We compared selected thermal indices in their ability to predict heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during the extraordinary summer 2015. Relatively, novel thermal indices-Universal Thermal Climate Index and Excess Heat Factor (EHF)-were compared with more traditional ones (apparent temperature, simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), and physiologically equivalent temperature). The relationships between thermal indices and all-cause relative mortality deviations from the baseline (excess mortality) were estimated by generalized additive models for the extended summer season (May-September) during 1994-2014. The resulting models were applied to predict excess mortality in 2015 based on observed meteorology, and the mortality estimates by different indices were compared. Although all predictors showed a clear association between thermal conditions and excess mortality, we found important variability in their performance. The EHF formula performed best in estimating the intensity of heat waves and magnitude of heat-impacts on excess mortality on the most extreme days. Afternoon WBGT, on the other hand, was most precise in the selection of heat-alert days during the extended summer season, mainly due to a relatively small number of "false alerts" compared to other predictors. Since the main purpose of heat warning systems is identification of days with an increased risk of heat-related death rather than prediction of exact magnitude of the excess mortality, WBGT seemed to be a slightly favorable predictor for such a system.
- MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- poruchy vyvolané tepelným stresem mortalita MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- teoretické modely * MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
- vítr MeSH
- vlhkost MeSH
- vysoká teplota škodlivé účinky MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- srovnávací studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
Spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is here first employed in assessing heat-related mortality and morbidity in Central Europe. It is applied for examining links between weather patterns and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality and morbidity in an extended summer season (16 May-15 September) during 1994-2009. As in previous studies, two SSC air masses (AMs)-dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)-are associated with significant excess CVD mortality in Prague, while effects on CVD hospital admissions are small and insignificant. Excess mortality for ischaemic heart diseases is more strongly associated with DT, while MT has adverse effect especially on cerebrovascular mortality. Links between the oppressive AMs and excess mortality relate also to conditions on previous days, as DT and MT occur in typical sequences. The highest CVD mortality deviations are found 1 day after a hot spell's onset, when temperature as well as frequency of the oppressive AMs are highest. Following this peak is typically DT- to MT-like weather transition, characterized by decrease in temperature and increase in humidity. The transition between upward (DT) and downward (MT) phases is associated with the largest excess CVD mortality, and the change contributes to the increased and more lagged effects on cerebrovascular mortality. The study highlights the importance of critically evaluating SSC's applicability and benefits within warning systems relative to other synoptic and epidemiological approaches. Only a subset of days with the oppressive AMs is associated with excess mortality, and regression models accounting for possible meteorological and other factors explain little of the mortality variance.
- MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- morbidita MeSH
- počasí * MeSH
- poruchy vyvolané tepelným stresem epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- velkoměsta epidemiologie MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH
- velkoměsta epidemiologie MeSH
This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country's entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0-64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere.
- MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- meteorologické pojmy MeSH
- mortalita * trendy MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- vysoká teplota škodlivé účinky MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- srovnávací studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH
The study examines spatial patterns of effects of high temperature extremes on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic at a district level during 1994-2009. Daily baseline mortality for each district was determined using a single location-stratified generalized additive model. Mean relative deviations of mortality from the baseline were calculated on days exceeding the 90th percentile of mean daily temperature in summer, and they were correlated with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and physical-environmental variables for the districts. Groups of districts with similar characteristics were identified according to socioeconomic status and urbanization level in order to provide a more general picture than possible on the district level. We evaluated lagged patterns of excess mortality after hot spell occurrences in: (i) urban areas vs. predominantly rural areas; and (ii) regions with different overall socioeconomic level. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions, altitude, and urbanization generally affect the spatial distribution of districts with the highest excess cardiovascular mortality, while socioeconomic status did not show a significant effect in the analysis across the Czech Republic as a whole. Only within deprived populations, socioeconomic status played a relevant role as well. After taking into account lagged effects of temperature on excess mortality, we found that the effect of hot spells was significant in highly urbanized regions, while most excess deaths in rural districts may be attributed to harvesting effects.
- MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- městské obyvatelstvo statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- poruchy vyvolané tepelným stresem epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- socioekonomické faktory MeSH
- venkovské obyvatelstvo statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- vysoká teplota škodlivé účinky MeSH
- zeměpis MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH
We compare the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) with other thermal indices in analysing heat- and cold-related effects on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality in two different (urban and rural) regions in the Czech Republic during the 16-year period from 1994-2009. Excess mortality is represented by the number of deaths above expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Air temperature, UTCI, Apparent Temperature (AT) and Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) are applied to identify days with heat and cold stress. We found similar heat effects on CVD mortality for air temperature and the examined thermal indices. Responses of CVD mortality to cold effects as characterised by different indices were much more varied. Particularly important is the finding that air temperature provides a weak cold effect in comparison with the thermal indices in both regions, so its application--still widespread in epidemiological studies--may underestimate the magnitude of cold-related mortality. These findings are important when possible climate change effects on heat- and cold-related mortality are estimated. AT and PET appear to be more universal predictors of heat- and cold- related mortality than UTCI when both urban and rural environments are of concern. UTCI tends to select windy rather than freezing days in winter, though these show little effect on mortality in the urban population. By contrast, significant cold-related mortality in the rural region if UTCI is used shows potential for UTCI to become a useful tool in cold exposure assessments.
- MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci etiologie mortalita MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lineární modely MeSH
- nízká teplota škodlivé účinky MeSH
- vysoká teplota škodlivé účinky MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- srovnávací studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
Several studies have examined the relationship of high and low air temperatures to cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic. Much less is understood about heat-/cold-related cardiovascular morbidity and possible regional differences. This paper compares the effects of warm and cold days on excess mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the city of Prague and a rural region of southern Bohemia during 1994-2009. Population size and age structure are similar in the two regions. The results are evaluated for selected population groups (men and women). Excess mortality (number of deaths) and morbidity (number of hospital admissions) were determined as differences between observed and expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Generally higher relative excess CVD mortality on warm days than on cold days was identified in both regions. In contrast to mortality, weak excess CVD morbidity was observed for both warm and cold days. Different responses of individual CVDs to heat versus cold stress may be caused by the different nature of each CVD and different physiological processes induced by heat or cold stress. The slight differences between Prague and southern Bohemia in response to heat versus cold stress suggest the possible influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors such as the effects of urban heat island and exposure to air pollution, lifestyle differences, and divergence in population structure, which may result in differing vulnerability of urban versus rural population to temperature extremes.
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- hospitalizace statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- městské obyvatelstvo statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- morbidita MeSH
- nízká teplota MeSH
- venkovské obyvatelstvo statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- vysoká teplota MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- multisystémová atrofie MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- kazuistiky MeSH
- přehledy MeSH
- O autorovi
- Dejerine, Jules Joseph, 1849-1917 Autorita
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- Huntingtonova nemoc MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- kazuistiky MeSH
- přehledy MeSH
- O autorovi
- Huntington, George, 1851-1916 Autorita
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- halucinace MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- nemoci mozku MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- kazuistiky MeSH
- přehledy MeSH
