- MeSH
- databáze faktografické * MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
Background: Our previous study analyzed the age trajectory of mortality (ATM) in 14 European countries, while this study aimed at investigating ATM in other continents and in countries with a higher level of mortality. Data from 11 Non-European countries were used. Methods: The number of deaths was extracted from the WHO mortality database. The Halley method was used to calculate the mortality rates in all possible calendar years and all countries combined. This method enables us to combine more countries and more calendar years in one hypothetical population. Results: The age trajectory of total mortality (ATTM) and also ATM due to specific groups of diseases were very similar in the 11 non-European countries and in the 14 European countries. The level of mortality did not affect the main results found in European countries. The inverse proportion was valid for ATTM in non-European countries with two exceptions. Slower or no mortality decrease with age was detected in the first year of life, while the inverse proportion model was valid for the age range (1, 10) years in most of the main chapters of ICD10. Conclusions: The decrease in child mortality with age may be explained as the result of the depletion of individuals with congenital impairment. The majority of deaths up to the age of 10 years were related to congenital impairments, and the decrease in child mortality rate with age was a demonstration of population heterogeneity. The congenital impairments were latent and may cause death even if no congenital impairment was detected.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Background: Mortality rate rapidly decreases with age after birth, and, simultaneously, the spectrum of death causes show remarkable changes with age. This study analyzed age-associated decreases in mortality rate from diseases of all main chapters of the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases. Methods: The number of deaths was extracted from the mortality database of the World Health Organization. As zero cases could be ascertained for a specific age category, the Halley method was used to calculate the mortality rates in all possible calendar years and in all countries combined. Results: All causes mortality from the 1st day of life to the age of 10 years can be represented by an inverse proportion model with a single parameter. High coefficients of determination were observed for total mortality in all populations (arithmetic mean = 0.9942 and standard deviation = 0.0039). Slower or no mortality decrease with age was detected in the 1st year of life, while the inverse proportion method was valid for the age range [1, 10) years in most of all main chapters with three exceptions. The decrease was faster for the chapter "Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period" (XVI).The inverse proportion was valid already from the 1st day for the chapter "Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities" (XVII).The shape of the mortality decrease was very different for the chapter "Neoplasms" (II) and the rates of mortality from neoplasms were age-independent in the age range [1, 10) years in all populations. Conclusion: The theory of congenital individual risks of death is presented and can explain the results. If it is valid, latent congenital impairments may be present among all cases of death that are not related to congenital impairments. All results are based on published data, and the data are presented as a supplement.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Background: In humans, the mortality rate dramatically decreases with age after birth, and the causes of death change significantly during childhood. In the present study, we attempted to explain age-associated decreases in mortality for congenital anomalies of the central nervous system (CACNS), as well as decreases in total mortality with age. We further investigated the age trajectory of mortality in the biologically related category "diseases of the nervous system" (DNS). Methods: The numbers of deaths were extracted from the mortality database of the World Health Organization (WHO) for the following nine countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Because zero cases could be ascertained over the age of 30 years in a specific age category, the Halley method was used to calculate the mortality rates in all possible calendar years and in all countries combined. Results: Total mortality from the first day of life up to the age of 10 years and mortality due to CACNS within the age interval of [0, 90) years can be represented by an inverse proportion with a single parameter. High coefficients of determination were observed for both total mortality (R2 = 0.996) and CACNS mortality (R2 = 0.990). Our findings indicated that mortality rates for DNS slowly decrease with age during the first 2 years of life, following which they decrease in accordance with an inverse proportion up to the age of 10 years. The theory of congenital individual risk (TCIR) may explain these observations based on the extinction of individuals with more severe impairments, as well as the bent curve of DNS, which exhibited an adjusted coefficient of determination of R¯2 = 0.966. Conclusion: The coincidence between the age trajectories of all-cause and CACNS-related mortality may indicate that the overall decrease in mortality after birth is due to the extinction of individuals with more severe impairments. More deaths unrelated to congenital anomalies may be caused by the manifestation of latent congenital impairments during childhood.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Age affects mortality from diseases differently than it affects mortality from external causes, such as accidents. Exclusion of the latter leads to the "all-diseases" category. The age trajectories of mortality from all diseases are studied in the five most populated countries of the EU, and the shape of these 156 age trajectories is investigated in detail. The arithmetic mean of ages where mortality reaches a minimal value is 8.47 years with a 95% confidence interval of [8.08, 8.85] years. Two simple deterministic models fit the age trajectories on the two sides of the mortality minimum. The inverse relationship is valid in all cases prior to this mortality minimum and death rates exactly decreased to three thousandths of its original size during the first 3000 days. After the mortality minimum, the standard Gompertz model fits the data in 63 cases, and the Gompertz model extended by a small quadratic element fits the remaining 93 cases. This analysis indicates that the exponential increase begins before the age of 15 years and that it is overshadowed by non-biological causes. Therefore, the existence of a mechanism switching that would explain the exponential increase in mortality after the age of 35 years is unlikely.
- MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- Evropská unie MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mortalita * MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- statistické modely * MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
BACKGROUND: The answer to the question "At what age does aging begin?" is tightly related to the question "Where is the onset of mortality increase with age?" Age affects mortality rates from all diseases differently than it affects mortality rates from nonbiological causes. Mortality increase with age in adult populations has been modeled by many authors, and little attention has been given to mortality decrease with age after birth. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nonbiological causes are excluded, and the category "all diseases" is studied. It is analyzed in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the period 1994-2011, and all possible models are screened. Age trajectories of mortality are analyzed separately: before the age category where mortality reaches its minimal value and after the age category. RESULTS: Resulting age trajectories from all diseases showed a strong minimum, which was hidden in total mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fitted in 54 of 58 cases before mortality minimum. The Gompertz model with two parameters fitted as mortality increased with age in 17 of 58 cases after mortality minimum, and the Gompertz model with a small positive quadratic term fitted data in the remaining 41 cases. The mean age where mortality reached minimal value was 8 (95% confidence interval 7.05-8.95) years. The figures depict an age where the human population has a minimal risk of death from biological causes. CONCLUSION: Inverse proportion and the Gompertz model fitted data on both sides of the mortality minimum, and three parameters determined the shape of the age-mortality trajectory. Life expectancy should be determined by the two standard Gompertz parameters and also by the single parameter in the model c/x. All-disease mortality represents an alternative tool to study the impact of age. All results are based on published data.
- MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita trendy MeSH
- naděje dožití trendy MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- stárnutí MeSH
- statistické modely MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Skandinávie a severské státy epidemiologie MeSH
Mortality increase with age in adult population has been studied and modeled by many authors, but relatively little attention has been given to mortality decrease with age after birth. Data split in more detailed age categories can newly test mortality decrease with age. Age trajectories of mortality are studied in 20 age categories in the specific age interval 1-365 days. Four basic models mentioned in literature are tested here. The linear model and the linear model with the specific slope -1 in the log-log scale represent the most successful formalism. Mortality indicators describing the first year could be determined by a single parameter of the model with slope -1 in the log-log scale. All conclusions are based on published data which are presented as a supplement.
- MeSH
- algoritmy * MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lineární modely MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mortalita trendy MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- stárnutí * MeSH
- teoretické modely * MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
Age trajectories of total mortality represent an irreplaceable source of information about the relationship between mortality and age. Total mortality includes death from external causes. Age affects mortality from all diseases differently than it affects mortality from external causes. This study examines mortality with external causes excluded. The resulting category of all-diseases is examined as a helpful tool to better understand the relationship between mortality and age. Age trajectories of all-diseases mortality are studied in Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Resulting age trajectories of all-diseases mortality show a strong minimum that is hidden in all-causes mortality. Two deterministic models fit the resulting age trajectories of mortality on either side of the strong mortality minimum. The inverse proportion between mortality and age is used from birth to the age when all-diseases mortality reaches the minimum value. The Gompertz relationship fits age trajectories of all-diseases mortality in 93 out of 183 cases. When extended with a small quadratic element, the Gompertz model is used to fit the remaining 90 cases.
- MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita trendy MeSH
- naděje dožití trendy MeSH
- socioekonomické faktory MeSH
- stárnutí patologie MeSH
- teoretické modely MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- Maďarsko MeSH
- Polsko MeSH
- Rakousko MeSH
- Slovenská republika MeSH
Age trajectories of total mortality represent an irreplaceable source of information about aging. In principle, age affects mortality from all diseases differently than it affects mortality from external causes. External causes (accidents) are excluded here from all causes, and the resultant category "all-diseases" is tested as a helpful tool to better understand the relationship between mortality and age. Age trajectories of all-diseases mortality are studied in the six most populated countries of the South America during 1996-2010. The numbers of deaths for specific causes of death are extracted from the database of WHO, where the ICD-10 revision is used. The all-diseases mortality shows a strong minimum, which is hidden in total mortality. Two simple deterministic models fit the age trajectories of all-diseases mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fits the mortality decreases up to minimum value in all six countries. All previous models describing mortality decline after birth are discussed. Theoretical relationships are derived between the parameter in the first model and standard mortality indicators: Infant mortality, Neonatal mortality, and Postneonatal mortality. The Gompertz model extended with a small positive quadratic element fit the age trajectories of all-diseases mortality after the age of 10 years.
- MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita trendy MeSH
- teoretické modely * MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Jižní Amerika MeSH
Two data groups were analyzed: (1) the exposure rate in the former Czechoslovakia after the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and (2) the decrease of beta activity of an atmospheric fallout sample taken in Bratislava during 24 h on 30 May 1965. Both quantities decreased with the first power of time. This pattern of decrease is explained by applying the same mathematical formalism as is also used to describe the decrease in postnatal mortality with age. Following this formalism, the decrease of total activity with the first power of time could be seen as a consequence of a log-normal distribution of decay constants in the fallout. This differs slightly from earlier results that show the total activity decreasing with a power of 1.2 immediately after the nuclear explosion.
