Population specificity
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Forensic anthropology has developed classification techniques for sex estimation of unknown skeletal remains, for example population-specific discriminant function analyses. These methods were designed for populations that lived mostly in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Their level of reliability or misclassification is important for practical use in today's forensic practice; it is, however, unknown. We addressed the question of what the likelihood of errors would be if population specificity of discriminant functions of the tibia were disregarded. Moreover, five classification functions in a Czech sample were proposed (accuracies 82.1-87.5 %, sex bias ranged from -1.3 to -5.4 %). We measured ten variables traditionally used for sex assessment of the tibia on a sample of 30 male and 26 female models from recent Czech population. To estimate the classification accuracy and error (misclassification) rates ignoring population specificity, we selected published classification functions of tibia for the Portuguese, south European, and the North American populations. These functions were applied on the dimensions of the Czech population. Comparing the classification success of the reference and the tested Czech sample showed that females from Czech population were significantly overestimated and mostly misclassified as males. Overall accuracy of sex assessment significantly decreased (53.6-69.7 %), sex bias -29.4-100 %, which is most probably caused by secular trend and the generally high variability of body size. Results indicate that the discriminant functions, developed for skeletal series representing geographically and chronologically diverse populations, are not applicable in current forensic investigations. Finally, implications and recommendations for future research are discussed.
- Klíčová slova
- Discriminant function analysis, Forensic anthropology population data, GAME method, Population specificity, Sex determination, Tibia,
- MeSH
- anatomická značka MeSH
- diskriminační analýza MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- neuronové sítě MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- soudní antropologie MeSH
- tibie anatomie a histologie diagnostické zobrazování MeSH
- určení pohlaví podle kostry * MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Vertebral measurements have been shown to provide accurate classification of sex. However, the use of vertebral discriminant functions (DFs) in forensic anthropology and bioarchaeology is limited due to the unknown degree of their population specificity. Additionally, the performance of vertebral DFs has not yet been assessed at higher posterior probability thresholds. In this study, we tested the performance of previously published DFs for sex classification from Th12 and L1 vertebrae within a range of 0.5-0.95 posterior probabilities in a model of geographically distant population based on an autopsy Central European (CE) sample (Czech Republic; n=72) from the 1930s. Further, we derived new pooled DFs from a sample representing ecogeographically diverse populations, new DFs derived from the autopsy CE sample, and new Medieval CE DFs derived from the Pohansko sample (n=129) and evaluated their performance at our testing autopsy CE sample. Most vertebral measurements showed population specificity in sex assessment. However, we identified two Th12 measurements (anteroposterior body diameter and mediolateral body diameter) usable for sex estimation across populations. We showed that the accuracy of vertebral DFs can be increased to 95% of correctly classified individuals in up to 64% of the studied sample by setting a higher posterior probability threshold. Finally, we showed that even the DFs derived from relatively small subsamples (30% of the population size) can provide accurate sex classification. This finding highlights the applicability of the hybrid approach in sex classification from vertebrae. To facilitate sex classification from vertebrae, we provide a software tool for sex classification from any vertebral measurement and reference samples tested in this study including the previously published DFs.
- Klíčová slova
- Central Europe, Discriminant function analysis, Forensic anthropology population data, Posterior probability, Sex classification, Sexual dimorphism,
- MeSH
- bederní obratle anatomie a histologie MeSH
- diskriminační analýza MeSH
- hrudní obratle anatomie a histologie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- soudní antropologie MeSH
- určení pohlaví podle kostry metody MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
Organisms with wide geographical or phenotypic diversity often constitute assemblages of genetically distinct species or lineages. Within parasites, an emergence of host-specific lineages is assumed to create such cryptic variability; however, empirical evaluation of these processes is scarce. Here, we analyse populations of a parasite with a complex life cycle, wide host spectrum and global distribution, with the aim to reveal factors underlying the evolution of host- or geography-dependent lineages. Using 15 microsatellite loci, deep genetic distances were observed between populations from distant geographical areas. On the local scale, host-mediated genetic structure was found among sympatric samples. Two lineages differing in the spectrum of infected hosts co-occurred in the Euro-Mediterranean area, and two distinct lineages were recovered from Lake Tana in Ethiopia. Although sampled across several host taxa and multiple localities, a lack of marked genetic structure was seen in the populations belonging to one of the European lineages. Only weak genetic differentiation between sympatric samples from two host species was found. Complexity of the parasite life-cycle contributed to such a stratified pattern. Differences in the immune response between fish hosts were suggested as the factor diversifying the populations locally; conversely, high mobility of the parasite due to migration with its bird (definitive) host were assessed to homogenize populations across the area of distribution. However, despite the high mobility, large bodies of salt water prevent the parasite from long-distance migrations, as was demonstrated in an example of the Mediterranean Sea which represented an effective barrier to gene flow.
- MeSH
- Cestoda genetika MeSH
- druhová specificita MeSH
- interakce hostitele a parazita * MeSH
- mikrosatelitní repetice MeSH
- populační genetika * MeSH
- ptáci parazitologie MeSH
- ryby parazitologie MeSH
- sekvenční analýza DNA MeSH
- tok genů MeSH
- zeměpis MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Etiopie MeSH
- Středozemní moře MeSH
Recent studies show that host switching is much more frequent than originally believed and constitutes an important driver in evolution of host-parasite associations. However, its frequency and ecological mechanisms at the population level have been rarely investigated. We address this issue by analyzing phylogeny and population genetics of an extensive sample, from a broad geographic area, for commonly occurring parasites of the genus Eimeria within the abundant rodent genera Apodemus, Microtus and Myodes, using two molecular markers. At the most basal level, we demonstrate polyphyletic arrangement, i.e. multiple origin, of the rodent-specific clusters within the Eimeria phylogeny, and strong genetic/phylogenetic structure within these lineages determined at least partially by specificities to different host groups. However, a novel and the most important observation is a repeated occurrence of host switches among closely related genetic lineages which may become rapidly fixed. Within the studied model, this phenomenon applies particularly to the switches between the eimerians from Apodemus flavicollis/Apodemus sylvaticus and Apodemus agrarius groups. We show that genetic differentiation and isolation between A. flavicollis/A. sylvaticus and A. agrarius faunas is a secondary recent event and does not reflect host-parasite coevolutionary history. Rather, it provides an example of rapid ecology-based differentiation in the parasite population.
- Klíčová slova
- Coevolution, Ecological fitting, Host specificity, Host switching, Parasite, Rodent,
- MeSH
- biodiverzita * MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- Coccidia klasifikace genetika fyziologie MeSH
- fylogeneze MeSH
- haplotypy genetika MeSH
- hostitelská specificita * MeSH
- interakce hostitele a parazita * genetika MeSH
- Murinae parazitologie MeSH
- populační genetika MeSH
- zeměpis MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
During the Paleolithic period, 10,000-100,000 people lived on the earth; their number exceeded 1 million at the beginning of the Neolithic period, reached 10 million during the Bronze Age, 100 million at the beginning of the Iron Age, 1 billion at the beginning of the 19th century, and 5.7 billion in 1995. The estimated global population will be 10 billion by the middle of the 21st century and is expected to stabilize at around 10-12 billion subsequently. Increased agricultural production helped bring about greater numbers of humanity and the advancement of society with a developing social hierarchy, although life expectancy was low at 22-28 years. In Europe, the Renaissance gradually evolved into the Industrial Revolution, and a demographic revolution accompanied this process. In some countries, population size increased more than five times. Eventually, mortality and fertility levels decreased and life expectancy increased. In Western civilization, increased individualism, secularization, compulsory school attendance, decreased agricultural population, emancipation of women, increased costs of raising children, and social and economic progress ensued. All this was preceded by 18th century conditions, when, in England, capital accumulation led to wealth on the one side and destitution on the other, giving rise to Malthus's famous theory. However, during the 19th century these social inequalities gradually evened out. After World War II, the question arose of whether the populations of other civilizations (Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American, and African) would also undergo a demographic transition and how soon. At any rate, developed country population size, as a percentage of global population, will drop from 22% to 13%, and that of Africa will increase from 12% to 26%, during the 21st century.
- Klíčová slova
- Demographic Factors, Demographic Transition *, Developed Countries *, Developing Countries *, Estimation Technics, Fertility, Fertility Decline *, Historical Survey *, Length Of Life, Life Expectancy *, Mortality, Mortality Decline *, Population, Population Dynamics, Population Forecast *, Population Growth *, Research Methodology,
- MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- dlouhověkost MeSH
- fertilita MeSH
- mortalita * MeSH
- naděje dožití * MeSH
- populace MeSH
- populační dynamika * MeSH
- populační růst * MeSH
- porodnost * MeSH
- předpověď * MeSH
- rozvojové země * MeSH
- statistika jako téma MeSH
- vyspělé země * MeSH
- výzkum MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Population trends in Czechoslovakia in 1982 are reviewed. The growing impact of some irregularities in age distribution, such as the decline in the number of women aged 20 to 24, on fertility and mortality is noted.
- Klíčová slova
- Age Distribution *, Age Factors, Czechoslovakia, Demographic Factors, Demographic Impact *, Developed Countries, Eastern Europe *, Europe, Fertility *, Mortality *, Population, Population Characteristics, Population Dynamics *,
- MeSH
- demografie * MeSH
- fertilita * MeSH
- mortalita * MeSH
- populace MeSH
- populační charakteristiky MeSH
- populační dynamika * MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- věkové rozložení * MeSH
- vyspělé země MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Československo MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
- východní Evropa MeSH
The authors present population projections for the Czech Republic to the year 2010. Forecasts are made of mortality, fertility, migration, the total population, the economically active population, and the post-reproductive population. (SUMMARY IN CZE)
- Klíčová slova
- Adult, Age Factors, Aged *, Czech Republic, Demographic Factors, Developed Countries, Eastern Europe, Economic Factors, Estimation Technics, Europe, Fertility *, Human Resources, Labor Force *, Migration *, Mortality *, Population, Population Characteristics, Population Dynamics, Population Projection *, Population Size *, Research Methodology,
- MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- ekonomika MeSH
- emigrace a imigrace * MeSH
- fertilita * MeSH
- hustota populace * MeSH
- mortalita * MeSH
- populace MeSH
- populační charakteristiky MeSH
- populační dynamika MeSH
- předpověď * MeSH
- senioři * MeSH
- statistika jako téma MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- vyspělé země MeSH
- výzkum MeSH
- zaměstnanost * MeSH
- zdravotničtí pracovníci MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- senioři * MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
- východní Evropa MeSH
The author analyzes population dynamics in the Czech Republic since the nineteenth century. "[The Czech population]...differs presently together with other former socialist countries from remaining European countries, mainly in the worse mortality situation; its improvement is, however, expected. The total number of inhabitants will probably stabilize at the present level or slightly increase, but even...negative growth after 2000 is not excluded." (EXCERPT)
- Klíčová slova
- Comparative Studies *, Czech Republic, Demographic Factors, Developed Countries, Eastern Europe, Estimation Technics, Europe, Historical Survey *, Mortality *, Population, Population Dynamics *, Population Forecast *, Population Size *, Research Methodology, Studies,
- MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- hustota populace * MeSH
- mortalita * MeSH
- populace MeSH
- populační dynamika * MeSH
- předpověď * MeSH
- statistika jako téma MeSH
- vyspělé země MeSH
- výzkum MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- srovnávací studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
- východní Evropa MeSH
The aims of this study were to enable geometric morphometric sex classification using tibial proximal and distal sexual dimorphism and to evaluate the secular trend of tibial shape/form from the early 20th century to the present day. The study samples consisted of 61 adult tibias from an early 20th-century Czech population and 57 three-dimensional tibias from a 21st-century population. Discriminant function analysis with cross-validation was carried out to assess the accuracy of sex classification. Shape analysis revealed significant sex differences in both tibial extremities of the 21st-century sample and in the proximal tibia of the 20th-century population. Sex-based divergence varied between the analyzed samples, raising the issues of population specificity and diachronic change. Classification using tibial form was more successful than using tibial shape. The highest values of correct assignment (91.80% and 88.52%) were found using the form from the early 20th Czech population.
- Klíčová slova
- computed tomography-derived models, forensic science, geometric morphometrics, optical scanning, sexual dimorphism, tibia,
- MeSH
- analýza hlavních komponent MeSH
- dějiny 20. století MeSH
- dějiny 21. století MeSH
- diskriminační analýza MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- počítačová rentgenová tomografie MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- soudní antropologie MeSH
- tibie anatomie a histologie diagnostické zobrazování MeSH
- určení pohlaví podle kostry metody MeSH
- zobrazování trojrozměrné MeSH
- Check Tag
- dějiny 20. století MeSH
- dějiny 21. století MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- historické články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- srovnávací studie MeSH
Population dynamics in Czechoslovakia in 1987 are reviewed. Information is included on fertility, natural increase, mortality, international migration, marriage, divorce, induced abortion, and life expectancy.
- Klíčová slova
- Abortion, Induced *, Birth Rate, Czechoslovakia, Demographic Factors, Developed Countries, Divorce *, Eastern Europe *, Europe, Family Planning, Fertility, Fertility Control, Postconception, Fertility Measurements, Fertility Rate *, International Migration *, Length Of Life, Life Expectancy *, Marriage *, Migration, Mortality *, Natural Increase *, Nuptiality *, Population, Population Dynamics *, Population Growth *,
- MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- dlouhověkost MeSH
- emigrace a imigrace * MeSH
- fertilita MeSH
- indukovaný potrat * MeSH
- manželství * MeSH
- mortalita * MeSH
- naděje dožití * MeSH
- populace MeSH
- populační dynamika * MeSH
- populační růst * MeSH
- porodnost * MeSH
- rozvod * MeSH
- služby plánování rodičovství MeSH
- vyspělé země MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Československo MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
- východní Evropa MeSH