INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of vaccination of infants with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children under 5 years of age in the Czech Republic. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The present study includes all IPD cases reported in children aged 0-4 years within the surveillance program in 2007-2017. The impact of PCV is analysed for five categories of IPD: cases caused by all serotypes, cases caused by PCV7 serotypes (4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F), cases caused by three additional PCV10 serotypes (1, 5, and 7F), cases caused by three additional PCV13 serotypes (3, 6A, and 19A), and cases caused by non-PCV serotypes. To assess the impact of PCV, the study period was divided into the pre-vaccination period 2007-2008 and post-vaccination period 2009-2017, which was divided into three three-year parts: 2009-2011, 2012-2014, and 2015-2017. Analysis of differences between periods was based on the Poisson regression model where the population numbers were handled as an offset. RESULTS: The annual incidence of IPD in children under 5 years of age caused by all serotypes has had a downward trend since 2007: it dropped from 8.52/100 000 in 2007 to 2.67/100 000 in 2017, with slight increases in 2010 and 2013. All three post-vaccination periods show significantly lower (p<0.001) incidences in comparison to the pre-vaccination period, but they do not statistically significantly differ from each other. CONCLUSIONS: IPD surveillance data in the Czech Republic show that after the introduction of PCV vaccination of infants, there has been a significant decrease in the IPD incidence of children under 5 years of age. Continued IPD surveillance is essential to monitor for possible post-vaccination serotype replacement.
- MeSH
- DNA bakterií genetika izolace a purifikace MeSH
- incidence MeSH
- kohortové studie MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- ochrana veřejného zdraví metody MeSH
- pneumokokové infekce epidemiologie prevence a kontrola MeSH
- pneumokokové vakcíny terapeutické užití MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- séroskupina MeSH
- Streptococcus pneumoniae genetika imunologie MeSH
- vakcinace metody MeSH
- vakcíny konjugované terapeutické užití MeSH
- výsledek terapie MeSH
- Check Tag
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
In epidemiology, it is very important to estimate the baseline incidence of infectious diseases, but the available data are often subject to outliers due to epidemic outbreaks. Consequently, the estimate of the baseline incidence is biased and so is the predicted epidemic threshold which is a crucial reference indicator used to suspect and detect an epidemic outbreak. Another problem is that the "usual" incidence varies in a season dependent manner, i.e. it may not be constant throughout the year, is often periodic, and may also show a trend between years. To take account of these factors, more complicated models adjusted for outliers are used. If not adjusted for outliers, the baseline incidence estimate is biased. As a result, the epidemic threshold can be overestimated and thus can make the detection of an epidemic outbreak more difficult. Classical Serfling's model is based on the sine function with a phase shift and amplitude. Multiple approaches are applied to model the long-term and seasonal trends. Nevertheless, none of them controls for the effect of epidemic outbreaks. The present article deals with the adjustment of the data biased by epidemic outbreaks. Some models adjusted for outliers, i.e. for the effect of epidemic outbreaks, are presented. A possible option is to remove the epidemic weeks from the analysis, but consequently, in some calendar weeks, data will only be available for a small number of years. Furthermore, the detection of an epidemic outbreak by experts (epidemiologists and microbiologists) will be compared with that in various models.
