Interrupted time series analysis
Dotaz
Zobrazit nápovědu
OBJECTIVES: Imposing taxes on unhealthy goods can generate income, raise people's health awareness, and eventually decrease the prevalence of chronic diseases. Our aim was to assess the impact of Hungary's public health product tax (PHPT) since its implementation in September 2011. Differences in purchasing habits between households with different income statuses were also compared. METHODS: A retrospective, descriptive analysis of tax bases and income was carried out, and an interrupted time series analysis using the generalised least squares method was performed to examine the changes in trends regarding the purchase of taxable products before and after the implementation of the tax. The amount of tax base (in kilograms or litres), income (in HUF and EUR), and annual purchased quantity of food and beverage groups per household were assessed. Data were derived from the National Tax and Customs Administration of Hungary and the Hungarian Household Budget and Living Conditions Surveys. The study sample was composed of households who participated in the surveys (mean = 8,359, SD = 1,146) between 2006 and 2018. RESULTS: The households' tax bases and incomes increased constantly (with a few exceptions). The total revenue was 19.49 billion HUF (67.37 million EUR) in 2012 and 59.19 billion HUF (168.55 million EUR) in 2020. However, the households' purchasing habits did not change as expected. A significant short-term decrease (between 2012 and 2013) in purchasing unhealthy goods was observed for three groups: soft drinks (p = 0.009), jams (p = 0.047), and fruit juices (p = 0.038). Only soft drinks showed a significant decreasing trend in the post-intervention period between 2012 and 2018 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that the PHPT did not decrease households' unhealthy food purchasing trend, although it has a positive effect as it can create revenue for health care and health-promoting programmes.
- MeSH
- analýza přerušované časové série MeSH
- daně * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- nápoje MeSH
- obchod MeSH
- retrospektivní studie MeSH
- veřejné zdravotnictví * MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Maďarsko MeSH
INTRODUCTION: Research on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol sales and per capita consumption show mixed findings. The present study of alcohol sales in Czechia attempts to account for this heterogeneity by investigating three types of interventions: (i) limits on the movement of people into the country (i.e., tourism); (ii) social mobility and assembly restrictions; and (iii) restrictions on alcohol sales. METHODS: We used general additive models to assess the relationship between alcohol sales and COVID-19-related restrictions that were specific to alcohol outlets and general restrictions measured by the Government Response Stringency Index. New COVID-19 cases and the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists were also included in the models. RESULTS: The analysis of total sales revenues show that the overall amount of alcohol sold in the Czech Republic decreased due to the COVID-19 related measures and the decrease is best explained by the Government Response Stringency Index. We did not find any relationship between alcohol sales and the number of new COVID-19 cases. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The decline in total alcohol sales resulting from the COVID-19 restrictions was not just the result of reduced tourism and restrictions on physical availability of alcohol, but also of restrictions limiting social encounters. This should be considered in future research comparing the trends in different countries and incorporated into plans for controlling the spread of communicable diseases in future epidemics.
- MeSH
- alkoholické nápoje * ekonomika MeSH
- analýza přerušované časové série MeSH
- cestování MeSH
- COVID-19 * epidemiologie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- obchod * trendy ekonomika statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- pandemie MeSH
- pití alkoholu * epidemiologie ekonomika MeSH
- turistika MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
In the year 2010 a continual radon measurement was established at Mladeč Caves in the Czech Republic using a continual radon monitor RADIM3A. In order to model radon time series in the years 2010-15, the Box-Jenkins Methodology, often used in econometrics, was applied. Because of the behavior of radon concentrations (RCs), a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) has been chosen to model the measured time series. This model uses the time series seasonality, previously acquired values and delayed atmospheric parameters, to forecast RC. The developed model for RC time series is called regARIMA(5,1,3). Model residuals could be retrospectively compared with seismic evidence of local or global earthquakes, which occurred during the RCs measurement. This technique enables us to asses if continuously measured RC could serve an earthquake precursor.
- MeSH
- analýza přerušované časové série MeSH
- jeskyně MeSH
- monitorování radiace metody MeSH
- prediktivní hodnota testů MeSH
- radioaktivní látky znečišťující půdu analýza MeSH
- radon analýza MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- zemětřesení * MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
Anomalies in the radon (222Rn) releases in underground environments are one of the phenomena that can be observed before earthquake occurrence. Continuous measurements of radon activity concentration, and of meteorological parameters that influence the gas emission, were performed in three Slovak and Czech caves during 1-y period (1 July 2016-30 June 2017). The radon activity concentration in caves shows seasonal variations, with maxima reached during summer months. The anomalies in the radon time series are identified using a combination of three mathematical methods: multiple linear regression, empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression. The radon anomaly periods were compared with earthquake occurrences in Europe. Coincidences between both phenomena were found, since all monitored caves reflect contemporaneous local tectonic changes. The results indicate that radon continuous monitoring could assist a better understanding of radon emissions, along active tectonic structures, during seismic events.
- MeSH
- analýza přerušované časové série MeSH
- jeskyně * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- monitorování radiace metody MeSH
- plyny analýza MeSH
- radioaktivní látky znečišťující půdu analýza MeSH
- radon analýza MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- zemětřesení statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- Slovenská republika MeSH
Background: Predicted increases in suicide were not generally observed in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the picture may be changing and patterns might vary across demographic groups. We aimed to provide a timely, granular picture of the pandemic's impact on suicides globally. Methods: We identified suicide data from official public-sector sources for countries/areas-within-countries, searching websites and academic literature and contacting data custodians and authors as necessary. We sent our first data request on 22nd June 2021 and stopped collecting data on 31st October 2021. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to model the association between the pandemic's emergence and total suicides and suicides by sex-, age- and sex-by-age in each country/area-within-country. We compared the observed and expected numbers of suicides in the pandemic's first nine and first 10-15 months and used meta-regression to explore sources of variation. Findings: We sourced data from 33 countries (24 high-income, six upper-middle-income, three lower-middle-income; 25 with whole-country data, 12 with data for area(s)-within-the-country, four with both). There was no evidence of greater-than-expected numbers of suicides in the majority of countries/areas-within-countries in any analysis; more commonly, there was evidence of lower-than-expected numbers. Certain sex, age and sex-by-age groups stood out as potentially concerning, but these were not consistent across countries/areas-within-countries. In the meta-regression, different patterns were not explained by countries' COVID-19 mortality rate, stringency of public health response, economic support level, or presence of a national suicide prevention strategy. Nor were they explained by countries' income level, although the meta-regression only included data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and there were suggestions from the ITS analyses that lower-middle-income countries fared less well. Interpretation: Although there are some countries/areas-within-countries where overall suicide numbers and numbers for certain sex- and age-based groups are greater-than-expected, these countries/areas-within-countries are in the minority. Any upward movement in suicide numbers in any place or group is concerning, and we need to remain alert to and respond to changes as the pandemic and its mental health and economic consequences continue. Funding: None.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis, which are typically transmitted via respiratory droplets, are leading causes of invasive diseases, including bacteraemic pneumonia and meningitis, and of secondary infections subsequent to post-viral respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of invasive disease due to these pathogens during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this prospective analysis of surveillance data, laboratories in 26 countries and territories across six continents submitted data on cases of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis from Jan 1, 2018, to May, 31, 2020, as part of the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Initiative. Numbers of weekly cases in 2020 were compared with corresponding data for 2018 and 2019. Data for invasive disease due to Streptococcus agalactiae, a non-respiratory pathogen, were collected from nine laboratories for comparison. The stringency of COVID-19 containment measures was quantified using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Changes in population movements were assessed using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. Interrupted time-series modelling quantified changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in 2020 relative to when containment measures were imposed. FINDINGS: 27 laboratories from 26 countries and territories submitted data to the IRIS Initiative for S pneumoniae (62 837 total cases), 24 laboratories from 24 countries submitted data for H influenzae (7796 total cases), and 21 laboratories from 21 countries submitted data for N meningitidis (5877 total cases). All countries and territories had experienced a significant and sustained reduction in invasive diseases due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in early 2020 (Jan 1 to May 31, 2020), coinciding with the introduction of COVID-19 containment measures in each country. By contrast, no significant changes in the incidence of invasive S agalactiae infections were observed. Similar trends were observed across most countries and territories despite differing stringency in COVID-19 control policies. The incidence of reported S pneumoniae infections decreased by 68% at 4 weeks (incidence rate ratio 0·32 [95% CI 0·27-0·37]) and 82% at 8 weeks (0·18 [0·14-0·23]) following the week in which significant changes in population movements were recorded. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of COVID-19 containment policies and public information campaigns likely reduced transmission of S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis, leading to a significant reduction in life-threatening invasive diseases in many countries worldwide. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (UK), Robert Koch Institute (Germany), Federal Ministry of Health (Germany), Pfizer, Merck, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (Ireland), SpID-Net project (Ireland), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (European Union), Horizon 2020 (European Commission), Ministry of Health (Poland), National Programme of Antibiotic Protection (Poland), Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Poland), Agencia de Salut Pública de Catalunya (Spain), Sant Joan de Deu Foundation (Spain), Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (Sweden), Swedish Research Council (Sweden), Region Stockholm (Sweden), Federal Office of Public Health of Switzerland (Switzerland), and French Public Health Agency (France).
- MeSH
- analýza přerušované časové série MeSH
- bakteriální infekce epidemiologie přenos MeSH
- COVID-19 * prevence a kontrola MeSH
- Haemophilus influenzae MeSH
- incidence MeSH
- infekce dýchací soustavy epidemiologie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Neisseria meningitidis MeSH
- prospektivní studie MeSH
- Streptococcus agalactiae MeSH
- Streptococcus pneumoniae MeSH
- surveillance populace MeSH
- veřejné zdravotnictví - praxe MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
Unfavorable health trends among the lowly educated have recently been reported from the United States. We analyzed health trends by education in European countries, paying particular attention to the possibility of recent trend interruptions, including interruptions related to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We collected and harmonized data on mortality from ca 1980 to ca 2014 for 17 countries covering 9.8 million deaths and data on self-reported morbidity from ca 2002 to ca 2014 for 27 countries covering 350,000 survey respondents. We used interrupted time-series analyses to study changes over time and country-fixed effects analyses to study the impact of crisis-related economic conditions on health outcomes. Recent trends were more favorable than in previous decades, particularly in Eastern Europe, where mortality started to decline among lowly educated men and where the decline in less-than-good self-assessed health accelerated, resulting in some narrowing of health inequalities. In Western Europe, mortality has continued to decline among the lowly and highly educated, and although the decline of less-than-good self-assessed health slowed in countries severely hit by the financial crisis, this affected lowly and highly educated equally. Crisis-related economic conditions were not associated with widening health inequalities. Our results show that the unfavorable trends observed in the United States are not found in Europe. There has also been no discernible short-term impact of the crisis on health inequalities at the population level. Both findings suggest that European countries have been successful in avoiding an aggravation of health inequalities.
- MeSH
- analýza přerušované časové série statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- disparity zdravotní péče ekonomika statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- disparity zdravotního stavu MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- ekonomická recese statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- sebezhodnocení (psychologie) MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- socioekonomické faktory MeSH
- zpráva o sobě MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
Ixodes ricinus is a tick that transmits the pathogens of Lyme and several arboviral diseases. Pathogens invade the tick midgut, disseminate through the hemolymph, and are transmitted to the vertebrate host via the salivary glands; subverting these processes could be used to interrupt pathogen transfer. Here, we use massive de novo sequencing to characterize the transcriptional dynamics of the salivary and midgut tissues of nymphal and adult I. ricinus at various time points after attachment on the vertebrate host. Members of a number of gene families show stage- and time-specific expression. We hypothesize that gene expression switching may be under epigenetic control and, in support of this, identify 34 candidate proteins that modify histones. I. ricinus-secreted proteins are encoded by genes that have a non-synonymous to synonymous mutation rate even greater than immune-related genes. Midgut transcriptome (mialome) analysis reveals several enzymes associated with protein, carbohydrate, and lipid digestion, transporters and channels that might be associated with nutrient uptake, and immune-related transcripts including antimicrobial peptides. This publicly available dataset supports the identification of protein and gene targets for biochemical and physiological studies that exploit the transmission lifecycle of this disease vector for preventative and therapeutic purposes.
- MeSH
- anotace sekvence MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- fylogeneze MeSH
- genetická transkripce * MeSH
- klíště klasifikace genetika MeSH
- orgánová specificita genetika MeSH
- polymorfismus genetický MeSH
- shluková analýza MeSH
- slinné žlázy metabolismus MeSH
- stanovení celkové genové exprese MeSH
- střeva metabolismus MeSH
- transkriptom MeSH
- výpočetní biologie MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural MeSH
BACKGROUND: The city of Ostrava and its surroundings belong to the most long-therm polluted areas in the Czech Republic and Europe. For identification of health risk, the World Health Organization recommends a theoretical estimation of increased short-term PM10 concentrations effect on hospital admissions for cardiac complaints based on a 0.6% increase per 10 µg.m(-3) PM10 and 1.14% increase for respiratory causes. The goal of the present study is to verify the percentage increase of morbidity due to cardiovascular and respiratory causes, as per WHO recommendations for health risk assessment, in the population of Ostrava. METHODS: The input data include data on PM10 air pollution, meteorological data, the absolute number of hospital admissions for acute cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in the period 2010-2012. To examine the association between air pollution and health outcomes the time series Poisson regression adjusted for covari-ates was used. RESULTS: A significant relationship was found between the cardiovascular hospital admissions (percentage increase of 1.24% per 10 µg.m(-3)) and values of PM10 less than 150 µg.m(-3) in the basic model, although after adjustment for other factors, this relationship was no longer significant. A significant relationship was also observed for respiratory causes of hospital admissions in the basic model. Contrary to cardiovascular hospitalization, the relationship between respiratory hospital admissions and PM10 values below 150 µg.m(-3) (percentage increase of 1.52%) remained statistically significant after adjustment for other factors. CONCLUSIONS: The observed significant relationship between hospital admissions for respiratory causes was consistent with the results of large European and American studies.
- MeSH
- akutní nemoc MeSH
- analýza přerušované časové série MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- hospitalizace statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci epidemiologie MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- látky znečišťující vzduch škodlivé účinky MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- nemoci dýchací soustavy epidemiologie MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- pevné částice škodlivé účinky MeSH
- počasí MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- průmysl MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- vystavení vlivu životního prostředí škodlivé účinky MeSH
- znečištění ovzduší škodlivé účinky MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH
Organophosphate (OP)-based pesticides and nerve agents are highly toxic compounds which interrupt the catalytic mechanism of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) by phosphorylating the hydroxyl moiety of serine residue. The inhibited enzyme can be reactivated by the nucleophilic action of oxime reactivators. To analyze the effect of different AChE sources on reactivation efficacy of reactivators, several in vivo studies have carried out using variety of AChE sources like pig, rat and monkey. Investigations on species differences provide a better insight for the development of new reactivators. Hence, present study was mainly targeted on comparative analysis of the reactivation of electric eel and human AChE inhibited by different OP. A series of butene-linked bis-pyridinium mono oximes which vary in functional groups present at the second pyridinium ring have been examined against sarin, VX, tabun and ethyl-paraoxon-poisoned AChE. In case of tabun-inhibited AChEs, tested oximes were better than reference oximes. For VX-poisoned human AChE, reactivator K251 (kr2;1.51 mM (-) (1 )min (-) (1)) showed good reactivation efficacy with standard oximes. Studies stipulated that butene-linked oximes consisting of different functional moieties are good reactivators and found to have better efficacy to reactivate nerve agent-inhibited human AChE in comparison to eel AChE.
- MeSH
- acetylcholinesterasa metabolismus MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- cholinesterasové inhibitory farmakologie MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- Electrophorus MeSH
- erytrocytární membrána účinky léků enzymologie MeSH
- kinetika MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- organofosfáty farmakologie MeSH
- oximy farmakologie MeSH
- reaktivátory cholinesterasy farmakologie MeSH
- vztah mezi dávkou a účinkem léčiva MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH