MOTIVATION: The association between weather conditions and stroke incidence has been a subject of interest for several years, yet the findings from various studies remain inconsistent. Additionally, predictive modelling in this context has been infrequent. This study explores the relationship of extremely high ischaemic stroke incidence and meteorological factors within the Slovak population. Furthermore, it aims to construct forecasting models of extremely high number of strokes. METHODS: Over a five-year period, a total of 52,036 cases of ischemic stroke were documented. Days exhibiting a notable surge in ischemic stroke occurrences (surpassing the 90th percentile of historical records) were identified as extreme cases. These cases were then scrutinized alongside daily meteorological parameters spanning from 2015 to 2019. To create forecasts for the occurrence of these extreme cases one day in advance, three distinct methods were employed: Logistic regression, Random Forest for Time Series, and Croston's method. RESULTS: For each of the analyzed stroke centers, the cross-correlations between instances of extremely high stroke numbers and meteorological factors yielded negligible results. Predictive performance achieved by forecasts generated through multivariate logistic regression and Random Forest for time series analysis, which incorporated meteorological data, was on par with that of Croston's method. Notably, Croston's method relies solely on the stroke time series data. All three forecasting methods exhibited limited predictive accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The task of predicting days characterized by an exceptionally high number of strokes proved to be challenging across all three explored methods. The inclusion of meteorological parameters did not yield substantive improvements in forecasting accuracy.
- MeSH
- Incidence MeSH
- Ischemic Stroke * epidemiology MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Logistic Models MeSH
- Meteorological Concepts MeSH
- Weather * MeSH
- Forecasting * methods MeSH
- Aged MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Male MeSH
- Aged MeSH
- Female MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Slovakia MeSH
The aim of the study was to characterize vertical distribution of particulate matter, in an area well known by highest air pollution levels in Europe. A balloon filled with helium with measuring instrumentation was used for vertical observation of air pollution over the fugitive sources in Moravian-Silesian metropolitan area during spring and summer. Synchronously, selected meteorological parameters were recorded together with particulate matter for exploration its relationship with particulate matter. Concentrations of particulate matter in the vertical profile were significantly higher in the spring than in the summer. Significant effect of fugitive sources was observed up to the altitude ∼255 m (∼45 m above ground) in both seasons. The presence of inversion layer was observed at the altitude ∼350 m (120-135 m above ground) at locations with major source traffic load. Both particulate matter concentrations and number of particles for the selected particle sizes decreased with increasing height. Strong correlation of particulate matter with meteorological parameters was not observed. The study represents the first attempt to assess the vertical profile over the fugitive emission sources - old environmental burdens in industrial region.
- MeSH
- Environmental Monitoring MeSH
- Particulate Matter analysis MeSH
- Industry MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Particle Size MeSH
- Air Pollution analysis MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Europe MeSH
The particle size distribution of particulate matter (PM) and concentrations of water-soluble ions were observed in airborne aerosol in the City of Ostrava (the Czech Republic, Moravian-Silesian Region) during winter 2016. The Ostrava area ranks among the most polluted areas not only within the Czech Republic but also in Europe due to the high concentration of industry, especially metallurgy, in this area. The selected water-soluble ions: were studied in different grain size classes of particulate matter separated into 7 fractions (from 0.0175 to 9.93 μm) collected by an electrical low pressure impactor ELPI+. Assessment of the influence of meteorological parameters and various sources of contamination (transportation, industry, and residential burning) in heavily environmentally-burdened urban areas was attempted. This study proved that (K)+ is related to metallurgical processes and its role as an indicator of biomass combustion is negligible. The highest concentrations of all water-soluble ions were determined in particles below 0.952 μm that is generally related to combustion processes. At increased air temperature (in the interval from 0 °C to 10 °C), concentrations of both dust particles and the sum of water-soluble ions are decreasing.
- MeSH
- Aerosols MeSH
- Ions MeSH
- Air Pollutants * MeSH
- Environmental Monitoring MeSH
- Particulate Matter MeSH
- Dust * MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Particle Size MeSH
- Cities MeSH
- Water MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic MeSH
- Europe MeSH
- Cities MeSH
Black carbon - a primary component of particulate matter emitted from an incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biomass, and biofuels - has been found to have a detrimental effect on human health and the environment. Since black carbon emissions data are not readily available, no measures are implemented to reduce black carbon emissions. The temporal and seasonal variations of black carbon concentrations were evaluated during 2012-2014. The data were collected in the highly polluted European city - Ostrava, Czech Republic, surrounded by major highways and large industries. Significantly higher black carbon concentrations were obtained in Ostrava, relative to other European cities and the magnitude was equivalent to the magnitude of black carbon concentrations measured in Poland and China. The data were categorized to heating and non-heating seasons based on the periodic pattern of daily and monthly average concentrations of black carbon. A higher black carbon concentration was obtained during heating season than non-heating season and was primarily associated with an increase in residential coal burning and meteorological parameters. The concentration of black carbon was found to be negatively correlated with temperature and wind speed, and positively correlated with the relative humidity. Other black carbon sources potentially included emissions from vehicle exhaust and the local steel-producing industry.
- MeSH
- Biomass MeSH
- Fossil Fuels MeSH
- Air Pollutants analysis MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Particulate Matter analysis MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Coal MeSH
- Carbon analysis MeSH
- Cities MeSH
- Vehicle Emissions analysis MeSH
- Environmental Pollution MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic MeSH
- China MeSH
- Europe MeSH
- Poland MeSH
- Cities MeSH
In autumn 2010, an outdoor measuring station for measurement of atmospheric radon, gamma equivalent dose rate in the range of 100 nSv h(-1)-1 Sv h(-1) and proper meteorological parameters such as thermal air gradient, relative air humidity, wind speed and direction and solar radiation intensity was built in the area of the National Radiation Protection Institute vvi. The station was designed to be independent of an electrical network and enables on-line wireless transfer of all data. After introduction of the station, illustrations of its measurement properties and the results of measured diurnal and seasonal variability of atmospheric radon, based on annual continuous measurement using a high-volume scintillation cell at a height of 2.5 m above the ground, are presented.
- MeSH
- Time Factors MeSH
- Risk Assessment MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Radiation Monitoring * MeSH
- Air Movements MeSH
- Radioactive Pollutants analysis MeSH
- Radon analysis MeSH
- Seasons * MeSH
- Temperature MeSH
- Wind MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic MeSH
During years 2010-12 an automated, on-line and wireless outdoor measurement station of atmospheric radon, gamma dose rate and meteorological parameters was realised at the National Radiation Protection Institute (NRPI) in Prague. At the turn of the year 2013 an expansion of the existing station was completed. Under the project funded by the Czech Technological Agency a new updated station was established, additionally equipped with modules for measurement of atmospheric radon/thoron short-lived decay products, radon in water and soil and radon exhalation rate from soil. After the introduction of the station updated key detection parameters and benefits, its use for atmospheric modelling and monitoring is demonstrated. There are summarised results from the 3-year measurement period in the NRPI outdoor area in Prague and from simultaneous annual measurement performed by another similar station located near uranium mud fields in DIAMO, state enterprise, Stráž pod Ralskem. Observed seasonal and diurnal variations of atmospheric radon concentrations and variability of the equilibrium factor, F, are illustrated and compared.
- MeSH
- Radon Daughters analysis MeSH
- Radiation Monitoring methods MeSH
- Weather MeSH
- Soil Pollutants, Radioactive analysis MeSH
- Air Pollutants, Radioactive analysis MeSH
- Radon analysis MeSH
- Gamma Rays MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic MeSH
A stepwise sequential assimilation algorithm is proposed based on an optimisation approach for recursive parameter estimation and tracking of radioactive plume propagation in the early stage of a radiation accident. Predictions of the radiological situation in each time step of the plume propagation are driven by an existing short-term meteorological forecast and the assimilation procedure manipulates the model parameters to match the observations incoming concurrently from the terrain. Mathematically, the task is a typical ill-posed inverse problem of estimating the parameters of the release. The proposed method is designated as a stepwise re-estimation of the source term release dynamics and an improvement of several input model parameters. It results in a more precise determination of the adversely affected areas in the terrain. The nonlinear least-squares regression methodology is applied for estimation of the unknowns. The fast and adequately accurate segmented Gaussian plume model (SGPM) is used in the first stage of direct (forward) modelling. The subsequent inverse procedure infers (re-estimates) the values of important model parameters from the actual observations. Accuracy and sensitivity of the proposed method for real-time forecasting of the accident propagation is studied. First, a twin experiment generating noiseless simulated "artificial" observations is studied to verify the minimisation algorithm. Second, the impact of the measurement noise on the re-estimated source release rate is examined. In addition, the presented method can be used as a proposal for more advanced statistical techniques using, e.g., importance sampling.
Anomalies in the radon (222Rn) releases in underground environments are one of the phenomena that can be observed before earthquake occurrence. Continuous measurements of radon activity concentration, and of meteorological parameters that influence the gas emission, were performed in three Slovak and Czech caves during 1-y period (1 July 2016-30 June 2017). The radon activity concentration in caves shows seasonal variations, with maxima reached during summer months. The anomalies in the radon time series are identified using a combination of three mathematical methods: multiple linear regression, empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression. The radon anomaly periods were compared with earthquake occurrences in Europe. Coincidences between both phenomena were found, since all monitored caves reflect contemporaneous local tectonic changes. The results indicate that radon continuous monitoring could assist a better understanding of radon emissions, along active tectonic structures, during seismic events.
- MeSH
- Interrupted Time Series Analysis MeSH
- Caves * MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Radiation Monitoring methods MeSH
- Gases analysis MeSH
- Soil Pollutants, Radioactive analysis MeSH
- Radon analysis MeSH
- Seasons MeSH
- Earthquakes statistics & numerical data MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic MeSH
- Slovakia MeSH
A 2-year study explored metabolic and phenotypic plasticity of sun-acclimated Vitis vinifera cv. Pinot noir leaves collected from 12 locations across a 36.69-49.98°N latitudinal gradient. Leaf morphological and biochemical parameters were analysed in the context of meteorological parameters and the latitudinal gradient. We found that leaf fresh weight and area were negatively correlated with both global and ultraviolet (UV) radiation, cumulated global radiation being a stronger correlator. Cumulative UV radiation (sumUVR) was the strongest correlator with most leaf metabolites and pigments. Leaf UV-absorbing pigments, total antioxidant capacities, and phenolic compounds increased with increasing sumUVR, whereas total carotenoids and xanthophylls decreased. Despite of this reallocation of metabolic resources from carotenoids to phenolics, an increase in xanthophyll-cycle pigments (the sum of the amounts of three xanthophylls: violaxanthin, antheraxanthin, and zeaxanthin) with increasing sumUVR indicates active, dynamic protection for the photosynthetic apparatus. In addition, increased amounts of flavonoids (quercetin glycosides) and constitutive β-carotene and α-tocopherol pools provide antioxidant protection against reactive oxygen species. However, rather than a continuum of plant acclimation responses, principal component analysis indicates clusters of metabolic states across the explored 1,500-km-long latitudinal gradient. This study emphasizes the physiological component of plant responses to latitudinal gradients and reveals the physiological plasticity that may act to complement genetic adaptations.
- MeSH
- Absorption, Radiation MeSH
- alpha-Tocopherol analysis MeSH
- Principal Component Analysis MeSH
- Antioxidants metabolism MeSH
- Biomass MeSH
- Phenols analysis MeSH
- Carotenoids analysis MeSH
- Plant Leaves anatomy & histology metabolism physiology radiation effects MeSH
- Metabolome MeSH
- Climate * MeSH
- Ultraviolet Rays MeSH
- Vitis anatomy & histology metabolism physiology radiation effects MeSH
- Xanthophylls analysis MeSH
- Geography MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Europe MeSH
Highly time-resolved particle number size distributions (PNSDs) were evaluated during 5 years (2013-2017) at four background stations in the Czech Republic located in different types of environments-urban background (Ústí nad Labem), industrial background (Lom), agricultural background (National Atmospheric Observatory Košetice), and suburban background (Prague-Suchdol). The PNSD data was used for new particle formation event determination as well as growth rate (GR) and condensation sink (CS) calculations. The differences or similarities of these parameters were evaluated from perspectives of the different pollution load, meteorological condition, and regional or long-range transport. The median growth rate (4 nm h-1) is very similar at all stations, and the most frequent length of growth lasted between 2 and 4 h. Condensation sink reflects the pollution load at the individual station and their connection to the environment type. The highest median, CS = 1.34 × 10-2 s-1, was recorded at the urban station (Ústí nad Labem), and the lowest (CS = 0.85 × 10-2 s-1) was recorded at the agricultural station (National Atmospheric Observatory Košetice). Conditional probability function polar plots illustrate the influence of source location to GR. These primary potential emission sources involve traffic, operation of a power plant, and domestic heating.
- MeSH
- Aerosols analysis MeSH
- Air Pollutants * analysis MeSH
- Environmental Monitoring MeSH
- Particulate Matter analysis MeSH
- Air Pollution * analysis MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic MeSH
