Multistability
Dotaz
Zobrazit nápovědu
OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are highly prevalent sexually transmitted infections, notably associated with various cancers. This study analyses the health and economic impacts of HPV-associated diseases in the Czech Republic and evaluates the cost-effectiveness of a catch-up vaccination program. METHODS: Utilizing a Markov multistate model, the study assesses the lifetime impacts and costs related to HPV infections. Cohorts of ages 15-21 were simulated to assess the impact of catch-up vaccination outside the 11-year-old age group. RESULTS: The total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the female and male cohorts (together 119,362 individuals) were higher in the vaccination scenario compared to the non-vaccination scenario. The increase in QALYs was 122,246 and 200,852 respectively, when considering the actual vaccination rates. Across both cohorts, 329 cancer-related deaths were prevented. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis for the female population, vaccination was the dominant strategy in 99.3% of iterations. In the male population, vaccination was the dominant strategy in 80.3% of iterations. The implementation of catch-up vaccination for the 15-21 age group significantly increased QALY gains and reduced life-years-lost (LYLs). In the female cohort, all analysed rates of catch-up vaccination were the dominant strategy, while in the male cohort, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) remained consistently below 42,000 CZK/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The catch-up vaccination program for 15-21-year-olds is cost-effective and can prevent a significant number of HPV-related cancers in both men and women.
- MeSH
- analýza nákladové efektivity MeSH
- analýza nákladů a výnosů * MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- infekce papilomavirem * prevence a kontrola ekonomika MeSH
- kvalitativně upravené roky života * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Markovovy řetězce * MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- očkovací programy ekonomika MeSH
- osobní újma zaviněná nemocí MeSH
- vakcíny proti papilomavirům * ekonomika aplikace a dávkování MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
Spontaneously fluctuating brain activity patterns that emerge at rest have been linked to the brain's health and cognition. Despite detailed descriptions of the spatio-temporal brain patterns, our understanding of their generative mechanism is still incomplete. Using a combination of computational modeling and dynamical systems analysis we provide a mechanistic description of the formation of a resting state manifold via the network connectivity. We demonstrate that the symmetry breaking by the connectivity creates a characteristic flow on the manifold, which produces the major data features across scales and imaging modalities. These include spontaneous high-amplitude co-activations, neuronal cascades, spectral cortical gradients, multistability, and characteristic functional connectivity dynamics. When aggregated across cortical hierarchies, these match the profiles from empirical data. The understanding of the brain's resting state manifold is fundamental for the construction of task-specific flows and manifolds used in theories of brain function. In addition, it shifts the focus from the single recordings towards the brain's capacity to generate certain dynamics characteristic of health and pathology.
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- magnetická rezonanční tomografie metody MeSH
- mapování mozku metody MeSH
- modely neurologické * MeSH
- mozek * fyziologie diagnostické zobrazování MeSH
- nervová síť fyziologie MeSH
- odpočinek * fyziologie MeSH
- počítačová simulace MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
PURPOSE: Exploratory study to evaluate the association of different phenotypes of right ventricular (RV) involvement and mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU) in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of longitudinal data from the multicenter ECHO-COVID observational study in ICU patients who underwent at least two echocardiography examinations. Echocardiography phenotypes were acute cor pulmonale (ACP, RV cavity dilatation with paradoxical septal motion), RV failure (RVF, RV cavity dilatation and systemic venous congestion), and RV dysfunction (tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion ≤ 16 mm). Accelerated failure time model and multistate model were used for analysis. RESULTS: Of 281 patients who underwent 948 echocardiography studies during ICU stay, 189 (67%) were found to have at least 1 type of RV involvements during one or several examinations: ACP (105/281, 37.4%), RVF (140/256, 54.7%) and/or RV dysfunction (74/255, 29%). Patients with all examinations displaying ACP had survival time shortened by 0.479 [0.284-0.803] times when compared to patients with all examinations depicting no ACP (P = 0.005). RVF showed a trend towards shortened survival time by a factor of 0.642 [0.405-1.018] (P = 0.059), whereas the impact of RV dysfunction on survival time was inconclusive (P = 0.451). Multistate analysis showed that patients might transit in and out of RV involvement, and those who exhibited ACP in their last critical care echocardiography (CCE) examination had the highest risk of mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 3.25 [2.38-4.45], P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: RV involvement is prevalent in patients ventilated for COVID-19 ARDS. Different phenotypes of RV involvement might lead to different ICU mortality, with ACP having the worst outcome.
AIMS: In the randomized, placebo-controlled Colchicine Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial (COLCOT) of 4745 patients enrolled within 30 days after myocardial infarction (MI), low-dose colchicine (0.5 mg once daily) reduced the incidence of the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, MI, stroke, or urgent hospitalization for angina leading to coronary revascularization. To assess the in-trial period and lifetime cost-effectiveness of low-dose colchicine therapy compared to placebo in post-MI patients on standard-of-care therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: A multistate Markov model was developed incorporating the primary efficacy and safety results from COLCOT, as well as healthcare costs and utilities from the Canadian healthcare system perspective. All components of the primary outcome, non-cardiovascular deaths, and pneumonia were included as health states in the model as both primary and recurrent events. In the main analysis, a deterministic approach was used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the trial period (24 months) and lifetime (20 years). Over the in-trial period, the addition of colchicine to post-MI standard-of-care treatment decreased the mean overall per-patient costs by 47%, from $502 to $265 Canadian dollar (CAD), and increased the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from 1.30 to 1.34. The lifetime per-patient costs were further reduced (69%) and QALYs increased with colchicine therapy (from 8.82 to 11.68). As a result, both in-trial and lifetime ICERs indicated colchicine therapy was a dominant strategy. CONCLUSION: Cost-effectiveness analyses indicate that the addition of colchicine to standard-of-care therapy after MI is economically dominant and therefore generates cost savings.
- MeSH
- analýza nákladů a výnosů MeSH
- infarkt myokardu * komplikace farmakoterapie MeSH
- kolchicin * terapeutické užití MeSH
- kvalitativně upravené roky života MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- randomizované kontrolované studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Kanada MeSH
Dynamics underlying epileptic seizures span multiple scales in space and time, therefore, understanding seizure mechanisms requires identifying the relations between seizure components within and across these scales, together with the analysis of their dynamical repertoire. In this view, mathematical models have been developed, ranging from single neuron to neural population. In this study, we consider a neural mass model able to exactly reproduce the dynamics of heterogeneous spiking neural networks. We combine mathematical modeling with structural information from non invasive brain imaging, thus building large-scale brain network models to explore emergent dynamics and test the clinical hypothesis. We provide a comprehensive study on the effect of external drives on neuronal networks exhibiting multistability, in order to investigate the role played by the neuroanatomical connectivity matrices in shaping the emergent dynamics. In particular, we systematically investigate the conditions under which the network displays a transition from a low activity regime to a high activity state, which we identify with a seizure-like event. This approach allows us to study the biophysical parameters and variables leading to multiple recruitment events at the network level. We further exploit topological network measures in order to explain the differences and the analogies among the subjects and their brain regions, in showing recruitment events at different parameter values. We demonstrate, along with the example of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) connectomes of 20 healthy subjects and 15 epileptic patients, that individual variations in structural connectivity, when linked with mathematical dynamic models, have the capacity to explain changes in spatiotemporal organization of brain dynamics, as observed in network-based brain disorders. In particular, for epileptic patients, by means of the integration of the clinical hypotheses on the epileptogenic zone (EZ), i.e., the local network where highly synchronous seizures originate, we have identified the sequence of recruitment events and discussed their links with the topological properties of the specific connectomes. The predictions made on the basis of the implemented set of exact mean-field equations turn out to be in line with the clinical pre-surgical evaluation on recruited secondary networks.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Infectious diseases can seriously impact dynamics of their host species. In this study, we model and analyze an interaction between a sexually transmitted infection and its animal host population affected by a mate-finding Allee effect. Since mating drives both host reproduction and infection transmission, the Allee effect shapes the transmission rate of the infection which we show takes a saturating form. Our model combining sexually transmitted infections with the mate-finding Allee effect in the host produces quite rich dynamics, including oscillations, several multistability regimes, and infection-induced host extinction. However, many of these complex patterns are restricted to a relatively narrow parameter range. We find that the host extinction occurs at intermediate levels of infection virulence, as well as for Allee effect strengths much lower than when the infection is absent. In both cases, a sequence of events comprising destabilization of an endemic equilibrium, growth of oscillation amplitude, and a heteroclinic bifurcation forms an underlying mechanism. We apply our model to the feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) in domestic cats.
- MeSH
- biologické modely * MeSH
- hustota populace MeSH
- infekční nemoci MeSH
- interakce hostitele a patogenu * MeSH
- kočičí AIDS přenos virologie MeSH
- kočky MeSH
- populační dynamika MeSH
- populační růst MeSH
- sexuálně přenosné nemoci MeSH
- virus kočičí imunodeficience * MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- kočky MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
An increased number of cases of salmonellosis caused by the rare serotype Mikawasima was noted in the years 2012 and 2013 in the Czech Republic. A potential on-going outbreak caused by this serotype in European countries has also been reported. Altogether 14 human and 1 environmental isolates from the year 2012 and 11 human isolates from the year 2013 from different locations of the Czech Republic were sent to our laboratory for typing. Macrorestriction analysis together with antimicrobial susceptibility testing and PCR for ESBL and plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance detection were performed to compare our isolates. Twenty-one isolates created two very similar clusters and 5 isolates had different profiles. Twenty-five isolates were fully susceptible to all agents used. One isolate showed resistance to 12 microbial agents and possessed blaTEM, blaSHV, blaOXA, blaCTX-M and qnrB genes.
- MeSH
- antibakteriální látky farmakologie MeSH
- beta-laktamová rezistence MeSH
- epidemický výskyt choroby * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Salmonella klasifikace účinky léků genetika izolace a purifikace MeSH
- salmonelóza epidemiologie mikrobiologie MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
... Parametric Models and Related Topics Relative Risk (Cox) Regression Models Competing Risks and Multistate ... ... Competing Risks and Multistate Models 247 -- 8.1 Introduction, 247 -- 8.2 Competing Risks, 248 -- 8.3 ...
Wiley series in probability and statistics
2nd ed. xiii, 439 s.
- Klíčová slova
- Analýza dat, Analýza statistická, Regrese,
- Konspekt
- Statistika
- NLK Obory
- statistika, zdravotnická statistika
... The multistate model where a life history is described as the subject moving from state to state is the ...
Statistics for biology and health
1st ed. xvii, 542 s.