacts global pork trade and food security. In several countries across the globe, the disease persists in wild boar (WB) populations sympatric to domestic pig (DP) operations, with continued detections in both sectors. While there is evidence of spillover and spillback between the sectors, the frequency of occurrence and relative importance of different risk factors for transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface remain unclear. METHODS: To address this gap, we leveraged ASF surveillance data from WB and DP across Eastern Poland from 2014-2019 in an analysis that quantified the relative importance of different risk factors for explaining variation in each of the ASF surveillance data from WB and DP. RESULTS: ASF prevalence exhibited different seasonal trends across the sectors: apparent prevalence was much higher in summer (84% of detections) in DP, but more consistent throughout the year in WB (highest in winter with 45%, lowest in summer at 15%). Only 21.8% of DP-positive surveillance data included surveillance in WB nearby (within 5 km of the grid cell within the last 4 weeks), while 41.9% of WB-positive surveillance samples included any DP surveillance samples nearby. Thus, the surveillance design afforded twice as much opportunity to find DP-positive samples in the recent vicinity of WB-positive samples compared to the opposite, yet the rate of positive WB samples in the recent vicinity of a positive DP sample was 48 times as likely than the rate of positive DP samples in the recent vicinity of a positive WB sample. Our machine learning analyses found that positive samples in WB were predicted by WB-related risk factors, but not to DP-related risk factors. In contrast, WB risk factors were important for predicting detections in DP on a few spatial and temporal scales of data aggregation. DISCUSSION: Our results highlight that spillover from WB to DP might be more frequent than the reverse, but that the structure of current surveillance systems challenge quantification of spillover frequency and risk factors. Our results emphasize the importance of, and provide guidance for, improving cross-sector surveillance designs.

• Klíčová slova
• African swine fever, domestic pigs, surveillance, wild boar, wildlife-livestock,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious haemorrhagic fever that affects both domesticated and wild pigs. Since ASF reached Europe wild boar populations have been a reservoir for the virus. Collecting reliable data on infected individuals in wild populations is challenging, and this makes it difficult to deploy an effective eradication strategy. However, for diseases with high lethality rate, infected carcasses can be used as a proxy for the number of infected individuals at a certain time. Then R0 parameter can be used to estimate the time distribution of the number of newly infected individuals for the outbreak. We estimated R0 for two ASF outbreaks in wild boar, in Czech Republic and Belgium, using the exponential growth method. This allowed us to estimate both R0 and the doubling time (Td) for those infections. The results are R0 = 1.95, Td = 4.39 for Czech Republic and R0 = 1.65, Td = 6.43 for Belgium. We suggest that, if estimated as early as possible, R0 and Td can provide an expected course for the infection against which to compare the actual data collected in the field. This would help to assess if passive surveillance is properly implemented and hence to verify the efficacy of the applied control measures.

• Klíčová slova
• African swine fever, Europe, R0, doubling time, eradication strategies, wild boar,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

An ongoing, continually spreading, outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), following its identification in Georgia in 2007, has resulted in 17 European and 12 Asian countries reporting cases by April 2020, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. Curtailing further spread of ASF requires understanding of the transmission pathways of the disease. ASF is self-sustaining in the wild boar population, and they have been implicated as one of the main drivers of transmission within Europe. We developed a spatially explicit model to estimate the risk of infection with ASF in wild boar and pigs due to natural movement of wild boar that is applicable across the whole of Europe. We demonstrate the model by using it to predict the probability that early cases of ASF in Poland were caused by wild boar dispersion. The risk of infection in 2015 is computed due to wild boar cases in Poland in 2014, compared against reported cases in 2015, and then the procedure is repeated for 2015-2016. We find that long- and medium-distance spread of ASF (i.e. >30 km) is unlikely to have occurred due to wild boar dispersal, due in part to the generally short distances wild boar will travel (<20 km on average). We also predict the relative success of different control strategies in 2015, if they were implemented in 2014. Results suggest that hunting of wild boar reduces the number of new cases, but a larger region is at risk of ASF compared with no control measure. Alternatively, introducing wild boar-proof fencing reduces the size of the region at risk in 2015, but not the total number of cases. Overall, our model suggests wild boar movement is only responsible for local transmission of disease; thus, other pathways are more dominant in medium- and long-distance spread of the disease.

• Klíčová slova
• dispersal, fencing, hunting, intervention strategies, risk assessment, risk of infection, wild boar movement,
• MeSH
• africký mor prasat epidemiologie   prevence a kontrola   přenos   MeSH
• chování zvířat MeSH
• divoká zvířata * MeSH
• epidemický výskyt choroby veterinární   MeSH
• prasata MeSH
• pravděpodobnost MeSH
• Sus scrofa * MeSH
• virus afrického moru prasat MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Asie epidemiologie   MeSH
• Evropa epidemiologie   MeSH

Environmental sources of infection can play a primary role in shaping epidemiological dynamics; however, the relative impact of environmental transmission on host-pathogen systems is rarely estimated. We developed and fit a spatially explicit model of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in wild boar to estimate what proportion of carcass-based transmission is contributing to the low-level persistence of ASFV in Eastern European wild boar. Our model was developed based on ecological insight and data from field studies of ASFV and wild boar in Eastern Poland. We predicted that carcass-based transmission would play a substantial role in persistence, especially in low-density host populations where contact rates are low. By fitting the model to outbreak data using approximate Bayesian computation, we inferred that between 53% and 66% of transmission events were carcass-based that is, transmitted through contact of a live host with a contaminated carcass. Model fitting and sensitivity analyses showed that the frequency of carcass-based transmission increased with decreasing host density, suggesting that management policies should emphasize the removal of carcasses and consider how reductions in host densities may drive carcass-based transmission. Sensitivity analyses also demonstrated that carcass-based transmission is necessary for the autonomous persistence of ASFV under realistic parameters. Autonomous persistence through direct transmission alone required high host densities; otherwise re-introduction of virus periodically was required for persistence when direct transmission probabilities were moderately high. We quantify the relative role of different persistence mechanisms for a low-prevalence disease using readily collected ecological data and viral surveillance data. Understanding how the frequency of different transmission mechanisms vary across host densities can help identify optimal management strategies across changing ecological conditions.

• Klíčová slova
• African swine fever, approximate Bayesian computation, carcass, environmental transmission, persistence, spatial model, transmission, wild boar,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH