OBJECTIVES: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. METHODS: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. RESULTS: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
BACKGROUND: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. METHODS: We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels. FINDINGS: Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat. INTERPRETATION: Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. FUNDING: Medical Research Council of UK, the Natural Environment Research Council UK, the EU's Horizon 2020, and the EU's Joint Research Center.
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- hodnocení vlivů na zdraví * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- nízká teplota * MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
- vysoká teplota * MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
BACKGROUND: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries. METHODS: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 μm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. RESULTS: Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively. DISCUSSION: We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.
- MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci * MeSH
- látky znečišťující vzduch * toxicita analýza MeSH
- látky znečišťující životní prostředí * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita MeSH
- nemoci dýchací soustavy * MeSH
- pevné částice škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
- vysoká teplota MeSH
- vystavení vlivu životního prostředí škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- znečištění ovzduší * škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- velkoměsta MeSH
BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
OBJECTIVE: To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 406 cities in 20 countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network. POPULATION: Deaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily total mortality (all or non-external causes only). RESULTS: A total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.
- MeSH
- celosvětové zdraví statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- environmentální politika MeSH
- klimatické změny mortalita MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mezinárodní spolupráce MeSH
- mortalita * MeSH
- ozon škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
- vystavení vlivu životního prostředí škodlivé účinky normy MeSH
- znečištění ovzduší škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- multicentrická studie MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- velkoměsta MeSH
BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).
- MeSH
- celosvětové zdraví MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci mortalita MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita * MeSH
- nemoci dýchací soustavy mortalita MeSH
- pevné částice škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- příčina smrti MeSH
- riziko MeSH
- velikost částic MeSH
- vystavení vlivu životního prostředí škodlivé účinky analýza zákonodárství a právo MeSH
- znečištění ovzduší škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- hodnotící studie MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
RATIONALE: Evidence of short-term effects of ultrafine particles (UFP) on health is still inconsistent and few multicenter studies have been conducted so far especially in Europe. OBJECTIVES: Within the UFIREG project, we investigated the short-term effects of UFP and fine particulate matter (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm [PM2.5]) on daily cause-specific hospital admissions in five Central and Eastern European cities using harmonized protocols for measurements and analyses. METHODS: Daily counts of cause-specific hospital admissions focusing on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were obtained for Augsburg and Dresden (Germany), 2011-2012; Chernivtsi (Ukraine), 2013 to March 2014; and Ljubljana (Slovenia) and Prague (Czech Republic), 2012-2013. Air pollution and meteorologic data were measured at fixed monitoring sites in all cities. We analyzed city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted Poisson regression models and pooled the city-specific effect estimates using metaanalysis methods. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A 2,750 particles/cm(3) increase (average interquartile range across all cities) in the 6-day average of UFP indicated a delayed and prolonged increase in the pooled relative risk of respiratory hospital admissions (3.4% [95% confidence interval, -1.7 to 8.8%]). We also found increases in the pooled relative risk of cardiovascular (exposure average of lag 2-5, 1.8% [0.1-3.4%]) and respiratory (6-d average exposure, 7.5% [4.9-10.2%]) admissions per 12.4 μg/m(3) increase (average interquartile range) in PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated delayed and prolonged effects of UFP exposure on respiratory hospital admissions in Central and Eastern Europe. Cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions increased in association with an increase in PM2.5. Further multicenter studies are needed using harmonized UFP measurements to draw definite conclusions on health effects of UFP.
- MeSH
- hospitalizace statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci epidemiologie MeSH
- látky znečišťující vzduch analýza MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- pevné částice * MeSH
- poruchy dýchání epidemiologie MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
- zdraví ve městech statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- znečištění ovzduší statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- multicentrická studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH
- Německo epidemiologie MeSH
- Slovinsko epidemiologie MeSH
- Ukrajina epidemiologie MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
BACKGROUND: Evidence on health effects of ultrafine particles (UFP) is still limited as they are usually not monitored routinely. The few epidemiological studies on UFP and (cause-specific) mortality so far have reported inconsistent results. OBJECTIVES: The main objective of the UFIREG project was to investigate the short-term associations between UFP and fine particulate matter (PM)<2.5μm (PM2.5) and daily (cause-specific) mortality in five European Cities. We also examined the effects of PM<10μm (PM10) and coarse particles (PM2.5-10). METHODS: UFP (20-100nm), PM and meteorological data were measured in Dresden and Augsburg (Germany), Prague (Czech Republic), Ljubljana (Slovenia) and Chernivtsi (Ukraine). Daily counts of natural and cardio-respiratory mortality were collected for all five cities. Depending on data availability, the following study periods were chosen: Augsburg and Dresden 2011-2012, Ljubljana and Prague 2012-2013, Chernivtsi 2013-March 2014. The associations between air pollutants and health outcomes were assessed using confounder-adjusted Poisson regression models examining single (lag 0-lag 5) and cumulative lags (lag 0-1, lag 2-5, and lag 0-5). City-specific estimates were pooled using meta-analyses methods. RESULTS: Results indicated a delayed and prolonged association between UFP and respiratory mortality (9.9% [95%-confidence interval: -6.3%; 28.8%] increase in association with a 6-day average increase of 2750particles/cm(3) (average interquartile range across all cities)). Cardiovascular mortality increased by 3.0% [-2.7%; 9.1%] and 4.1% [0.4%; 8.0%] in association with a 12.4μg/m(3) and 4.7μg/m(3) increase in the PM2.5- and PM2.5-10-averages of lag 2-5. CONCLUSIONS: We observed positive but not statistically significant associations between prolonged exposures to UFP and respiratory mortality, which were independent of particle mass exposures. Further multi-centre studies are needed investigating several years to produce more precise estimates on health effects of UFP.
- MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci mortalita MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- látky znečišťující vzduch škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- pevné částice škodlivé účinky analýza MeSH
- poruchy dýchání mortalita MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- příčina smrti MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- teoretické modely MeSH
- velikost částic * MeSH
- velkoměsta epidemiologie MeSH
- znečištění ovzduší škodlivé účinky MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa epidemiologie MeSH
- velkoměsta epidemiologie MeSH
